Yes and no. Yes, the Stars are struggling to score at 5v5. They currently have as many EV goals as Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and LA: two teams that were just swept. However, here’s some good news. In fact, here’s lots of good news.

To start with, Dallas is winning the possession battle. However, more than just gaining the edge on volume, they have an outright edge in shot quality. Scoring chances are 90 to 72 at 5v5 in Dallas’ favor through four games. The high danger edge is similarly definitive, with chances 35 to 29. There’s a lot of nuance within these numbers, as Minnesota has the edge in expected goal share. Why that is we won’t discuss for fear of getting off topic, but the broad strokes are clear enough: Dallas isn’t getting beaten at even-strength. They’re beating themselves. And they’re shooting three percent at evens right now (!).

Yes, three percent exactly; not 3.82 so you can round off to four or anything like that. No: three percent. They have three goals on 100 shots on net. Is that sustainable? No. Could it be sustainable through a single series? No. Look at it this way. Ottawa shot 3.66 percent at evens. Regression is coming.

In my opinion, even-strength is not the problem. In fact, I’ve been impressed by their even-strength performance against such a solid team when their even-strength problems were arguably greater against far lesser teams early in the regular season. However, even-strength cracks do show up in the unlikeliest of places: the chemistry between Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen. And so that’s what I’d like to explore today.

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Even in the context of the thunderdome, this is no normal matchup. The stakes go beyond two top teams being victims of the NHL’s inexplicable playoff seeding. It isn’t just about hockey. It’s about Robertson either making his mark as a playoff performer or not. It’s about Guerin being able to justify the Team USA snub or not. It’s about Nill showing he was right to stick by his team and make the dramatic shift away from Pete DeBoer; or making a costly mistake. Will Heiskanen be destined to stay in the shadow of the Norris winners, or can he stake his claim with a little more punctuation, here and now?

It’s only round one, but it already feels like it’s for all the marbles. Granted, I don’t believe any of the above are plot points for how to analyze a team. A single seven-game series won’t tell the whole story about where either team is headed. But the Stars have established themselves as the proverbial bridesmaids. It’s insanely impressive what they’ve done over the last three seasons. Not just anyone can make it to three consecutive Conference Finals. But did they get there because they’ve always been on the cusp and continue to be, or because they exhausted all resources to get that far?

That’s a trickier question but it’ll be answered soon enough. It’s hard not to be intrigued by the scope of things; or more specifically, the scope of Dallas’ new direction. Despite getting into the WC Finals last season, they were outscored in each series. 13-14 versus Winnipeg, 21-24 versus Colorado, and 11-22 versus Edmonton. Against the Oilers, special teams was one of the deciding factors not just in 2025 (when Dallas’ penalty kill faltered) but in 2024 (when their power play shot blanks). For all of Dallas’ strengths, this is as close and competitive a matchup as you’ll find in hockey. That doesn’t mean I think the Wild are better; just that Dallas has a lot to prove. And they have to prove it potentially without some of their best players just like last year versus Colorado.

Can they do it? If they could beat Colorado without Heiskanen and Robertson, surely they could beat Minnesota without Heiskanen and Hintz. Right? There are some important differences. And we’ll answer it in time.

This year, the breakdown will be a little different. Rather than analyze Dallas offense versus Minnesota offense, Minnesota offense versus Dallas defense, special teams, etc (which I’ll still be doing of course), I’ll be analyzing each team layer using Louis Boulet’s blueprint and matchup engine. In this case:

• Chance creation and mitigation

• Possession generation and mitigation

• Cycle offense and defense

• Rush offense and defense

• Forecheck offense and defense

• Power play and penalty kill

• Finishing and goaltending

• Penalty drawing and discipline

• Zone entry and denial efficiency

• Breakout and forecheck

So 10 chapters; each starring their own cast, and sometimes with different directors. What’s the Dallas vs. Minnesota story exactly; and most critically, how will it end?

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I should let that last part go for the purpose of a cleaner reader experience, but it’s part of what bothers me about coaches calling out their own players for lack of effort. Once you get to the top, effort is non-optional. Everybody is trying their best and working hard. The difference is thoughtfulness. While I personally consider prizefighting a more accurate analogy to hockey, there’s a reason chess is often used as a comparison too. One of my favorite fighters, Cory Sandhagen, liked to call elite fighters thoughtful. So when I think of great teams, I think of thoughtful teams; teams that strategize and adjust under pressure.

