It Game 1 felt like the bad omen, then Game 2 felt like the blessing. The Stars looked not just animated, but revamped. Like everyone had their spinach after leaving it on the travel plane or something. It was the kind of performance that made Stars fans feel like everything will be okay. Everything was clicking. Even within the chaos.

The good times never roll in the playoffs. Especially this early. But it’s hard to understate what a performance Dallas managed as a team. Jake Oettinger had one of his best games in years. The blue line bent but didn’t break, and the forward lines looked cohesive enough to attack with consistency, intensity, and dare I say — structure!

It was also just an amusing game with lots and lots of punchlines (it’s not every day you see back to back too-many-men penalties in the dying minutes1). Of course, there were also some shenanigans, but we’ll get to those in the strays. For now the series is tied thanks to some goaltending heroics, Jason Robertson picking up where he left off versus Edmonton last year, and all of it owing zero thanks to the officiating. The series now moves to Minnesota where it will either be Dallas’ turn to take away home-ice advantage, Dallas’ turn to take over completely, or Dallas’ turn to fall terribly behind.

The grudge match begins

The first period was everything we expected from this series distilled into 20 minutes and then some. Wyatt Johnston opened the scoring off a very fortunate (okay let’s call it what it is: lucky) shot from the blue line, which was followed by a very slick goal by Brock Faber at four-on-four. In the meantime, the meat was clacking and the pace was clicking. It wasn’t Dallas’ greatest work — Jake Oettinger didn’t perform miracles by accident — but the energy was there, unlike in Game 1, and their starting goaltender nearly looked like prime Belfour.

Power plays

The Stars took the lead in the second period thanks to their power play. While the first game was a whipping that felt difficult to discuss anything positive about, it’s worth noting that the Stars’ power play didn’t go anywhere even in Game 1. Re-watching Saturday’s contest, the Stars have been getting plenty of chances and looks, suggesting that — as usual — the power play will have juice through thick and thin. It was also good to see Matt Duchene of all people net one. The narrative around him as a playoff performer is a valid criticism, and one only Duchene can answer himself. Monday night was a good start if he intends to fill the skates of Roope Hintz.

A digression: the league still sucks

You knew this was coming. And not just because you subscribe to this place. We all knew it. Not even Stars fans. But Toronto fans. Boston fans. Hockey fans around the world knew that somebody would cross the line in George Parros’ NHL sooner rather than later, and sure enough, Marcus Foligno made good on Parros promise to ‘make hockey violent again.’

You know my stance on this. It’s too late at night for me to muster the energy to write a proper rant, but the fact that it was assessed a major, and reduced down to a double-minor tells you everything you need to know about how serious the NHL is about player safety. What’s worse is that it wasn’t the only one. Nick Foligno elbowing Nils Lundkvist in the head; Kirill Kaprizov forearming Miro Heiskanen in the head. The coverage always lauds this stuff as “playoff hockey” and “prison rules” but all these descriptions do is normalize the kind of illegal plays that will end with someone getting seriously hurt because that’s exactly what has happened in the past. Bertuzzi on Moore, McSorley on Brashear, Cooke on Savard — how many more is it gonna take?

Robertson’s revenge tour

The Team USA snub is firmly in the rearview mirror for Jason Robertson, but it’s hard to imagine those feelings as absent in private. Robertson’s performance through two feels a little more pronounced. Yes, it has everything to do with winning a Stanley Cup and that in and of itself is plenty to be motivated for. And yes, it’s probably motivating to reverse the playoff narrative around you. But I can’t help but feel like there’s a little extra juice in just how many people Robertson is out to prove are wrong. Although this being a contract year certainly doesn’t hurt either.

Meandering Strays

• Let me just say that even though Glen Gulutzan has said that Michael Bunting is healthy scratch, it’s entirely possible that Gulutzan is making the decision because of Bunting’s lack of 100 percent-ness. Without know for sure, I won’t get on my soapbox here (at least for long), but despite Bunting being completely lackluster in the regular season, he still deserves a shot. Dallas has been a team desperate for even-strength offense really all year. They were 16th in even-strength goals and 32nd in EV shot attempts. If he is healthy, Bunting may not be the most deserving player, but he is the rare Dallas depth forward that can generate offense. Unless Dallas wins the next three games in a row without him, the Stars need to find out if he can figure into the lineup.

• Arttu Hyry drawing back in was well-earned, and arguably earned a long time ago. However, this was no depth performance from a depth player. It’s a testament to what Hyry can do that Glen Gulutzan trusted him at four-on-four opposite Quinn Hughes.

• A two point night from Nils Lundkvist was not on my bingo card. Lundkvist is a player that Dallas really needs to be a factor if the blue line has designs of holding the line, and Lundkvist really passed tonight’s test even when elbows were flying at his head.

• Good lord that open hit by Colin Blackwell.

• Talk about a turnaround. On Saturday, Dallas was destroyed on the penalty kill. Tonight, the roles were completely reversed.

• With the Wild missing Mats Zuccarello, you could tell it was felt, particularly on the power play. Good thing for Dallas that Hynes seems to think Tarasenko still has his legs left (he doesn’t), because not only did Tarasenko draw onto the top line, but he drew onto the top PP unit. Seems like it’s Minnesota’s turn to figure out how to adapt to being down a key forward.

All that went out the window when the puck dropped. The only thing left for these Stars is the game, and what happens here today.

And today was largely misery. This place is here for analysis, and occasionally, some barely-disguised ranting. It’s why I picked Minnesota to win the series despite my heart feeling otherwise; because sometimes it’s less about who these teams are and more about where they’re at. And right now, the Wild are where the hot hand is.

However, I also mention the spirit of analysis because I’m not interested in making any long term judgments about a short term series, and certainly not after one game. The grand narratives are in the systems and the matchups; not one night in DFW. And yet I couldn’t help but feel the sting of Saturday night’s loss reflecting something deeper. Dallas didn’t just lose. They got dumpstered. And they got beat playing their own formula.

Losing Game 1 to the Wild will not go down easy for fans. Not with all the subterfuge attached to both teams. But at this point, the healthier perspective is not being mad that Bill Guerin is celebrating after one win in a seven-game series, but asking questions. Why did Dallas come out so flat? Why was their energy only bottled up in a nine-minute stretch? If Dallas can’t stop Minnesota’s power play, how does Dallas hope to stand a chance? How do they hope to stand a chance if they can’t generate scoring chances at even-strength, which has long been a problem? How can their forward lines hope to forge better chemistry, which has long been a problem? Usually you only end up asking one or maybe two questions like this after a loss. Sometimes you ask none because the team simply got goalie’d. But all of them?

That’s just the gut reaction in my talking, though. My reptile brain is feeling the dark clouds around me, and not just because there are actual dark clouds around me (the weather has sucked here in DFW). But haven’t we been here before too? If there’s any solace after a game like that, it’s that Minnesota played their perfect game. In a tightly-contested series between two great teams, you usually only get one of those. Two if you’re lucky. So now we wait to see how the Wild respond to Dallas’ best effort. If they can play a perfect game on Monday, great. But I suspect the word(s) of the day is just showing up to start the game, which Dallas failed to do.

Special teams vs special teams

I feel like any ebb in this series, no matter how short, will put fans on tilt given the bad blood between the two teams. To that end I didn’t find the first period to be all that bad, or reason to be hypercritical. Even Myers’ penalty was questionable (which evens out since I’m pretty sure Esa Lindell went the Denzel route on that first Minnesota penalty). I don’t know where some of ya’ll have been but that first period was the Dallas Stars all year: defend, defend, defend, special teams, counter, defend, defend, defend, special teams, counter. That both is and is not a criticism. They play an attrition style. If you were draw up the ideal playoff period representing everything this team is under Glen Gulutzan, the first period is exactly what it would look like. It remains to be seen just how far the Stars can leverage that style, but for now, it’s their identity.

Game over (halfway through)

Perhaps the most bizarre thing to occur — and the thing nobody could have predicted — was how lifeless Dallas looked. These Stars were supposed to be many things, but a complete pushover they were not. But pushed over is exactly what happened in the second period. It made the first period feel like the calm before the proverbial storm. Dallas was not only shutdown, but they were forced to absorb, and in absorbing, they were perforated. Kirill Kaprizov, channeling the spirit of his dominance in the first round series versus Vegas from last year, brutalized the Stars…

And then…like the Undertaker meme if Undertaker only popped up due to post mortem twitching…Dallas became fully animated. Jason Robertson scored on the power play, and lines were creating offense out of nowhere.

None of it felt natural, unfortunately. Trailing teams tend to create more because leading teams tend to allow more. Dallas took advantage of that, sometimes due to unforced errors on Minnesota’s part, but in the moment, it felt like just random acts of puck violence.

In net

There was one asterisk for me going into the series with Oettinger which I wrote about in the preview — which is that while Oettinger has been the goalie he’s been billed as, he has tended to be strong in Round 1. The defense broke down around him, but the numbers are ugly. Oettinger was -2.66 goals above expected; which is to say, he allowed almost three goals more than he statistically should have. Meanwhile, Jesper Wallstedt saved 1.73 goals above expected. One game is no reason to call it quits in net, but Minnesota made the modestly controversial decision to start Wallstedt over Filip Gustavsson, who played more games in the regular season (Wallstedt had the higher save percentage). One more game like that, and I don’t think it’s panic to consider playing Casey DeSmith. Right now Dallas has a superior option in net, even if DeSmith is untested. It would seem prudent to consider said option and leave the optics for the funny pages.

Meandering Strays

• The Tyler Myers penalty was called a “size penalty'“ on the broadcast. I can sort of accept that, except there was no replay. It looks like there’s a very modest extension, but nothing super egregious. I’m all for officiating being proactive in protecting headshots. Regardless, Myers has had a penalty problem his entire career. While his numbers have been far better than some of his single plays would lead one to believe, it would be nice if Dallas didn’t have to worry about these penalties either.

