(2024 Playoffs, Round 2) Game 1 Stray Observations: Colorado beats Dallas 4-3
It was 3-0.
From the toughest (Vegas) to the most aesthetically-pleasing (Colorado), Dallas is up against a real rogue’s gallery. The first game would always come down to whether or not the Avalanche could force the Stars into a brutally fast pace, and wear them down after their brutal seven-game series with Vegas, or whether ‘rested legs’ might be Dallas’ accidental antidote the way it was for Boston against Florida in their opening tilt on Monday night.
Instead it was something much worse: lost opportunity. Dallas blew a three-goal lead, and that was really the long and short of it. There aren’t any excuses or silver linings to something like that, regardless of what game it is. They blew a three-goal lead, and that was the story, even more than the embellishment call (although we’ll get to that.)
For sure, there was positives, and we’ll get to those too. But if Game 1 made anything clear, it’s that if Dallas ends up winning, it’ll be with depth. It can’t just be Wyatt Johnston taking over a shift, each and every game. It has to be the rest of the team with the depth that so-defined their regular season. That worrying part is that said depth has been missing for longer than just tonight’s game. Conversely, Colorado’s depth has been a sudden calling card, with the Miles Wood overtime goal being the ultimate exclamation mark on it.
It is, of course, still just one game. But for now, it’s hard to focus on the big picture when the short term feels so malignant.
And with that, onto the strays!
Wyatt Johnston: Nothing’s Changed
As I mentioned on Twitter, Johnston’s 3.07 playoff points per 60 for a 20-year old has him ranked among 9th among his 20-year old playoff cohorts since 2007. He’s also tied with Mike Modano and Brian Bellows with nine goals by a 20-year old for the franchise. It’s nuts.
Anything to add? Yea. This isn’t even his final form. And I’m not even talking about potential improvements he’s able to make in his game, but also his linemates. A full season with Logan Stankoven or Mavrik Bourque are gonna elevate him even more. For all the gushing, I don’t think he’s a 100-point player though. Because he’s incapable? Hey, if Ryan Nugent Hopkins could do it…no, I think it has more to do with the fact that with very rare exceptions, scoring that many points typically requires a a certain degree of selfishness. Johnston just isn’t that type of player. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen him cheat a route.
Special teams
Special teams was a factor in the Vegas series, but largely because it was a way for the respective teams to gain that additional edge. In this series, special teams is gonna be more about momentum, as Colorado is much more dangerous, and thus can leverage it to either get back into a game, or pad a potential lead. In a way, that will make it simultaneously easier, and tougher to manage leads for Dallas. Players like MacKinnon and Makar don’t make it a mere matter of identifying optimal tactics. If anything,
Defense vs. MacKinnon and Co.
For the most part, I thought Dallas’ d-core did a solid job against the top line. However, the player they seemed to have the most trouble with was Valeri Nichushkin. He’s one of the few players giving Chris Tanev fits, and I suspect it’s due to the fact that Nuke is so strong, and smart on the forecheck (and he has eight goals so far in these playoffs!). He’s also one of the few players who can win physical battles versus Tanev. However, they’d be wise to keep their eye on more than MacKinnon and Rantanen. I thought Mittelstadt had some good looks. His game isn’t as obvious, but he and Lehkonen look like players you can expect to hit the scoresheet.
That embellishment call
My problem with calling embellishment is that you’d be hard pressed to think of anything resembling consistency across the league. Even on plays where the embellishment is obvious, it rarely happens. But we already know why the call happened. The refs weren’t about to give Dallas the disproportionate advantage by giving them a power play with five minutes left in the third. That would have been true if the roles were reversed. This is the sadsack reality of the NHL officiating, and one of the reasons why I tend to avoid talking about it.
Hintz: A modest proposal
Hintz will dominate the headlines not just because he needs to show up, but because this is the series where Dallas really needs his speed. He’s one of the few forwards who can turn Colorado’s speed against them, and he’s also supposed to be Dallas’ top forward. This is one of those rare instances where IF he really is nursing some kind of injury, give him the game off, not as a healthy scratch but as genuine maintenance. See if Dallas rallies in his absence. The worrying part about Hintz isn’t even that he looks good or bad, but that he’s completely invisible. Again, this isn’t a hot take, nor am I advocating anything — only that I think it would benefit Hintz and possibly the team if he’s truly ailing from something.
The Colorado perspective
If you’re the Avalanche, you’re feeling pretty good. Except for a brief outburst, Colorado seemed to hold the overall edge in play.
Something I discussed in the preview of this series is that while Colorado plays a freewheeling style, they’re still pretty disciplined through the neutral zone, and their speed helps them gap up when things get discombobulated.
More than that, I think you’re happy with how your d-core played. Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Sam Girard, Josh Manson, and Sean Walker all played poised, yet heavy games, with the highlight being Makar being Makar, and that goal Manson saved there in the middle frame. Their depth did their job too, laying the body, and making the heavy minutes Dallas’ blueline already plays feel even heavier. If you’re Colorado, you’re feeling good going into Game 2. You stole one in a game you probably deserved anyway, but more importantly, it looks like Colorado will have an easier time making adjustments than Dallas.
Miro made a mistake that should never be made in a sudden death situation. You can’t let a player have a breakaway like that. You have to take a penalty in that situation. Even if he gets a penalty shot it’s better than a point black drive the net. Also Ottinger made no move to knock the puck off of the guys stick when he went backhand. He could have easily reached the puck but he didn’t do it.
Thanks for the update… agree completely about Hintz,! Miro getting skated by is not a rare occurrence… yes his stick work gets the puck most of the time, but when it doesn’t it’s “olé’ time”…. how can he be considered an elite Dman???