The Contender checklist, lifted from the NBA and developed by Craig Custance at The Athletic, gives us the broadstrokes about how ‘thoughtful’ a great team really is compared to their peers. To recap: a true NHL contender typically checks at least four of following boxes: 100 or more points, top 10 in both special teams, top five in goals-for percentage, top five in expected goals-for percentage, top five in SRS (a measure of goal differential in the context of strength of schedule, per Hockey-Reference), and reached at least the second round of the playoffs the previous year.

Right now, Dallas hits the core four and then some. Assuming the math checks out, they should finish with 108 points, which will be good for the league’s fourth-best mark. At 55 percent in goal share, they rank 3rd. Their power play ranks 2nd, and they are 4th in SRS, meaning they’ve been good against good teams. That leaves only their expected goal share, and penalty kill, which are functionally top 10. Postseason wise, they are the anti-Leafs and continue racking up wins to make deep playoff runs. In other words, whatever you think about Dallas’ effort lately, they tick all the boxes.

But is that all there is? Of course not. The following won’t be random stats that I’ve hand-selected: they’re stats that will factor into the larger discussion about the path ahead; how Dallas plays with a lead versus without, revisiting some of the Jake Oettinger discussion with a different frame of reference, and which forward lines are performing, etc.

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The line comes from Roger Ebert, except he was talking about movies. Just like every movie has a familiar plot with familiar characters, every hockey system has a familiar forecheck with familiar players.

They all claim to be aggressive on the forecheck. They all claim to ‘keep it simple.’ They’re all designed to perfection in the defensive zone. Until they’re not. That’s because how the players interpret said system affects how the system is executed. Many teams fail tactically because the system forces the roster to play to the system’s strengths rather than the players (think every defensive specialist coach). Or they play to the strengths of a roster that simply isn’t good enough. Whatever the case, we have a unique case study on both the what and the how. Because Glen Gulutzan in Dallas has changed both.

Before we begin, major sticktap to Jack Han for his Hockey Tactics 2026 ebook. Today wouldn’t be possible without him. NHL systems have always fascinated me because I don’t actually know them. Sure, I have some concept of them; like that nobody attacks with a flying V. But when I’m watching hockey, like most people, I see the puck, the players, and the blur of the dynamic between them.

What follows won’t be a play-by-play of the comparisons between Gulutzan and Pete DeBoer. I’ll talk about those, but only here and there. For the most part, we’ll be looking at Han’s work accompanied by a clip, followed by a brief discussion. I’m not looking to analyze Gulutzan’s system so much as identify it for myself and casual fans — how he does things differently in the defensive zone, whether he gives players a license to be creative in the offense zone or not, etc — ideally providing context for Dallas’ future success, or struggles.

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So let’s start in good faith.

And let’s start by being upfront about trying to hold two competing ideas in our heads at once: namely that Oettinger is more capable than he’s shown, and Oettinger is having a bad year. Let’s see if we can’t assess the two, and figure out why these competing statements seem to coexist. Let’s also put the Pete DeBoer drama behind us, and entertain whether or not he was wrong for the right reasons. Because I feel like that’s something else that biases our perception.

I wasn’t really sure what I’d focus on today. Oettinger is a unique case all on his own and not just because of the discourse that surrounds him. This year is easily his worst year to date. So I decided to hit the sprawl head on. I wanted to compare Oettinger this year to his career average, to his peers, separating his performances from even-strength to all situations, to shorthanded; and doing so while keeping in mind a very important trend that has occurred in recent years: the massive dip in save percentage for all goalies over the years. Which is true. Over the last five seasons, the average Sv% is .879. The five seasons before that from 2016 to 2021? .906. The five seasons between 2011 and 2016? .911.

Obviously this year is a huge exception.

But is there a rational explanation? Can we expect a bounceback? Is this Oettinger being punished by the PDO gods or something else?

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It’s a tough thing, having conflicted feelings. It doesn’t play well on social media, where you need to be either super hyped, or super doomed.