• Wyatt Johnston started against the Matt Boldy line, and then gradually started playing against the Kaprizov line. Johnston’s line was torched, outshot 1-3, and outscored 0-2.

• Figuring out the forward lines seems to be another task on the agenda. What’s weird is that there’s never been full clarity. There are some logical reasons for that (injuries) but also something that needs something more than just a line blender.

• Outside of the top pair, the blue line is going to need to find more cohesion between each other, and the forward lines, because there wasn’t much going on except lots and lots of breakouts being killed on their own sticks.

• Nobody wants to read this portion, but the Wild played great. The chemistry between Boldy and Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov and Zuccarello is always evident, and palpable, and it’s something that can carry Minnesota through a shift even when they’re not taking shots or scoring goals. This is the chemistry Dallas needs to emulate.

So it’s worth taking stock before anything else. That doesn’t happen by accident. Drafting, development, trading, cap management, coaching, player performance — none of this means everything is perfect. But it does mean a lot more good than bad has been accomplished not just on the ice, but off of it. The prospect pipeline is currently weak precisely because it was once so strong, as those players graduated or were leveraged into other assets (Logan Stankoven into Mikko Rantanen). The shift from Pete DeBoer to Glen Gulutzan after the postseries drama ended up with a 112-point season. Despite the outcomes in recent years, Dallas still rates as a team not just firmly in its contention window1 but with years to spare until it statistically closes.

However, I doubt most people care right now. For most fans, there’s just the ice, the game, and the anxiety of whatever happens on it over the next — ideally — several months.

And that’s fine. Nothing wakes the senses like playoff hockey. Nonetheless, the process in Dallas is solid and should be emphasized regardless of outcome ahead of this Minnesota series. I’ve already given the series my utmost attention. Everything from which players to watch (like two-way threat Matt Boldy) in what respect (how he executes on the cycle versus how Dallas defends on the cycle), how, when, and why I’ve covered and left my no puck unturned.

So that’s why today is about the all the stuff in between.

Glen Gulutzan

I thought about putting Oettinger at the top, but then I thought about it some more. While the first season can be called a smashing success, I don’t think anyone will care about Gulutzan’s process if the outcome is a potential first-round exit. Then it’s all about the optics. How could Jim Nill go from a proven tactician like Pete DeBoer to an unknown like Gulutzan? This is not serious analysis. Like plus-minus. Jon Cooper and Jared Bednar haven’t won many playoff rounds over the last several years, but who thinks that warrants judgment? Perhaps that’s a bit rich; comparing anyone to two Cup winners. Nonetheless, playoff success is only one component of measuring success.

The other measurement is philosophy. This is where Gulutzan will be held accountable. After all, he’s done something wholly unique. He hasn’t simply tinkered with Dallas’ old system; he’s reversed it completely. Where last season, Dallas was a rush attack team that sacrificed defense in order to score more, this year’s Stars are a slower, cycle-oriented attack that gives up space in the neutral to collapse down low for a protect-this-house approach. Indeed, Dallas is much better defensively this year. It has, however, sacrificed even-strength offense in order to do so. How will that philosophy play out in the postseason? Will Gulutzan be able to adjust if it’s not working? Or has he already found the perfect system for this roster to apply to a playoff atmosphere? This is a unique situation where two coaches have brought in drastically different approaches to how they want Dallas to play puck and with essentially the same roster. While Gulutzan’s value as a coach remains to be seen regardless of what happens (one season is simply not enough, especially with this playoff seeding and the injuries), we won’t need to wait and see how much his approach does or does not pay dividends.

Further reading:

Goaltending

Again, I could see someone placing Oettinger in the top spot. For years now, the Oettinger discourse seems split between two camps: 1) He’s our guy and 2) He’s overrated. I’m not a “truth lies somewhere in the middle” kind of guy because I’ve never known the truth to take sides at all. But I do think the truth here splits those two camps down the middle.

I won’t belabor anything I’ve already said. Oettinger exists in a world of contradictions. Elite on the penalty kill. Less elite at even-strength. Consistent in the regular season. Inconsistent at stealing games. A quality starter but not a showstopper. In the playoffs, all of this remains true but is nudged to more positive ends, however modest. Is that enough to make him a true number one? I honestly don’t know. All I can say is that analyzing players never ends. And I don’t know that our analysis of Oettinger is over per se.

If it is, then Dallas might be wise to let Casey DeSmith know that there could be room for him in net. It sounds like it might be good enough for Jared Bednar. I get the trepidation to play DeSmith some games. After all, what kind of message does that send to Oettinger? The team? I find these questions somewhat silly. That’s the coach’s job. That’s management’s job. Being able to communicate the reason for a controversial decision goes down easier if clarity and respect are a priority. Wasn’t that DeBoer’s fatal flaw? While Oettinger shouldn’t be the source of another explosive situation, there could be smoke if his regular season struggles continue. Can Oettinger elevate his game or will DeSmith become the cavalry? This section might skew negative, but it’s worth keeping in mind that regardless of the Oettinger discourse, Dallas is good in net. So it’s not all bad. The Stars have options, which not everyone can boast.

Further reading:

Jason Robertson

This isn’t about who the best forward is, the most important, or the most productive. This is simply about whether or not Robertson can call himself a playoff performer. But what defines a playoff performer? I suspect, like most people, when you think about playoff performers you think about the guys that produce when it gets down to the marrow; the players who can be point per game players in the postseason as well as the regular season.

But a few things. One, there are very very few players who can produce at a point-per-game clip in a deep run. Out of 143 players with at least 500 minutes of postseason icetime since 2022, only 10 players stand out as the cream of the crop: Connor McDavid (128), Leon Draisaitl (114), Evan Bouchard (81), Matthew Tkachuk (79), Mikko Rantanen (71), Nathan MacKinnon (56), Cale Makar (54), Brad Marchand (51), Mika Zibanejad (44), Nikita Kucherov (44), and Jack Eichel (43). So if the logic is that Robertson has failed as a playoff performer, then a lot of people fail.

However, it should be noted that Robertson is top 20 in playoff scoring with 44 points in 56 games. So what’s the verdict? Is Robertson not a playoff performer because he’s not a point per game player? Most players are not point per game players in the postseason. Is he not a playoff performer because he’s not the point leader on his own team? There’s a stronger case in this regard I suppose. To be sure, Robertson’s game definitely lends itself to a more jagged playoff transition; not just due to his lack of footspeed, but also his age. It’s worth recalling that Tkachuk wasn’t a big time playoff performer either; not until he got to Florida. The concept of playoff performance, of being clutch, is a standard we can assume exists. But most analysis takes it for granted, in addition to the fact that there is little if any proper research on the subject. For now, Robertson has a little runway, but rest assured — if he’s going to clear up any skepticism about his play in the postseason, this season, a season that has given him all the momentum he should need, will be it.

Personally, I’m optimistic. Elite players don’t stay down for long, and I think Robertson has some decent excuses thus far — youth, style, and injury.

Further reading:

The thin blue line

This is probably more of a Jim Nill section than a player section. Nonetheless, with Miro Heiskanen healthy, this blue line is like it always is: top heavy. This year the added benefit is that Heiskanen and Thomas Harley play away from each other, giving the forwards more opportunities to rush the puck up ice from the defensive zone out. However, with Heiskanen’s health in doubt, this puts the onus on everyone else to do what little they do, only better. It’s not like the blue line has been a disaster or anything. In fact, all the regular pairs — Lindell with Heiskanen, Harley with Lundkvist, and Bichsel with Lyubushkin and Myers - are all more than 50 percent in expected goal share. Those numbers are very good. But it’s doubtful we’ll see these pairs for the entire first round. Normally I wouldn’t put this one so high, but the fact that it’s a recurring segment could frame the offseason decision-making if the Stars don’t win it all or worse, are eliminated early.

The development curve

Mavrik Bourque. Lian Bichsel. Justin Hryckowian. We can even throw in names like Harley and Johnston too, since they have not hit their respective primes.

While some people tend to gush over the value of experience, there is equal value in enthusiasm; that youthy feeling of invulnerability. I don’t miss being an idiot because I still carry that burden, but I do miss when bending my knees to lift something heavy wasn’t a life-or-death choice. Some of these guys aren’t the best players, but they’ll be armed with the best attitudes, all gas and no brakes. Bourque might have the most confidence of any player on the roster, period. A hat trick two games before the playoffs, 10 points in his final 12 games — and it’ll only get better with a healthy Roope Hintz (assuming he makes it).

The fact that all of these players have potential to unlock another gear increases Dallas’ fortunes, which is not something all contenders can claim. This may not be a big deal in the grand scope of things. Robertson, Rantanen, Heiskanen, Harley, Oettinger — that’s your leadership. But so much youth with so much more to give achieves a Blake Colemen In The Aggregate Effect IMO. Conversely, Minnesota can only look at Danila Yurov and Bobby Brink as potential x-factors, and at least one of them has been a healthy scratch lately. Jim Nill isn’t perfect, and we’ll get to those imperfections in a second, but he deserves credit here along with his amateur scouts.

Further reading:

From kerfuffle to scuffle

Let me just say from the outset that I’m not interested in making accusations. There is no “but” to follow either. And that’s part of the problem. I get on my soapbox every year lamenting hockey culture’s approach to dirty plays and headshots, and it goes nowhere because all I can do to battle the machine is fling adverbs and adjectives at Hockey Men who don’t read this Substack to begin with, but stick with me — imagine a world where Radko Gudas gets banned for the rest of the season; where negligence is punished harshly; where intent is treated with the same iron fist as outcome. Does Nathan MacKinnon feel as frisky, torquing Hintz down to the ice like that? And so as not to play favorites…does Mikko Rantanen play smarter when his opponent’s numbers are in front of him?

