You would think a Stars team with only three regulation losses in their last 10 would be in better shape, but they’re still just third in the Central despite having 93 points. That’s the “bad” news, if you will.
The good news is that this was anything but a perfunctory win despite the flaccid opposition. In fact, the first period was one of the better periods of hockey we’ve seen all season. However, the reason it felt like a big deal is that there was a lot of great stories. Logan Stankoven, Wyatt Johnston, the return of Tyler Seguin, and the mega-return of Nils Lundkvist. It was a good night for the team, but a great night for certain individuals.
We’ll get to those individuals in the stray observations, but the important thing for the team is that it gives them momentum they can leverage against weak teams. Their next opponents this month are Pittsburgh, Arizona, San Jose, Vancouver, and Seattle; one tough game, and maybe a trap or two, but nothing Dallas shouldn’t be able to turn into first in the Central if they are who think they are.
Outside of that, I can’t think of anything else to add. Jake Oettinger didn’t seem his sharpest, but it was impossible to truly tell given the fact that Arizona left the building after the first period.
Anything else? Only the strays.
Nils Lundkvist: hoorah!
If I seemed ‘low’ on Lundkvist in today’s writing about Lundkvist versus Hakanpaa, it’s because I’m human. I’m pro “you can throw your young players a rope instead of a barbell” when it comes to development. Opportunity is not the same as development, and NHL teams confuse the two as mutually inclusive. So the debate can be exhausting, and we know the endgame anyway: Hakanpaa will play.
Or will he? I’ve said before, but I think the quickest way to short circuit player perception is to contain contradictions. The fact that Lundkvist isn’t fast, or agile as a puck mover automatically puts him at a disadvantage. I stand by my broad assessment: Lundkvist won’t be an impact player. But that’s very different from ‘Lundkvist can’t be a good depth defender.’ And I’ve always said that Lundkvist, for all of his faults — which aren’t many when you get past assumptions about what a PMD should look like — is a genuinely unique player in the offensive zone. Tonight he was that jacked up to 11.
I hadn’t realized how much I underestimated Lundkvist’s offense until looking at his career meat map. The dude full on hijacks the right side of the ice.
As a result, he grades out extremely well in terms of shift-to-shift impact despite having a down year.
Hakanpaa, meanwhile, is giving Dallas his absolute best in terms of shift-to-shift impact, and it doesn’t amount to as much.
A couple of charts do not an argument make. And let’s be clear: Lundkvist will need to play multiple games like this (assuming his injury tonight isn’t long term) were he to have a chance. The debate’s not settled because I think DeBoer is right, but because we know how coaches operate.
One thing I want to add is a general philosophy. I think offense lower in the lineup is more important than defense. Because hockey is so random, being able to mine the bottom of the barrel for lucky breaks has greater potential to pay offensive dividends. Conversely, defense is more important in bigger minutes. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that teams with centers who are poor defensively — think Tage Thompson in Buffalo and Trevor Zegras in Anaheim — tend to struggle defensively as a group while the best teams seem to have elite two-way pivots, like Hintz in Dallas, Eichel in Vegas, or Barkov in Florida. This, to me at least, is the strongest argument for playing Lundkvist over Hakanpaa.
You can’t control chaos, but adding offense in the margins might help you leverage it.
Logan Stankoven and Wyatt Johnston
I’ve got a Tales From the Clipped Friday on these two, so you’ll get your dedicated piece, but for now it’s worth highlighting them. Should Dallas go on a deep run, their two youngest players might be two of their most important players. It’s not just the points, but the way they rearrange the dynamic of Dallas’ attack on ice. Even the commentary booth for the Coyotes couldn’t stop gushing and highlighting their play, talking about them like veteran All-Stars that the Coyotes needed to be on the constant look-out for. That’s a damn rare thing.
Tyler Seguin returns
It was good to see Seguin get on board not because goals are more fun and everyone wants more, but because it was a nice way to put a bow on just how quietly important he’s been this season. That line still has some work to do in the long run, but Seguin looked like his old (goal scoring) new (dogged work) self.
The Arizona perspective
The Coyotes were a fun story early in the year. They genuinely seemed like a team on the end. Their additions (except Dumba) appeared to be paying off, they had Logan Cooley and eventually Dylan Guenther, their goalies were playing well, and the underlying analytics looked decent for a team expected to lay down and tank. Somewhere along the way the 18-wheeler fell right off the cliff. I’m not really sure where they’re headed, but I would argue that they’re well-positioned if they make some more veteran signings like they did this season. Simashev is basically a faster, somehow bigger Bichsel, and Geekie and But are serious forwards with wildly different skillsets. I personally hope they stay in Arizona and give their fans something to cheer for.
"I think offense lower in the lineup is more important than defense" is a brilliant point. I think playoffs will reveal how much of a luxury it is that the Hintz line is as defensively sound as they are, while also generating elite offense. Also would rationalize splitting up Harley-Heiskanen as the top pair, but maybe I'm projecting a bit there since I'd like to see Miro-Tanev as the first pair.
Unfortunately I agree the Hak - Nils debate is settled. PDB will play Hak because physically he looks like he should be a better defender especially come playoff time. I still think Nils has a shot at being a long term piece of this team. Having him as a 3rd pair RHD would make most teams jealous.