To be sure, my instinct upon hearing about the trade was definitely the latter. Myers fits the profile of the type of right-shot defender Jim Nill seems to be gravitationally pulled toward: he’s cheap, he’s not great, and he’s a veteran stopgap. Having just turned 36, Myers’ best years are well behind him.

On this part, I don’t think anyone disputes that. What seems to be disputed, at least among Stars fans, is that Myers is actually decent. Nill “did good given the circumstances.” He won’t get in the way, and at least now the Stars can go into the postseason without a weak link; somewhat amusing since Myers is arguably the weakest link on the blue line as constructed.

However, notice I used words like “weakest” and “not great.” Pancakes, not waffles. I did not call Myers terrible, or defective. These are absolutely words I’ve used before. Whether it was the last trade dead line, or two summers ago. Are they words worth using now?

My instinct is to use them. Because I don’t like this deal. To me there’s a very simple calculus for any trade: does it make your team better? Forget about the topics of adding size, or physicality, which are irrelevant. Or needing to do something so it looks like you’re serious about contending. None of that matters if your team is getting worse on the ice, just as no amount of assets, however big or small, are worth giving up if no value is added.

But if I’m trying to be fair, impartial, if I’m trying to check my biases at the door, and trying to meaningfully analyze what Myers adds — does any of that change?

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Before last night’s back alley beatdown, the Dallas Stars spent 79 percent of their time on ice in a tied gamestate. That’s seventh in the NHL. Some of the teams above them are very good, like Minnesota. Some of them are quite bad, like Chicago and New Jersey. Some of the teams that are rarely playing in tied situations are very good, like Colorado and Tampa Bay. Some of them are quite bad, like Calgary and Winnipeg. I would call it neutral information.

But here’s a fun stat. The Dallas Stars lead the league in goals-for percentage in tied situations. With 47 goals for, and 32 against, that’s a 59.49 percent goal share, ahead of Washington, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Carolina.

There is an entire study to be done on what something like this means in the modern era. Early research in 2011 showed that a team’s future wins could be predicted less by a team’s points in the standings than their shot differential in a tied game state. But that kind of work, aside from being beyond my capacity, is for another time.

For today, I just want to know: within that 79 percent, how does Dallas perform? If the Stars intend to play close games now and in the future, what can we expect? Are they winning this gamestate because of deployment, shooting percentage, save percentage…what, exactly?

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As of this writing, blown third-period leads or not (and we’ll dig into that), the Stars are sitting pretty. While they are technically third in the division, they are second in points percentage. Even more critically, the PDO gods cup checked the Colorado Avalanche pretty good these last few weeks. Dallas is now within six points of the top spot. Catching the Avalanche is still a major hurdle, but who thought we’d be in a world where the Stars now have a three percent chance of playing Utah in the first round, and a two percent chance of playing Vegas? (Per Micah Blake McCurdy’s model projections)

Granted, I don’t know that it’s really that much better than Minnesota in round one, but still. Despite all the third period bumps and bruises along the way, they continue to gain more rope for the long game. However, should we really give a damn at this point? I don’t think so. We were in the same spot a few years ago when Dallas’ first two matchups were Vegas and Colorado: an impossible task they said. Granted, the Stars still lost in the end, but Dallas can only control who they are. And who they are continues to evolve.

Today we’ll look at every piece at a glance: offense, defense, goaltending, special teams, coaching, and yes — Jim Nill and upper management.

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This season has been a completely different story. The Stars only have three players with more than 20 goals, although one of them is past the 30-goal mark (Jason Robertson, of course) and another will cross it soon (Wyatt Johnston, who currently has 29). So the numbers are a little deceiving. There’s a good chance that Roope Hintz, currently with 15, will also cross that mark in due time. But even then, that’s likely it. Mavrik Bourque would need 10 goals in the remaining 25 games to reach that mark.

In some ways, this discussion is as relevant as it is irrelevant. Rantanen, Johnston, Robertson, and Hintz will lead the way no matter what. If they don’t, Dallas is toast. That’s just the nature of the postseason. Depth doesn’t need to be productive. It just needs to be consistent; to put in a quality shift, and give the high rollers the shifts they need. There’s more to it than that, but I think we understate exactly what a good shift means. Like somehow non-goal shifts don’t matter enough, or make a big enough impact, as if goals happen in a vacuum. Maybe they do. But territory doesn’t happen in a vacuum.