A lot of series will get nasty. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will be nasty. Tampa Bay versus Montreal: they’ll be scraping up eyeballs postgame. Buffalo and Boston will be a fury road of indignities. And yet none of them project to be as explosive as this one. So yes, I worry that this series might cross the line. But it shouldn’t have to. Why is this even a thing? Why must we be actively worried? I doubt I’m speaking for myself. Hell I might even be speaking for the fans who DO love the bloodthirst; and who realize that as entertaining as it is, maybe we’ve crossed the rubicon somewhere in letting George Parros run player safety. And I get it. There’s no player safety utopia here to save us. That utopia is impossible. But the struggle towards that utopia should not be. So fingers cross that the refs clamp down on anyone looking to go Full Bennett.

Jim Nill’s trade deadline

I promise I am not using the Discord to promote something. Discord access is free for everyone. But I witnessed a really great discussion about the forward lines. Michael Bunting next to Johnston and Rantanen or Hryckowian? Which depth players have clawed their way into the rotation? As great as the discussion was, it exposed a harsh truth: Nill’s deadline isn’t looking so hot. Obviously, the future of Bunting and Myers is in no way set. But the early returns don’t look good. Of course, all of Nill’s most important work is already done. The trade for Rantanen, the drafting of Heiskanen and Harley, etc. Nonetheless, the margins matter. How well Bunting and Myers do from here on out will be worth its weight in discourse on whether or not Nill found the right garnishment for an All-In year or not.

Further reading:

The Who Cares nature of Game 82 reminds me of the Who Cares chant whenever the opposing team scores. We all care. The players care. Management cares. Low stakes are not no stakes. And so on a night when everyone could have mailed it in, and punched the clock instead we got…like last time, more fun. That’s not a bad attitude to bring with you into playoff stakes. As much as I dislike bringing Mike Tyson into this, he used to say that it wasn’t the surly fighter that won fights, but the happy fighter. For whatever that’s worth, any edge is a good edge given where the Stars are headed.

I won’t trample over any broad strokes discussion for the time being. Tomorrow we’ll have a double header. I hope you enjoy. And I thank you for reading.

Gratitude seems to be the word of the day. Gratitude over the remaining health of the remaining roster. Gratitude for what has been an exciting, yet mysterious season. And gratitude for being able to take this journey with everyone who reads, contributes, and simply lurks from time to time.

Also thankful for seeing Dallas play an unexpectedly elite team. A shootout between two great teams is a fitting sendoff for both. Now I join you in the anxiety of the wait. The puck drop. And everything that happens from here on out.

Mavrik Bourque: 20 goals

The Stars Stack has always been a place for Bourque stans. His game has never been prone to easy analysis. Bourque isn’t a big guy, he’s not particular fast, and doesn’t really display the movement you’d expect out of a 40-point player. Everything he does, he does quietly, yet with maximum effort. There was a time when his shot was questioned, but anyone who watched Bourque closely across his full career knew that while shooting wasn’t his calling card, it wasn’t a weakness either. In fact, it’s been one of his many strengths. Bourque is not even shooting some crazy percentage. Converting at 9-10 percent at even-strength is your average shooter. Bourque is converting at 9.84 percent at even-strength. That he provides so much else is an asset. And that’s with half his season next to Oskar Back and Justin Hyrckowian. Credit to him. It’s probably — much as I hate to say — earned him an offer sheet. (Too soon?)

Trading pucks

Despite most of Dallas’ key players suiting up, it was nice to see the depth shine through. Goals from Bourque, Esa Lindell, and Justin Hyrckowian are exactly what the doctor ordered. It’s also something that will be in the spotlight with Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen both potentially out to begin the playoffs. There’s no margin for error without them. Which means there can’t be marginal players on the roster when the puck drops for the postseason.

Chemistry experiments

I thought Glen Gulutzan’s forward lines were interesting. Like many fans (or maybe just some?) I would have liked to have seen more Michael Bunting shifts with Mikko Rantanen and Wyatt Johnston. Instead we saw Bunting with Jamie Benn and Hyrckowian. Of course, this could mean nothing except Gulutzan wanting to see different looks. Nonetheless, with Roope Hintz guaranteed to miss the first two playoff games, maximizing chemistry between the existing forwards projects to be half the battle.

Meandering Strays

• One would think the final game of the season in which home-ice was clinched and the first round matchup was locked in that we’d be seeing nothing but Texas Stars getting NHL reps, but one would be wrong

• Sadly, I suspect the Arttu Hyry dream has died. Sorry Hyry fans.

• Sam Steel finally returned to the lineup. While seeing him on the top line brings back memories some fans would rather forget, it should be said that he looked good. He still looks like Sam Steel, but they had a few solid shifts where they burned Buffalo a little on the cycle. My money is the top nine being Bunting-Johnston-Rantanen, Robertson-Duchene-Bourque, and Benn with Steel and Hryckowian.

• Jason Robertson continues to be a shootout cheat code. Also, I will never not take the opportunity to link this great video for new fans on why Robertson’s shootout move is so layered despite looking like a one-trick pony (it’s actually three!).

• Feels fitting that on a night when I was going back and forth with a chart hugger on the merits of Esa Lindell vs. Miro Heiskanen that Lindell had one of his most pronounced games of the season. Heiskanen and Harley deserve the spotlight and they’ve earned it. Lindell tends to sit in their shadow for reasons I think everyone more or less understands. But if Dallas can hold off Minnesota without Heiskanen for a few games, I’d welcome a narrative shift. The Stars will have to win here and there via committee. But it’s a lot easier if the most unheralded players play like the best players in addition to the best plyers too.

• Buffalo was never a joke. But I don’t think anyone expected the punchline to swing so far in the other direction. It’ll be interesting to see how far they go. Pound for pound, they have arguably the best top nine in the league (Zach Benson with Josh Norris and Josh Doan has better chemistry than most top lines), and after Boston (which should be easy enough) they get to faceoff against whatever’s left of Tampa Bay vs. Montreal; which I expect to be lowkey one of the dirtier series (whatever you think of the Canadiens, they won’t be bullied off the ice). Don’t be surprised if the Sabres make it to the Conference Finals. You heard it here first!

That kind of held true. But it wasn’t for lack of trying. Certainly not for lack of trying by Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston. And it certainly didn’t lack in fun. Dallas never held a lead in the game…until the very end when they did.

With 27 power play goals, Wyatt Johnston now moves into the top 20 all time for most power play goals in a season, tied with Sam Reinhart for second among active skaters, below only Leon Draisaitl. He won’t catch Draisaitl’s 32 unless something else historic happens versus Buffalo on Thursday, but it’s a milestone all the same.

There were a few other milestones in the game but we’ll get to those. For now, the Stars can run on good vibes. It was one of the jankiest games of the season, but a lot of players will go into the postseason with some serious momentum, not to mention, something to prove.

The Tyler Myers discourse

Lots and lots of angry fans regarding Myers’ play. Which is their right. And also their justification. Myers played arguably his worst game in a Stars uniform (mostly in the first period, for what it’s worth). We sort of knew what we were getting when Myers was traded for: an aging veteran whose best years were behind him. However, that first period alone was pause for concern. I suspect his recent injury is factoring in here, which is all the more reason to shut him down for the regular season. Myers hasn’t exactly been great for a few years now, but he’s never looked that bad.

Early returns on a new top line

When Michael Bunting was brought in, the idea was to give Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen more offensive bite; someone with actual top six experience instead of the rotations with Sam Steel, Justin Hyrckowian, etc. No, Bunting has not looked comfortable yet. But he also had yet to play with Johnston and Rantanen. Sometimes all it takes is the right ingredients. I was impressed. Right away they were connecting with one another offensively, and finding each other from tape to space. If this is a glimpse into the future, then it’s a great one. Because Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque seem fine. Speaking of…

A new top line player

Bourque is officially a 40-point player. Bourque has been an interesting topic of discussion for over a year now. A little frustration set in early, and there was a time when his finishing ability was questioned (despite the fact that his goal totals were completely in line with the average forward). Bourque is probably not some secret 60-point forward. But he’s no longer punching above his weight and he still has one game to hit 20 goals. His ability to be responsible, play with some quiet dawg, and chip in with offense will be more than enough come the postseason. Talk about blossoming.

Meandering Strays

• Obviously, this isn’t a controversy except here, but when Roope Hintz and Sam Steel return, I’m super curious who comes out. Arttu Hyry would seem like the most obvious candidate, having played less games than the others. But his faceoff differential per 60 is already 15th in the entire league among skaters with at least 200 minutes of icetime. He’s been rock solid on the penalty kill, hit a post tonight thanks to a heavy shot, scored one thanks to Troy Stetcher’s shot, and all in all seems to have more layers than most of Dallas’ depth forwards. The last time Dallas brought an unheralded Finnish forward into the postseason, things worked out for well for both. Just a thought.

• This might literally be the first game all season where Casey DeSmith looked off. He wasn’t necessarily bad, but I think that’s the first time I’ve ever seen him look so froggy in net.

• Toronto is a cautionary tale for teams that move away from their identity in order to chase someone else’s.

• Quick note to paid subscribers: if you want early access to paid pieces, be sure to join the Discord (send a friend request to me and DM me your email on Discord so I can confirm). The Dallas vs. Minnesota preview is finished and it may take a couple of days to get through. No seriously. It’s a 31-minute read. (And if you don’t care and are happy to read it when it’s published, that’s cool too.)

The night turned into a little bit of everything (along with some potentially disastrous news), with both teams sparring like it was the real thing. The top players looked like the top players. Some depth players popped off with equal engagement, and in the end, Dallas ended up on top by being something they’ve struggled to do: by being an even-strength team rather than a special teams team.

Speaking of, I’d like to give a sticktap to Bob Wischusen for pointing out this distinction. I tend to be hypercritical of most broadcasts, usually for good reason; sometimes because I’m just looking for something to complain about. But I’ve never asked commentators to talk about synthetic goals, or delta fenwick save percentage. All I ask for is some informative context. So when Wischusen began pointing out that Dallas has been a great goal-scoring team, but not a great chance-generating team, I was both shocked and thankful. This is the kind of stuff that gets fans, new or otherwise, asking questions. It gets casual viewers thinking about teams not as good versus bad, but as teams with their own identities, and peculiarities. In short…it informs viewers. That’s not asking for a lot is it?

Granted, we’ll get to some problems within the broadcast too, but for now, it’s hard to say much else. Missing Miro Heiskanen for the bulk of the game, the Stars played a solid team game at even-strength.

The Stars haven’t technically locked up home-ice advantage, but it’s functionally there. While home-ice advantage has been anything but, that’s not to say it’s undesirable. Last season, the Stars did well with mixing and matching, so if Glen Gulutzan has any plans on that front, and can leverage it, it’s just one more thing they can hold over Minnesota’s head.

It was always going to be a street fight.

Round 1

The first period started out with the usual distance-measuring, but quickly turned into something we can expect in the postseason. Wyatt Johnston and Quinn Hughes traded goals on only plays that Johnston and Hughes can make. Meanwhile, the testosterone started flowing like the river wild. Lian Bichsel’s scrum counter was ticking up, Mikko Rantanen got blitzed by Marcus Johasson, Benn, Foligno — every shift will be like this in Round 1. Which made the first period feel like a round one.

Parros’ NHL

I don’t mind the physical stuff. I love it. As I’ve argued time and time again, to the point of exhaustion — what I don’t love is unpredictable violence. Chaos. Law without order. Et cetera. Nick Foligno being a sore loser on Dallas’ second goal was called, and that’s good. What’s less good is hearing the ESPN+ broadcast cheering on the Wild being babies about it just because it’s all ‘so exciting.’ This crap doesn’t need to be normalized. No team should have to look over their shoulder, worrying about the illegal plays following legal ones. And no broadcast should treat that as “part of the game.” I suspect this is exactly how Esa Lindell gets called for roughing. When every other violation is free to exercise under the right circumstances, all it takes is the wrong circumstances to make guilt disproportionate.

Special teams

Dallas is still a good penalty killing team. The problem, as we’ve discussed, is that Oettinger tends to get worse play in front of him shorthanded than say, Casey DeSmith. Even so, the Stars are kind of where they deserve when it comes to the PK. They’re 11th as of this writing. But they’re also 10th in expected goals against per 60, suggesting that they’ll need to find another level in the postseason. After all, tonight wasn’t exactly an accident. The Wild have become one of the best power play teams in the league thanks to Quinn Hughes. The Stars will need to be much better prepared if they don’t want that haunting them in an early offseason.

Meandering Strays

• A lot of things will be covered in the Dallas vs. Minnesota preview, but one interesting talking point is how Dallas treats Matt Boldy. Do they view him as more threatening than Kirill Kaprizov? Kaprizov is the better player but the difference between both is slim, IMO. In addition, Boldy is a very different player who offers Dallas different challenges. For one game at least, he also seemed to be the more dominant player against Dallas’ defense.

• Seeing some of the Jake Oettinger discourse, and I get it. I’ve openly expressed my skepticism of his game…even when he was successful. When it comes to analysis, I try to follow the facts and if the facts change, I change my mind. And so tonight felt like a convenient distillation of Oettinger’s core being: he’s everything you need a starting goaltender to be; just not everything you want. Dallas could have used someone to steal Thursday night’s chances. But two things can be true at once: your number one goalie needs to be able to steal a game, and your defense needs to be able to prevent your number one goalie from having to steal games in the first place. How many goalies are stopping those three power play goals? Kirill Kaprizov is not missing chances like that on anyone. We’re not talking three goals on the PK. We’re talking about three missed assignments leading to goals on the PK. There are times to have the Oettinger discourse. Tonight wasn’t one of them.

• As someone that has been chicken little when it comes to worrying about borderline stuff between both teams, I didn’t think Ryan Hartman’s hit on Heiskanen was dirty. Yes, Hartman has a history of dirt. But all it looked like was Hartman finishing his check, and Heiskanen falling awkwardly. Hopefully it’s nothing major. For what it’s worth, Heiskanen finished the shift, and walked it off to the dressing room.

• Cameron Hughes has been the consummate professional in Cedar Park. He plays a rugged game that isn’t absent skill, and for a minute, was their only hero when it seemed like nobody would or could score. He scored his first NHL goal tonight, becoming yet another “Maybe This AHL Dude Belongs” club. Of which Dallas seems to have many.

• Of all the teams to become Panther-brained over the years, Minnesota might top the list. What’s funny is that a player that actively gave Dallas difficulties last time, Bobby Brink, was scratched over players who Dallas can readily ignore when they’re not hitting stuff: Minnesota’s entire fourth line, basically. Of course, I do believe the Wild are a serious playoff team. They absolutely have the ability to win a seven-game series against Dallas. Is it probable? No. But it can certainly happen. However, if Minnesota does win, it won’t be because they added grit, and brought in some scrappers. It’ll be because talent like Boldy, Kaprizov, and Hughes pulled all the weight. Anyone minimizing the important of talent needs to ask Florida how they’re doing without Barkov.

Tonight’s contest with Calgary felt like this existential question put to the test. What began as a 40-degree day eventually turned into something of a microburst. It wasn’t super exciting, but we saw individuals in their own personal spotlights. Sometimes for good reason. Sometimes for bad reasons. But someone who didn’t find anything meaningless about this game? Wyatt Johnston.

His 26th power play goal of the season put away the Flames. As I mentioned on social media, 26 power play goals is third since 2007 behind Leon Draisaitl (who inexplicably cracked 30) and Sam Reinhart. However, Johnston is the youngest player in the modern to crack that many. Only Steven Stamkos comes close, with 24 for the 2009-2019 season. He was 19 when he did. Either way, that puts Johnston in some truly elite company.

Johnston will definitely have something to prove going into the postseason, though. His work is anything but cut out for him. Not only does he need to prove he can score power play goals in the playoffs, but that he can do so at even-strength too. We’ll see how Glen Gulutzan utilizes him too. Pete DeBoer was committed to making Johnston a matchup pivot. Given Johnston’s age, he’s only scratching the surface. Maybe he’s ready for the matchup minutes. Maybe he’s not. Regardless, Dallas will need his best. Thankfully Johnston seems capable of delivering. And at such a young age. Don’t underestimate the development curve on a player who has reached their peak.

Ping

Sometimes the breaks just don’t go your way. (First period only)

Super nova?

Robertson with Johnston and Rantanen had some good shifts, especially in the first five minutes of the second period. But I’ve been mostly underwhelmed by the trio. Keep in mind, this is not a judgment call. And we know this line will change when Roope Hintz gets back. But I think the issue is that all of them play the game a little too methodically, and a little too patiently. It works with one player on a line with different mindsets. But all three, and I think the game slows down a little too much. That can work in the right scenario, but as an even-strength shift? Not so sure. I only split hairs over this because I would have liked to see Duchene centering one of Robertson or Rantanen.

Ask and you shall receive!

Would you believe if I told you I wrote the above paragraph before the third period? Maybe, maybe not. I criticize everything anyways so it doesn’t really count as a win regardless. Nonetheless, it was amusing to see Robertson and Rantanen’s separation pay immediate dividends, with Hyrckowian indirectly helping on Johnston’s goal with Rantanen, and Mavrik Bourque indirectly helping on Robertson’s goal with Duchene. The idea here is that while Hintz is expected to be back in time for the playoffs, there’s no guarantee we see Hintz at 100 percent. It would be nice to know that Dallas can run two proper top six lines in that scenario. In Hintz’ absence, the Stars won’t find anyone better than Duchene to play second line pivot (a player that has struggled lately but looked sharp tonight).

Meandering Strays

• Justin Hyrckowian just keeps doing his thing. And right in front of the net. As good as he’s been, it’s kind of wild to think about a bottom six player that might be even better once the postseason rolls around. With the lack of clarity in the top six when healthy, I suspect Dallas’ depth will be in the spotlight more than usual.

• I talked about the 11-7 thing with Gavin on Spits and Suds when we did a postgame following the Colorado loss. In a nutshell, the right roster can support this approach, like Tampa Bay. But ultimately it comes down to the players. What good is 11-7 if the 7th defenseman is bad? Or if a solid forward is being scratched in favor of a defender of lesser value?

• However, just because it wasn’t meaningless doesn’t mean it especially mattered. With a win over St. Louis, Colorado clinched the division, officially earning home-ice in the West, mathematically forcing Dallas into that first-round grudge match with Minnesota. I don’t think I’m ready for the worst-case scenario. But I absolutely am for the best-case scenario. (I never claimed I wasn’t very petty.)

• Speaking of, that could NOT have been comfortable for Robertson in overtime there. A hockey player is…tough?!?

• Calgary has a long way to go, but I wonder how long it takes them to turn into the Buffalo of the West. They have a deep prospect pool, with Zayne Parekh, Matvei Gridin, Cole Reschny, Cullen Potter, and Hunter Brzustewicz leading the way. Three of them were on the ice tonight, and they looked absolutely fantastic. Like Winnipeg, the Flames will need to build through the draft, and hope their development happens quick enough to create a contender. They don’t look like much now, but the foundation is visible, and it looks stable.

• Quick FYI: I’ve been working on the Dallas vs. Minnesota preview for a minute. I’ll have a brief preview for an edition of Stars Stuff heading into the playoffs, but this one will be paywalled. For those who are paid subscribers, this is just a reminder that you can read it early on the Discord early access channel.

To that end, Stars fans might find this afternoon’s outcome almost reassuring despite the loss. Dallas played extremely well. In my book, that’s the long and short of it.