This is where having a line that can give the big dogs an offensive zone shift they otherwise wouldn’t get matters. When the top guys can simply play tag over the boards while the blue collar dudes make life easier doing work hemming opponents in their own zone — that matters. And so I’m glad that my defense of Sam Steel has aged well (if I do say so myself), because I think the Stars might have cracked the code here. Duchene with Steel and Jamie Benn haven’t just been a nice find. They’ve been dominant. Will it last? And could they be the line that ties things together?

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For the most part, I feel like we’re still in the dark about line chemistries. And for the most part, I feel like coaches still leave something on the table. Is Ryan Hartman really the best option for Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, or does he simply check off a lot of boxes that coaches love, like being gritty? Is Max Domi really the best Toronto can do for Auston Matthews, or is he a lot like Hartman? A guy who isn’t all that textured for a forward, but fits into a convenient archetype? Ondrej Palat in New Jersey, Christian Dvorak in Philly, Brayden Schenn in St. Louis, Boone Jenner in Columbus — we could keep going but you get the idea.

Every now and then a team finds the perfect player who checks a lot of bottom six boxes, but has top six skill, like Zach Hymen or Ivan Barbashev. And so you probably get where I’m going with this. Yes, this is about Sam Steel. In fact, it’s mostly about Sam Steel. But it’s also about the other guys. It’s a lot easier to blame Steel. But is there room for criticism elsewhere? The other guys are the ones with their own gravity. Why can’t they bend others to their will?

Perhaps that’s unfair to Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen. Or perhaps it’s unfair to all three. Whatever the case, I’m not here to defend Steel’s chemistry or lackthereof on the top line. But I would like to modestly argue that he is — for now — the lesser of other evils.

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Again, I know I’ve written this exact same preamble before. Hey, writing is hard. But I‘ve always known that figuring this out would become clearer in time as Corey Sznajder’s game recaps and tracking data became more and more available. Why is Corey’s data so key? Simple: there is no public hockey data that is more complete, thorough, and downright essential in figuring out team identity. Shot metrics are still important, don’t get me wrong. But figuring out the how is Corey’s game, and nobody does it better.

If you’re unfamiliar with All Three Zones, I recommend reading the glossary. Follow Corey at his Substack. Or on social media. Or check out my explainer. If you want the cliffs notes, Corey’s data is important because it tells us how a team performs not just in terms of shots, but in terms of passing, zone entries, zone exits, forechecking, puck retrievals, and so much more.

At last, let’s answer the questions that have been plaguing us all year.

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Something something, why the analytics are important, not believing everything plus/minus and wins/losses tell you, etc.

Dallas has the record of an elite team. I would argue that they are an elite team. But all of that comes with a qualifier: they are elite…for now. Now, that might sound ominous, and it kind of is. I didn’t mean to get all Unsolved Mysteries on you. But the Dallas Stars simply aren’t playing with a full deck. There are plenty of explanations. And tomorrow I’ll be writing about one of them for D Magazine (spoiler: Thomas Harley). But today I want to focus very briefly on the forward lines.

They need help. I’m not trying to be snide or funny. Just look.

Super quick, so you know what you’re looking at.

• Top left quadrant, at the top: That’s the Jason Robertson line with Roope Hintz and Mavrik Bourque. They’re by far Dallas’ most dangerous line. They’re allowing a little the other way, but not so much that they’re a complete liability.

• Top left quadrant, in the middle to the far left: That’s Mikko Rantanen with Sam Steel and Wyatt Johnston. Seems like Steel’s two-way ability isn’t enough to keep the trio from bleeding chances.

• Bottom right quadrant, slightly higher: The defunct Justin Hryckowian line with Bourque and Back.

• Bottom left quadrant, slightly lower: The defunct Robertson line with Tyler Seguin.

There are some rational explanations for the lack of synergy elsewhere. Injuries to Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Matt Duchene have derailed the veteran core almost completely. Granted, we can expect a bounceback from some of them. But to what degree?