The less reassuring aspect is that while Dallas vs. Minnesota has been a functional lock for a long time, it is a mathematical one at this point. Can Dallas beat Minnesota? Of course. But can they win a Cup with enough juice left after going through Minnesota and Colorado? People can make fun of the Pacific all they want, but the team that comes out on top (which, hilariously enough, might not even be a Pacific team) will have the wind at their sails. No team that makes it that far should ever be underestimated. The hockey gods don’t abide by logic, after all.

Perhaps Dallas is ready for that kind of marathon. Whatever the case, the Stars played extremely well, but the margin for error was razor thin. And that was the difference. Sometimes that’s the story. It’s not a very entertaining one, and there aren’t many chapters, but it’s the truth.

The measuring phase

The first period was kind of fascinating. “Boring” for some, but I thought both teams brought exactly what they’re known for — just much more methodically. Colorado leveraged quantity (outshooting Dallas 16-12 in attempts at evens), while Dallas leveraged quality (outshooting Colorado 8-7 in scoring chances at evens). That feels a lot like how these teams operate. I know that playoff hockey gets the distinction of being 100 percent pure adrenaline or whatever, but in a seven-game series, every team needs to be able to slow things down at times. If Dallas can pull a team like Colorado into these “lulls” then it bodes well for them.

The stalemate phase

The second period would be the same as the first. Colorado with the slight edge in quantity, Dallas with the slight edge in quality. But the game got even tighter in the middle stanza. Both teams took a combined 14 shots on net in the first to only 10 total in the second. It was a continued showcase for how the Stars can grind out a war of attrition. Granted, Dallas missing Roope Hintz is not the same as Colorado missing Cale Makar, but I still thought Saturday afternoon’s game was loose litmus test through two periods. The Stars did great work collapsing down low and breaking out of the zone to keep Colorado either on the perimeter or off the rush entirely. They didn’t allow a single high danger chance in the second period.

All of this really felt like Glen Gulutzan’s philosophy executed to perfection through two periods; an approach that is diametrically opposed to Pete DeBoer, but also not merely a hollow reversal (moar defense instead of moar offense) of it either.

A critical breakdown

Sometimes it just takes one play. That was the case here, where Dallas left Artturi Lehkonen with simply too much space up high.

While some might point their fingers at certain players, this is something discussed in the systems piece. That’s how Dallas runs their defensive zone coverage.

All the players were in their positions. That is not to say that the system is to blame either; only that sometimes what happens on a goal is about what the scoring team did right over what the defending team did wrong. Few teams execute as quickly, and as crisply on offense than Colorado.

Meandering Strays

• Mavrik Bourque getting a penalty for trying to play a loose puck is certainly an officiating choice. I get that officiating is not a strict calculation of calls to be made or not made. Conceptually, that’s what they’re there for. But it never works like that because as we know — referees are there to manage the game; not to perform a checklist. That human element I can get on board with. After all, imagine the opposite. Imagine if calls were made by Sora AI. Oops. Relying on strict technology would disrupt the flow of the game, and arguably lead to just as many problems with distinctions functionally splitting hairs. How do you define a hooking or crosschecking penalty to the biometric nano-inch?1 So I get it. I just don’t get why NHL officiating can be so lazy. If you wanted to take two players, take Jamie Benn for jumping on the back of an Avalanche. I know this is not a big deal, and irrelevant in the grand scope of things, but it’s not irrelevant for Bourque to play the rest of the game feeling guilty, however lowkey, about playing legal hockey.

• One of Jamie Benn’s better games. While his performances have been hit or miss, it appears evident — to me at least — that he’s much more comfortable in Glen Gulutzan’s system than DeBoer’s (a phenomenon that goes past the physicality element).

• The defense pairs played pretty strong in my opinion. Thomas Harley in particular had some key moments in both zones.

• Wyatt Johnston’s puck control is downright ethereal. There were a couple of plays this afternoon where the puck was bouncing on him and he settled it with some supernatural hand-eye coordination. I know draft nerds would be able to describe this more eloquently, but I think it helps highlight why Johnston seems to glide through his routes with so much precision.

• I’ll be on Spits and Suds at the time of publication so be sure to check Gavin’s timeline for updates.

I don’t know, but I’ll pour some cold water on this one and say that beating a bad and injured Winnipeg team did not magically erase the previous seven games. But we can leave it there.

After all, this is a very unique year. As we’ve discussed before, if you look at any team this year — they all have games where they simply don’t look like themselves. Beyond just the condensed schedule there’s also the whole goaltending decline. I didn’t stop to do any analysis because I was multitasking writing this recap, and watching multiple games right now, but checking the last nearly 20 years of 584 rosters, and I counted at least 20 teams from this season that are in the bottom 100 in even-strength save percentage. I just wonder how much of that colors our perception.

Broad strokes aside, you’d be hard pressed to say a single negative thing about tonight. Jake Oettinger didn’t have a heavy workload, but it was obvious to even non-goalie nerds that he was locked in, playing aggressive when needed, challenging shooters, and ultimately locking the gates. The depth players popped off, and the stars had star moments, even if those moments didn’t always show up on the boxscore. It was, dare I say, a perfect night.

With one exception…

Karate explosion

Karate explosion, noun: a spectacular, rapid expansion of puck combat.

That’s how I think about it in hockey terms. That’s what I felt like I was watching; one of those classic martial arts films. Dallas just combo-pieced Winnipeg into oblivion in that first period. No, there are no lessons to learn from this. But whatever context we’re missing, sometimes it’s just fun to see a great team operating at the top of their game.

Robosmash

There’s a reason I took forever to write this article. And it’s because I feel like I’m being gaslit by the universe; that Jason Robertson is somehow not the kind of heart and soul player you get credit for being when you say half-cocked things on a podcast. So sure. He doesn’t play with froth on his mouth. But come on.

Robertson has been one of the better players during Dallas’ skid too. Yes, he’s taken way too penalties. But Robertson could not be accused of lacking his legs like others. In addition to being intensely productive, he’s been the proverbial dawg on the forechecking bone.

More nonsense

It wouldn’t be Parros’ NHL without at least one moment that deserved scrutiny and outrage. You’d be hardpressed to figure out what exactly Neal Pionk is doing that involves legal hockey.

I don’t think this was anything like the Radko Gudas hit on Auston Matthews. Gudas targeted the knee, went for it, and tore it up. Pionk doesn’t target the knee but he absolutely squats for the low bridge. Intent, thy name is…

There’s zero reason to get into this kind of posture for a hit unless some skulduggery is afoot. Obviously, nothing will happen, but plays like this should be treated the same as plays that do end in injury. After all, are we trying to change the outcomes…or the behavior?

Meandering Strays

• Arttu Hyry does it again. It was a great pass by Jamie Benn. But do I get to plug this piece again?

• The duo of Justin Hryckowian and Mavrik Bourque have forged some solid chemistry together. It’s tough to see Bourque demoted due to injuries, but it’s good to see them continue to play their games without the top six support they’re used to. A completely healthy lineup is never guaranteed so see depth players connect with one another is a huge plus.

• Great stuff from Dallas’ special teams.

• It’s hard to believe this is the same Jets team as last year…until you realize that last year’s Jets were not the Jets the year before that and the year before that. Elite teams don’t happen with the snap of the fingers, and so some of this is regression, but some is also a) losing Ehlers, who they mismanaged and b) never addressing their center depth and thinking Toews would somehow be the answer. This franchise is headed for dark days.

• For those that missed it, there is footage of fans back in December throwing up Nazi salutes at the American Airlines Center. There is now an open investigation per Lia Assimakopoulos. First off, props to Lia for digging into this story. Second, props to the Redditor for recording it and reporting it. Third, hopefully this emphasizes why it’s so important to support inclusive initiatives like Noche Mexicana, Pride Night, and the like. Sure they never go far enough, and if you really wanted to serve proper Mexican food, we’d see some huaraches at the AAC but baby steps. And finally: Nazi punks, fuck off.

I’m actually quite relieved that tomorrow I’ll be going over Glen Gulutzan’s system from A-to-Z. It gives me — and maybe some open minded doomers — a chance to take a breath and look at the nuts and bolts of what this team actually is.

It will be for paid subscribers (so buy me a coffee! — or don’t; I still love you all the same), but I’ll be sure to discuss snippets here and there for the next edition of Stars Stuff and throughout some of the recaps.

It was also on full display tonight too. Dallas is many things, and I think they’re many good things. Which is what you’d expect out of a team that is one of only two to officially clinch a playoff spot. But they’re also a team in flux. Glen Gulutzan has renovated a lot of what Dallas has ton tactically — with some specific exceptions — and it’s been in service of playoff hockey. Or so he says.

It won’t take long for us to find out if that’s just head coach bluster, or something real. But tonight felt like an example of Dallas still struggling to adapt to the new normal. The injuries and jumbled lines really emphasized how steep the learning curve is. Keep in mind, these are not excuses. If anything, you could call this a criticism. What good is a system if you don’t know how long it’ll take players to adapt to it? After all, if they can’t figure it out now, why assume they will eventually?

These are important questions, and the reason I’m writing about them is because I suspect they’ll get lost in the Jake Oettinger discussion (I’ll get to that). Dallas had a stretch where it really looked like they had it covered. It looked like everything clicked. Until it didn’t. But who were they really? Hopefully tomorrow’s piece will answer those questions.

Ugly starts

There’s not a lot to say about that first period. Dallas got punched in the mouth, twice. And they weren’t able to mount much going the other way. While I don’t believe this is a feature of the team, we are starting to see some of those features of lacking even-strength offense appear again. It’s hard to get a head start if you don’t have the puck. If there was any sliver of hope it’s that Boston has not been good at winning games in which they’ve owned a lead. That came into play later…until it didn’t.