To me, this is the dilemma ahead of the deadline. While the focus tends to be on the blue line — given Harley’s struggles, it certainly should — I think the illusion of clean numbers is critical here. Is Dallas really the second-best team in the league? I don’t think their record is a sufficient answer. Likewise, the Stars being the second-best scoring team is not a sufficient summation of their offense. Nor does the fact that they are getting goals enough to gloss over the lack of forward chemistry. The power play goals will come, and in fact, PP goals explain Dallas’ ranking. The Stars are 7th in scoring if only count even-strength donuts, but that also owes a lot to the league’s second-best shooting percentage. I know. “It’s sustainable if you can do it.”

But for how long? Dallas’ forward numbers feel like a big deal IMO. Dallas has a lot of good shooters. But right now 12 of their 15 forwards are shooting over 11 percent. The average shooting percentage is nine to ten percent1. This team needs a line to lead the way in all three zones. Not just one zone.

Of course, you would never know this discovery because your average hockey broadcast has to make time for replays of random hits that didn’t make a difference, a meaningless fight, or a faceoff that wasn’t actually that important — or least not as important as say, the goal, the shooter, the possession that led to that faceoff in the zone to begin with, etc. But it’s true. And unlike most of the analytics work done during the boom before they all got picked up in the summer of 2014, that particular research still survives.

However, things change. What felt like research back then is simply a common measure. The biggest change was the introduction of shot quality models (referred to as expected goals, or xG). Since then, the fancy stats have gotten fancier and fancier. A big part of that — looking at the work of Louis Boulet, Jack Fraser, and Micah McCurdy in particular — is owed to Corey Sznajder, whose tracking project has given a lot of model creators more access to data that never otherwise existed, and still doesn’t: passing data, for example, entry and exit success, rush versus cycle information, and a whole lot more to fill in the blanks of performance instead of merely impact.

But today we’re not getting into the weeds of anything. We’re getting back to basics. Why? Because Dallas has a shot share problem. Of course, I’ve stopped talking about it in my game recaps because nobody wants to hear the same criticism over and over. But also because I don’t want to jump the gun and sound the alarm. So let’s talk about that alarm here.

The Stars are 30th in shot share (or percentage of shot attempts at even-strength). Shot attempts are 1550 to 1295 in their opponent’s favor. That’s an incredibly wide margin. It’s an alarming margin. But does it tell the whole story? Does it tell a story at all? Perhaps it’s more important than we assume? Perhaps it won’t matter? (This will seem doomy at first, but I promise there’s light at the end of the tunnel. Mostly.)

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As diligent readers know, I haven’t been as eager to embrace these Stars. It’s obviously nothing personal. But there’s a horror story every season: the team that is playing with confidence. They’re winning the hard way. Everyone is on the same page. They’ve embraced their new coach. They got their groove back — pick a slogan. Detroit (and this year) and St. Louis last year. Seattle this year (or will be). Point being that there’s always a team whose headlines are at stark odds with the underlying numbers. No the underlying numbers are not always right, but if not a reversal, you can clock the change with an egg timer.

Dallas wasn’t that, but they were close to that for me. 36 percent of their goals in the month of October were from the PP. That’s obviously a good thing, to see your power play score. The residuals of their man advantage prowess still lingers, as Mikko Rantanen and Wyatt Johnston lead the league in PP points. In fact, all four of Dallas’ forwards on the top unit are in the top 15 in said category. Nonetheless, it’s the kind of stuff that worries me when all else is not equal. And things were definitely not equal, between the PK, and even-strength offense.

However, we’ve seen a lot of this change. And it’s changed even as the roster has gotten more injured. So how are they doing it? What’s changing so far to make them the second best team in the league — and by a yardstick?

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The Dallas Stars experience has been a whirlwind. We have some answers and we have some questions. We have some ideas, and we have some feelings. The end result is a victory green picture with blanks to fill.

It’s an odd thing to say about a team that is comfortably second in their division. But it’s not really a criticism either. There are a lot of stories to cover so far. Glen Gulutzan, and the coaching staff’s systems. What becomes of the top six when they’re healthy. The somewhat janky but kind of encouraging starts of Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith, whose struggles are really only the PK. The AHL defense, etc.

It’s a lot, but Dallas is going through a lot. So today I want to focus on three somewhat hard predictions, judging by the data. Although these predictions won’t involve watching the spreadsheets. Sure, they’ll be a few, as there always is. But making predictions is not science, so I won’t treat it as such. Nonetheless, I’ll stand by these, even if I’m not really going out on a limb.