Half Socchi

What a great goal by the captain, Jamie Benn. He was functionally vintage Benn for a second. However, I’m not a fan of this line. While I know there are only so many potential combos you can turn into a scoring line, there’s just too much lightness on defense for me to get on board with their play. They’re getting outshot 24-31 on net, and 43-66 on attempts. There’s a reason you don’t notice them unless they score. There’s nothing wrong with patchwork lines, but this feels like a line you try at home rather than the road.

Oettinger

It feels almost impossible to talk about Oettinger with a calm head these days. But let’s backtrack. Oettinger saved one goal below expected. Actual goals = 4. Expected goals = 3. So he wasn’t great but he didn’t choke the game according to MoneyPuck. If you look at Boston’s side, Joonas Korpisalo didn’t perform great, but he didn’t underperform the goal total. In other words, there is time for the Oettinger discussion, but this game wasn’t an excuse for one. There was a lot of poor play and way too much room in the neutral zone for Boston.

Meandering Strays

• The power play is on a rough stretch. They’re shooting 20 percent this month, which is still good (8th in the NHL in fact), but also well shy of their season-long 29 percent conversion. I suppose that puts things into perspective. Dallas’ poor run would actually be league average for any other team.

• Jason Robertson with Matt Duchene and Mavrik Bourque got completely worked by the Murat Khusnutdinov-Fraser Minten-David Pastrnak line. In fact, they didn’t register a single shot on net against them.

• Another really tough night for the top defensive pair. Dallas was outshot 4-8 with them on the ice. Safe to say, neither Miro Heiskanen nor Esa Lindell have suddenly forgot how to defend. But they’re certainly in the hurt locker.

• Jim Nill was given a two-year extension. I don’t think there’s a whole lot to say here. Elliotte Friedman’s wording was kind of weird, making it sound like Toronto might have been in on poaching him (?). I highly doubt it. It’s one thing to “always call.” It’s another to think Dallas would do anything but keep him. I have a lot of thoughts about Nill that I would describe as complicated. Winning an award tells me what his peers think of him, but it doesn’t tell me if he’s truly deserving. Like the Oscars. Nill’s an excellent GM. But he’s far from perfect, and this season feels like a Jekyll/Hyde distillation of it.

• Boston just made it a whole lot tougher for the Senators and the Red Wings. They’re unlikely to catch Boston at this point, which means they have to take the spot for themselves or hope the Blue Jackets start to stumble, which they have. Get your popcorn ready, Western Conference fans.

Also, a quick apology for the lack of recaps this weekend. I thought it was funny hearing Stars fans talk about how boring the Philadelphia game was. I thought it had a decent pace, all things considered, and I found it to be way more entertaining than the Pittsburgh game, which had about six hundred whistles and game stoppages above replacement. But more than that, it gave me the chance to start working on a truly comprehensive preview of the Dallas vs. Minnesota series. That thing will be a novel.

I suppose that’s the theme for these Stars; hope for better days ahead. This weekend wasn’t really a rejoinder to Dallas’ recent struggles. Yes, they got three points out of it. But they were outshot by both teams (looking only at shot attempts); two teams who had no business playing the Stars that tough given the Penguin’s injuries, and the Flyers’ raw lack of talent. Just two even-strength goals from Dallas all weekend.

I don’t think it’s hypercritical to call the performances for what they are. But it’s only that — criticism. It’s not judgment. While Dallas has hit a bad patch, I don’t think their bad patch represents anything close to what we can expect once the playoffs begin (similar to last season but for different reasons). The Stars have been a tough nut to crack all year. They won early in spite of themselves, regression arrived, and then they reversed the regression itself, settling into a genuine rhythm, and becoming an elite team that played like an elite team instead of merely getting elite results. The process and the outcomes eventually aligned.

That the new narrative has given way to the old one isn’t super surprising given the injuries. But more than that, I think it leaves us with a team who has the ability to surprise. Might they surprise us again once the first round begins? For better or worse, I think we can count on it. I still don’t know who Glen Gulutzan’s Stars are. But I know they can’t be counted out.

With that out the way, let’s get to the mailbag!

Given the schedule and the late season lilt we’re seeing from the Stars, how do you foresee any rest/ load management for the team the rest of the way? It seems to me it would behoove the Stars to make sure Heiskanen, Esa, Harley, Robertson, Johnston, Duchene, Benn are as fresh as possible going into round 1 given that any deep run through the West is going to be a slog for the Stars.

Dom Luszczyszyn wrote a really great article on this several years back. Other leagues do it. Why doesn’t the NHL? Simple: parity. According to Micah Blake McCurdy’s model, there are five points projected to separate Dallas and Minnesota from home-ice advantage. If the Wild start closing the distance, how much incentive is there for Dallas to keep their top players on ice if it means losing home-ice advantage? Dom mentions another point that is worth re-emphasizing here: hockey culture. The league and its dippy talking heads are all about what puts the most hair on your chest. There’s no such thing as taking the night off. Remember in 2013 when Patrice Bergeron played through torn rib cartilage, a broken rib, a separated shoulder, and a punctured lung? That’s the standard. Players are expected to play come hell or high water, and the dudes abide.

At this point, with the Avs (realistically) out of reach, is it time for some load management down the stretch to prepare for the second season? You still have to fight off Minny for home ice, of course. Even if they get a point a game that would do it.

To add to the question above, one reason why I think it’s smart to initiate load management is that parity or not, things like home-ice advantage have become extremely volatile in recent years, to the point where they’re not advantages at all. The biggest challenge is overcoming a Game 1 loss. That’s not to say that just because there’s been increasingly more statistical variance to home-ice that teams shouldn’t aim to get it. Just that if it’s the difference between Mikko Rantanen getting hurt in Game 82 versus a tanking team like Vancouver and home-ice in Round 1, then what the heck are we even doing here?

Something Dimitri has expressed at least a couple of times on the PDOcast is his concern that Nils Lundkvist might struggle with getting outmuscled in front of the net and along the boards in the playoffs. What are your thoughts?

Not to speak for Dimitri, but I never read his comment as “I’m concerned that Lundkvist will struggle in the playoffs” and more like “Dallas will likely be concerned that Lundkvist will struggle in the playoffs.” I could be wrong. For the most part, this sort of stuff gives me a headache from all the motion that comes from having my eyes roll over and over. And I’m not talking to you, Ron, but in general.

What I hate about this discussion is that it assumes a monocausal narrative for postseason performance. Small player struggles in the playoffs, therefore being small is a problem. Anyone watch Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn in the playoffs last season? Plenty of size. Plenty of suck too. Hasn’t Darnell Nurse been a problem for Edmonton? Cody Ceci wasn’t small. Tyler Myers and Lian Bichsel are small buildings. Have they been perfect lately?

What I’m getting at is that just because the playoff atmosphere requires more physicality doesn’t mean physicality is the most consistent gamestate for each player. It’s not. We still see pretty goals in the postseason. Special teams don’t go away. Skill never leaves. If anything, the playoff atmosphere increases the premium on skill. You can’t brawl your way into scoring goals. So sure, Lundkvist may struggle in front of the net and along the boards in the playoffs. But what about Tyler Myers struggling to control the puck along the boards? What about Lian Bichsel losing a footrace into the corners? What about all the breakouts that don’t happen? What about defenders punting chances in the offensive zone and letting a counterrush go the other way because they didn’t have the offensive mind to extend that offensive zone shift and instead opted for lazy offense with a lazy shot?

I’m not saying Lundkvist won’t struggle. Nor am I even calling into question the playoff narrative about what it takes to win. But what I am saying is that all traits are affected by playoff hockey. Small players struggle. Big players struggle. Playmakers struggle. Shooters struggle. Nobody has it easy in the postseason. Well, except the TV analysts. They have it easy. Analyzing replays of how hard a hit was earns the big bucks.

This is probably less of a mailbag question and more of an article topic, but are there any trends that have emerged in the Sznajder tracked games since your last breakdown?

This is something that I’ll be looking to unpack later. Admittedly it’s hard to justify sifting through the data for a team like Dallas only because they’ve been such a different team since the end of January. Corey is still just one man that inexplicably doesn’t have an NHL gig (hopefully Rich Peverley’s first order of business), and so we have a small smattering of games in the beginning and a small smattering of games over the last couple of months.

For a team of two halves like the Stars, it’s just hard to take too many lessons, even if the broad strokes are still well-defined. Dallas is still a weak shot-generating team. But if we’re only looking at them since January 22, they’ve shot all the way up to top 10 in high danger chances per 60, and rank 16th in scoring chances-for. That’s a major jump from the bottom 10 categories they were in to begin the season. Looking only at defense, or chances allowed, and they’re even better; top five across all categories; shot attempts against, scoring chances against, high danger, you name it. My personal theory is that somewhere along the way, Dallas’ roster finally started to figure out Glen Gulutzan’s second option — which is very different than Pete DeBoer’s — on breakouts.

Erne, Bastian, Hyry, Faksa... Who is your pick for annual unlikely playoff hat trick?

Hyry. Because only Finnish players need apply. How awesome was that shorthanded goal? I know Hyry will be one of the first sent down once healthy bodies start coming back, but you can tell that like Matt Duchene, he’s gotten better as he gets more distance from his concussion.

Oettinger vs DeSmith

What are the odds we seen Casey DeSmith get some post-season starts in net? IMO he’s been the better goalie throughout the year, with the obvious caveat of a much smaller workload and accompanying benefits. But Otter IMO doesn’t deserve “no doubt every game starter” in net status; he’s been meh after a couple of meh post-seasons. The Stars have a terrific goalie TANDEM but their starting goalie isn’t anything particularly special. I would want to leverage that advantage and give DeSmith some starts. Obviously, once games are played if one or the other clearly stands out you adjust accordingly.

Slim to none. I don’t agree with it, but this is the nature of the beast. When you have a starter with Olympic creds and a big contract who is loved in that locker, he gets the benefit of the doubt no matter what happens. However, I think my analysis of Oettinger here and here have paid respect to the fact that he does have a better track record in the playoffs, even beyond the famous Calgary series. Enough to deny DeSmith consideration? No. But enough to strengthen that benefit of the doubt.

However, I do agree in general. This is what always bothers me when I hear coaches question their own team’s mentality, and whether they try hard enough or “got it between the ears” like we’re seeing in Toronto and Detroit. Or think back to how no one cared to question Rick Tocchet on his responsibility when two star players tore the room in half. Is this not the job? What is a coach for if not to be the communicator in the room? “You’re the man Otter. As long as you wear that sweater, you always will be. But you’re also a man of this team. And this team needs DeSmith until you fight him for it; until you can rip it from his tallons. You don’t have to like it. You shouldn’t like it. But for right now, I need you to respect it. I need you to handle it with the same grace as Casey does when he backs you up. Because he also has to know that you respect him, and that we’re all in this together making the same sacrifices.” Et cetera.

If coaches or management are afraid of a player’s reaction to their decision, then the coaches or management don’t have much control do they?1 Even beyond just the drama of it all, I think Kevin Woodley, who knows better than anyone when it comes to goaltending, that this might be the postseason — when goaltending is at an all time low — where at least one team is willing to go there and play shadow games with a rotation to disrupt the shooters. It’s a stretch, and even Woodley admits it, but I suspect the team that does it will get the most bang for their buck. Could that be Dallas? It won’t be. But hopefully they won’t be afraid of trying it should they need it and not before it’s too late.

With the season winding down, which player represent the best surprise and the biggest disappointment?

Let me just say up front that I don’t believe such a player exists on the disappointment side. I don’t say that out of cheap diplomacy either. Early on this would have been easy: Thomas Harley, Matt Duchene, Jake Oettinger, take your pick (I’ll judge Oettinger once the season’s over — again, Oettinger’s situation is unique in that all goaltending is under water right now). But when you consider how the season has progressed, the compressed schedule and lack of practice time, and the way the roles have had to be filled, I think a strong case could be made that the players are the ones making things work. If anything, it’s the environment working against them. And I don’t mean that in a negative or critical way. Just that the core and the support group are the ones responsible for executing Glen Gulutzan’s very different take on the system. Even a whipping boy like Sam Steel can’t be targeted here. Not after what he accomplished as part of DJ Steel’s debut album.

To me the biggest surprise is far and away Justin Hyrckowian. As I’ve brought up over and over again, I really thought they’d pick Arttu Hyry out of camp just based on his size and skill (Hyry is not super skilled or anything, but he does some things that skilled players do) alone. I got caught up in the cynicism of feeling like Hryckowian getting in fights and instigating kerfuffles was a distraction away from his puck play, and the cheap and easy way to earn a path to the coach’s heart — especially a coach preaching an increased physical presence. It all just felt too clean, especially after what I had seen in Cedar Park, where his playmaking was a lot less evident in the same way that Roope Hintz’ was when he was a Texas Star (let this be a lesson: playmaking is the hardest skill to assess in the rough and tumble north/south hockey of the AHL).

Nils Lundkvist deserves a shoutout but we’ll get to him in a bit because there are some…haters??

Humor (me) us

This is an offseason question but if/when Toronto has a fire sale, any interest in Maccelli or Nick Robo? Obviously depends on what the return would be and cap questions but speaking strictly in hockey terms. Or, just for fun, would you give up Robo if Nylander or Knies were available? I want him to stay but we can have fun hypotheticals too.

As readers know, I’ve been a Maccelli truther for a minute now. It’s been tough seeing Craig Berube’s goofy treatment of the Finnish playmaker in Toronto. Despite getting bottom six minutes, he’ll clear 40 points this season with only 71 games played. It’s unsurprising that better usage has led to 13 points in his last 15 games. The same could be said of Jason’s younger brother, who is more of a pure shooter. Listen. I’m convinced that Justin Hyrckowian is a serious NHLer. I learned my lesson. But I need more convincing that he has top six upside. Which is why I would love someone like Maccelli or Robertson next to Roope Hintz. But again. That’s just in a perfect(er) world.

As far as the other scenario, no. And no. I personally think Toronto screwed up when they didn’t trade William Nylander before his NMC kicked in. No team has won with a core of elite scorers and literally nothing else. Nylander might be pound for pound one of the most talented forwards in the game. But his defense is genuinely poor. If the Leafs had traded Nylander for a defender, and kept Mitch Marner, I think they’d be in a better place. Marner might not be the offensive difference maker that Nylander is, but he plays both sides of special teams, and is a complete two-way forward who’s still good for 80-90 points.

As for Knies for Robertson…(don’t know what the hell adjusted plus/minus is? Click here!)

When it gets down to it, Robertson really is the perfect weapon. It’s too bad hockey culture is backwards and the fancy suits gaslit hockey fans into thinking Robertson is not actually one of the best American-born forwards in the game, but here we are. Same world that justifies giving up picks for Logan Stanley (who has been predictably awful in Buffalo), or that Miles Wood has a place in the lineup over Kent Johnson. And to be sure a Knies trade could be easily justified. Despite his underlying numbers, he’s a 23-year old 6’3 power forward who is 60 points in the bank, and looks the part of the token manimal. If a trade like this happened, you’d get 20 stories within the first 10 games of how Knies gives Dallas a “different dimension” and all the usual after-the-fact analysis. It would absolutely break me because you can always see hackwork coming a mile away and I wouldn’t bother to hide my totally unprofessional frustration. But…

…a potential trade like this is not about the players but about the potential big picture. Carolina obviously downgraded from Mikko Rantanen to Logan Stankoven and some first rounders. But it also allowed them to flip those picks and the accompanying cap into K’Andre Miller and Nikolaj Ehlers. Knies at $7.75 million until 2031 would give the Stars not just cap relief, but flexibility of adding to the roster and bolstering the blueline. The Hurricanes are proof of concept that you can lose a trade, but that doesn’t mean you’ll lose the war. Typically the teams that make these big trades don’t have the appetite for more than one move at a time, which is where they get stuck. So if Knies for Robertson were on the table, it would have to be with others moves on the table in conjunction.

I’ve had this discussion on the Discord, and just to be clear, I’m not anti-trade when it comes to Robertson. I’m just anti-nonappreciation when it comes to Robertson as anything other than one of the best forwards in the game. If you think of forwards as being a stone skipped across the pond, I would even go so far as to say that there is not a Dallas Star forward who comes close to having his residual impact. He’s the rare blue chip talent who who can jailbreak a game and lockpick it.

This is just rhetorical question: Are we ever gonna get rid of Lundqvist?!

…

Yeah Everytime I see Lundquist I think of the first round pick we lost. Other than the top three D men it is hard to find a partner for Bish.

I’m jumbling these two comments together because they feel oddly out of place. But respect to you both, and don’t let me make you feel marginalized just because you have a different opinion. Early in the season, I would have agreed with you. Perhaps because I was just tired of this song and dance. It wasn’t about Lundkvist himself. I just didn’t feel the need to be put through the ringer. Again. And again.

But let this be a lesson for you eye testers (and I’m including himself here). What you do see when you watch Lundkvist? And be honest about how you answer the following question. Because it applies to everyone, and it cuts to the heart of any eye test.

• Are you seeing what you need to see, or what you want to see?

joy joy feelings: thanks for all the awesome content and the even-keel for things that need it and the sharp skepticism for things that need it too.

Oh! And a question: Your thoughts and Feelings on Peverley and what that means for the future?

Thanks Ash!

Nobody ever called me even-keeled before. For those that don’t know, Ash is part of our four-person book club where we take one full month to read a sci-fi/fantasy book of everyone’s choosing, and then talk about it for an hour. And yes, anyone can be a part of it as long as you’re on the Discord (which Dimitri Filipovic recently joined; which still makes me giddy). We read and discussed Children of Time, which for me was a delight as a quick and clean space opera but was otherwise extremely generic. It was the Wendy’s spicy chicken sandwich of space opera — better than it has any right to be, but neither good for your body or mind.

As far as Rich Peverley is concerned, I have no idea. When you look at player development under his watch, it’s improved in a big way on the prospect side. But it sounds like he’s also been involved in the pro scouting side as well, which has been much less successful. This is neither praise nor criticism though. After all, I have no idea what Peverley’s role has been in this dual-capacity. I can’t speak to Peverley’s record from within the organization, nor do I know what this portends for him as an assistant general manager. That he’s a former player tells me nothing about his ability to manage a sports operation.

It’ll be interesting to see how things break down in a post-Nill world. By all accounts, Nill sounds like a collaborator by nature, so I wouldn’t expect much to change. While my interview with Dallas’ Director of Analytics was largely about…well, analytics…we also got some insight into how Nill works with his team, hence my impression.

When everybody is healthy… what do you see as the Stars best line-up??

Alright this I expect to be a little spicy.

But here’s the logic:

• Michael Bunting has an established offensive history and can put up points under the right conditions whereas Hyrckowian is still an x-factor. In other words, Dallas has more to gain by getting the most out of Bunting2.

• Bichsel might already be one of Dallas’ four best defenders. Hey, they’re making four lefties work in Buffalo!3

• My personal belief is that offense matters more than defense in limited minutes, which is why I favor Colin Blackwell just a smidge (he’s no home run hitter, but compared to the other forwards in his spot? Also helps that he’s a natural righty).

I’d only want to see this if everyone got some reps in the regular season though. I’m okay with the status quo otherwise.

Since we’ve basically gotten confirmation from Nill that the Robertson extension is happening and priority number 1, have Bourque and Lundkvist played themselves off the roster? Both are having parallel years in some sense where they’ve grown into trusted top six/four roles and have played pretty well while their counting stats haven’t necessarily caught up (although Bourque’s are starting to). It seems Bourque is going to need a fair raise/ bridge deal and Nils will probably deserve a bit more money and term as well. It seems to me like the Stars could fit those two guys into the cap after the Robertson extension, but then would have no money left over for anything else which may be an issue? That still leaves 3 forward slots and any defensive depth signings with very little money to spare.