Ultimately, this could be a recurring feature that we can always return to. Was a right? Wrong? Righter or wronger, and to what degree?

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I don’t know this sport, however. Maybe that’s when I get grumpy. For example, the Dallas Stars are 9-4-3 through their first 16 games. And they’re 6-1-3 in their last 10. The end result is that they’re second in the Central division, and third in the Western Conference. However, does that make them good? Or more specifically: is it a good sign? Is Dallas headed for a quality future?

I don’t know. Perhaps that’s why I’m grumpy. I don’t know. I want easy answers. I want to be able to point to one specific thing and call it a day. My brain doesn’t like contradictions. And yet watching Dallas beat Nasvhille and Seattle this weekend had me scratching my head. “Really? Nashville is tanking. Seattle, despite what the standings say, is not good. And Dallas finished both games like they went to war with the 2002 Red Wings.”

That’s what inspired to write today’s piece. Dallas is only missing ancillary pieces of their roster right now. We should have a clearer picture of what this team is and what they’re trying to do. I don’t feel like we know that. When Dallas generates offense, are they doing so off the rush, or off the cycle? Are they running a hybrid coverage in the defensive zone, or is it a swarm? Are they playing the neutral zone aggressively or are they trapping? Maybe that’s a separate discussion. But so far, I don’t know the Stars. Their record is nice. But they’re a -2 in team goal differential. The only other team with a negative goal diff. in a WC playoff spot is Seattle (hardly good company). In terms of overall possession, they are a bottom 10 team across every category; and still below the San Jose Sharks in shot attempt plus/minus at -191.

Because of that, I won’t try to answer that today. Yes, there are red flags. But there are some good signs too. So instead of answering the Big Questions, I’ll focus on six things: three things you shouldn’t be worried about, and three things you should.

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So far Harley has been exactly as advertised and then some. 111 points through 206 games. He didn’t even have a breakout year like most players. He just got shoved into the playoffs and went berserk thanks to some sharp development work in Cedar Park. However, this was no flash in the pan. Not only was this a sign of things to come, but he blew the roof off our collective expectations — so much so that the numbers had to respect what was, at least statistically, a Norris-caliber defender last season.

It’s a lot within a very small window. Two full seasons. Three very deep playoff runs. As a result, Jim Nill made the move, signing Harley to an eight-year contract worth $84.69 million with an AAV of $10.5. He mentioned Harley’s play in Miro Heiskanen’s absence in the press release: “Thomas has proven to be one of the top defensemen in our league, and his ability to step up in Miro Heiskanen’s absence was an important part of our team maintaining its pace throughout last season.”

As any long time reader here knows, I’ve been a fan of Harley since jump street: scouting his early run, analyzing his development, and looking at whether or not the momentary Norris love was deserved.

But those pieces addressed very different questions. One was about Harley’s potential as an everyday NHLers. One was about his impact in the top four, and the other was about his impact compared to his peers. Now we answer the question: is he worth Evan Bouchard, or an Adam Fox, or a Zach Werenski? Who are his comps? As in, where does Harley fit into the historical record of defensemen putting up similar numbers?

As always, I owe everything to the people who do the real work: Evolving-Hockey, Corey Sznajder, Micah Blake McCurdy, and Louis Boulet. And as always, thank you paid subscribers who inspire me each and every day to do that little extra. You may not own multiple properties, a restaurant, or a bunch of casinos, but for you, an uncommon bond is worth the sacrifice of a common commodity. I don’t intend to take that for granted.

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So why are we watching the spreadsheets today? Because a small sample size is not the same as being left in the dark. Take Dallas’ points in the standings, for example. This can easily change on a dime. With 11 points, they are currently in the first wild card spot. That means one win and one Winnipeg loss and voila! They’re third in the Central. Conversely, one loss and one win by Chicago, Vancouver, Edmonton, and Nashville — and voila…they’re 12th in the entire Conference.

So points in the standings are irrelevant. However, what about things that are harder to build up? What about things that are harder to tear down? Goal differential is a good place to start. What if points in the standings were determined by goal differential? What if that were considered the more accurate representation of a team’s value? If so, Dallas’ -2 would keep them where they’re at now, which is odd, because there are only five Western Conference teams with a positive goal differential. Nonetheless, earning a positive goal differential will be trickier than simply moving up or down in the standings.

Are there numbers that go beyond goal differential? Are there numbers even harder to build up — and conversely, harder to tear down? Yes, in point of fact. So that’s what we’re interested in today. One of the reasons why I decided to fall down this statistical rabbit hole despite there being limited data is that a) the data is really interesting for reasons you might not suspect and b) in some instances, we are looking at patterns that were true of the team under Pete DeBoer, which is its own level of instructiveness.

Today we’ll be using expected goals above replacement to consider where Dallas’ offense, defense, power play, and penalty kill, really is. Why xGAR? Because this will give us a closer look at what Dallas is earning (possession, and consistency, for example) rather than what they’re being rewarded or not rewarded for (goals). Even if you have little notion of analytics, surely you have some notion of what a team deserves versus what a team receives; process versus results, climate versus weather, etc.

Dallas’ games versus L.A. and Colorado were good examples of both sides of this hockey coin. For a quick guide into how Goals Above Replacement are calculated, click here.

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There are some bad, early signs. At even-strength, Dallas is getting outshot 113-110. Their expected goal differential is 0. In terms of shot attempts, the Stars are getting outpossessed to the tune of 236-195. However, there are some good things too. On special teams, they’re rock solid. Third on the PP in conversion, and 2nd in expected goals-for per 60. While the PK has given up a lot, they’re 4th in expected goals against per 60, suggesting it will take care of itself in time. So now what?

Trying to find early answers is not necessarily about specific numbers. Per Moneypuck, Dallas has only deserved two of their wins (Vancouver and Winnipeg); and if you’re curious how those Dserve to Win O’Meters are calculated, click here. That feels more correct than their actual record. The Stars have had way too much trouble breaking out of the zone. Their playmaking, or lackthereof, looks it can’t decide between focusing on the the rush or on the cycle. The forecheck looks a step behind. My instinct is to call things a hot mess.

But are they? There won’t be a lot of rhyme or reason to this piece. I’m gonna stick the microscope under last year’s roster (what were they good or bad at least year re: shots, shot types, passes, pass types, transition, etc?), and then talk about a few key stats, both good and bad. Once we get to a big enough sample, we’ll start getting into the weeds (as we did last season) of whether or not this team really is the ‘physical’ squad they claim to be; or rather, if the changes they were supposed to make are being executed. If it’s a real phenomenon, then it’ll show up in the offense Dallas generates from the forecheck, or off the cycle — data we have thanks to the insanely diligent work of Corey Sznajder. If not, then we’ll have more questions.

As always, grains of salt and all that. We’ll be looking at more numbers from last season than this season. All of this is preliminary of course. Nonetheless, Dallas is a curious team, which makes me curious to learn more.

New subscriber? Hola! I’m always stoked when an influx of fans/readers come in because it just means another chance to not only grow the community, but hopefully even grow new fans of hockey. While today is a paywalled article, you can always join me and the 400+ other Stars fans (along with several writers and familiar faces in the Stars mediaverse) in my Discord, which is open to everyone.

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Netminding also happens to an area of both strength and weakness for the Stars. Do we really know who Jake Oettinger is? How good is Casey DeSmith if he has to play more games? Do their respective performances explain some of the strange results over the recent years, between the lack of postseason saves and odd splits between DeSmith and Oettinger, with the backup posting a higher save percentage this past season?

It turns out, yes! There is; much to my surprise. I’ll be once again returning to Louis Boulet’s work. I hadn’t realized how much data he had on goaltenders. Technique (how well a goalie plays the post), movement (rebound ability), even-strength versus the PK, rush and cycle save percentage, etc. Boulet has every conceivable category covered, which makes a lot of this a revelation to me — and hopefully to readers too.

Quick note: from here on out, if you want gameday threads, you can join me in the Discord (where you’re always invited) overreacting to puck stuff. I’d prefer to keep the Stars Stack chat uncluttered, and specific to breaking news, but please don’t hesitate to start your own conversation there. The Discord is open to all, and the chat here is open to all.

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