I’m not going off anything concrete, but I have the sneaking feeling that no matter what has been said, all bets are off if Dallas gets ousted. I’m not saying this to be dramatic, nor am I saying this to be critical of this Stars team. It’s just an odds thing: the odds of Dallas being able to go the Conference Finals for the fourth consecutive year would be an anomaly for any team. Even the Panthers couldn’t manage that. In addition, the playoff format puts them through the meat grinder within the first two rounds. It’s hard to imagine Dallas not looking to shake things up in that scenario, justified or not. Do I believe Nill is correct to keep Robertson, regardless of the postseason outcome? Yes. But just imagine if Dallas lost to Minnesota in the first round. You think anyone is happy to run it back? You think fans wouldn’t be itching to see a roster shakeup? This is amateur hour spitballing, I know, but still.

Mavrik Bourque is the player that I think Dallas will battle to keep. They won’t be able to shop at any bargain bin for a top six right winger, and Bourque, warts and all, has fit that bill. I suspect he’ll clear $2M in AAV easy but not much more. Lundkvist, conversely, is a lot harder to judge. With Tyler Myers in the fold, and Dallas being comfortable with their AHL depth (depth that keeps growing with the youth movement4), I have to think Lundkvist is the odd man out here.

That means shaking the Ilya Lyubushkin contract will give them room to bring in a veteran on one of those Benn or Kane type show-me deals. It’s not a bad scenario, all things considered. It’s worth remembering that even this roster as is still has a potential extra gear. Johnston and Harley in particular arguably haven’t shown their best.

Also, while I know Dallas doesn’t have a ton of prospects left, they haven’t exactly emptied the cupboards. Justin’s brother, Dylan Hryckowian already looks like his transition to the AHL won’t be problematic for him. Beyond him there are several players that have real potential IMO. It’s worth remembering that despite their experience as a playoff contender, the Stars contention window is still in its infancy.

However, all this talk is mostly pointless. The real question is whether or not Dallas’ current stretch is reflective of anything they can potentially bring with them into the postseason. The good news is that one thing that the current stretch is not a reflection of, is the roster itself. No Mikko Rantanen, no Roope Hintz — no easy nights.

The bad news is that Dallas really seemed to be crawling their way out of the possession hole that defined their first half of the season, whether they were winning or losing, and now we’re seeing the team they used to be; a team that has trouble shooting because they don’t often have the puck, and who allow too much space in the neutral and thus too many chances off the rush for the goaltending to be as consistent as they need it to be in the pockets that matter.

Will that change in time? Probably. Part of what we’re seeing are some uncharacteristic performances from players like Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell. That won’t last. Dallas has mostly received sterling performances from their best players. But this is clearly a team not just struggling to stay afloat in terms of possession, but a team that has close to eight forwards who are strictly fourth-line material. The depth, or lack thereof, would always catch up to them.

On a night where they’d be facing Ilya Sorokin, I wouldn’t sweat tonight’s performance the way fans probably did for New Jersey, Vegas, and Utah. I’m not making excuses (Islanders had the 13-8 edge in high danger chances). And we’ll get to that in a bit. But this is not the night to call a team on pace for 110 points a “fraud.”

First period blues

Early in the season, Dallas’ biggest problem is that they simply conceded too much space to opponents in the neutral zone. It was a major factor in what led to Dallas’ lack of anything resembling possession. Jack Han wrote a really good piece on it in November.

Hockey Tactics Newsletter

Why doesn't DAL shoot the puck?

Before the season, I had the Dallas Stars as a Stanley Cup favorite and one of the NHL’s most offensively prolific teams…

Read more

5 months ago · Jack Han

I did my best to understand the phenomenon from the perspective of the forwards. Since the end of January, Dallas has done a much better job of playing tighter as a group. While their possession numbers are still a problem (they rank 24th in shot attempt share), they’ve at least focused on creating a strength; in this case, keeping shots down. However, their current funk definitely makes them look like the team from earlier in the season. Even their best defenders are playing loose gaps, which has put a further strain on the netminding. It’s hard to tell if this is a regression to the mean in general, or a regression to the mean based on the injuries. While we’re only talking about two forwards, the Stars are really built on established chemistries. They can’t just throw dudes together in a paper bag and let them rip like Colorado.

Robo Gadget Skates

Jason Robertson was the player I noticed the most, and really had himself a hell of a game. The effort, the physicality, and the layup to his teammates were all there. Over the last year-plus, everyone and their grandmothers have an opinion about what Dallas should do, and what Robertson’s fate might be, not to mention his on-ice value…which is inexplicably questioned. I get that the Robertson Rumor Industrial Complex keeps the gambling ads flowing into content creator pockets, but discussion that doesn’t reckon with his strict on-ice value has lost any and all plots. Leave it to the most underrated analyst in the business to stick a fork in this casserole of half-baked drama. Just read it. All of it.

Virtual Hockey Scout

2025-26 Season Spotlight: Jason Robertson

Most of the noise surrounding Jason Robertson lately has revolved around his exclusion from Team USA’s Olympic roster. Why didn’t Bill Guerin pick him? What’s missing from his game…

Read more

24 days ago · 9 likes · 2 comments · Vinh Cao

The dreaded one-goal game

I noticed the telecast talking about Dallas’ record in one-goal games. It’s nice to win those games, but what makes winning a one-goal game any different from say, a two-goal game or a three-game goal? Stuff like this is why I tend to advocate for an understanding of better stats. If a team is good at winning by a single goal, does that tell us that they’re good in general? Good in one-goal games, specifically? Is this a pattern that translates into the postseason? Thing is, we already have some concept of this. It’s called sequencing. Stronger teams tend to win close games, but also tend to lose ‘big’...suggesting that if we cut out the noise of empty netters and PDO benders, we’d probably get at a team’s true goal differential. Games like this are reminders that playing tight can sometimes be the same as rolling the dice. I’m not saying Coach Reilly was right (“it’s not worth winning if you can’t win big!”). He was, after all, the bad guy. But he was half-right.

Meandering Strays

• The scratch of Michael Bunting is something I’m okay with as something of a kickstarter. He really has been invisible. Understandable reasons or not, you’d at least want to see added effort, and Bunting hasn’t been his usual pesky self. However, his most common linemates have been Colin Blackwell, Adam Erne, and Justin Hyrckowian. This is a forward who overachieved next to Auston Matthew and Mitch Marner, Evgeni Malkin and Rickard Rakell. I realize the injuries leave Glen Gulutzan out of options, but regardless of how this trade is evaluated when all is said and done, I’d like see Bunting gets reps over some of the depth players that have a lot less offense.

• In what has otherwise been an especially tough stretch on the defense, Nils Lundkvist has been fantastic. I meant to talk about him last game, but I thought this was another quality performance from a young defender who has done nothing but prove that perhaps Dallas didn’t need to add a defender after all.

• Sam Steel exited the game for reasons that we still aren’t clear on.

• I know the d-pair gives broadcasters a lot of runway to talk about how tall they are, but Lian Bichsel and Tyler Myers do not have chemistry. Dallas is getting outshot 24 to 39 with them on the ice, and this was another game where the height couldn’t save them from the forecheck.

• Islanders are back in a playoff spot thanks to the win over Dallas. That race in the East will likely come down to the final minutes ,and not just the final days. While I don’t believe the Islanders are legit, Sorokin and Matthew Schaefer can sort of do anything.

But linger it did. One thing that deserves being mentioned — stick with me — is that you should never let the standings fool you. New Jersey is still a very good team. Their problem is that Markstrom cratered, players like Nico Hischier and Timo Meier have been snakebit, and they suffered a lot of blue line injuries. The Stars functionally played last year’s Devils. Just something to keep in mind.

Having said that, a performance like that is less about what it says about the team for tonight, and what it means for their future. The regulation loss, combined with Colorado’s revenge on Pittsburgh tonight, locks in the first round matchup. The Stars are now at 99 percent odds to play Minnesota. So not only is tonight a loss, but it’s a loss for other reasons. Colorado gets to be attacked by pillows versus Nashville or L.A in Round 1 while Dallas and Minnesota crack each other’s skulls in a series that I will dramatically admit, is a series I expect to get ugly1.

For all the doom and gloom, however, don’t let the end game get twisted. Dallas is still on pace to finish with 111 points, which is expected to be right next to Carolina as the next best teams behind the Avalanche. A small consolation? Maybe not. But losses like these happen. Especially without key players. A lot will be made about Jake Oettinger’s performance, and for good reason, but the bigger deal is that this is arguably Dallas’ fifth game in a row where they’ve looked somewhere between awful and meh.

Outside of a few bursts of energy, they never had control, and New Jersey essentially had their way with them for 90 percent of the game, at least in the neutral zone.

Things won’t get easier either if Dallas continues playing like this. They have the Islanders, Penguins, Flyers, and Bruins all next, all on the road. Outside of the Flyers hanging around like zombies, all of those teams are locked into a vicious Eastern Conference wild card race.

First period meltdown

That’s probably the worst period Dallas has played all year. It wasn’t just the goals. Which, sure, four goals in one period is obviously bad. But it was the body language from everyone involved. Jake Oettinger seemed stunned opponents were looking to shoot on him at all, and the defense gave New Jersey the red carpet every time they broke into Dallas’ zone. It was an unsettling bit of hockey that one can only trust won’t be replicated any time soon.

New D-pairs

Tyler Myers and Lian Bichsel were victimized on the opening goal, and struggled throughout the first period as much as the rest of the team. I’ve always felt like it was only a matter of time until we saw Myers with Thomas Harley, and Bichsel with Nils Lundkvist. It’s not directed at any one player; it’s just about seniority. It certainly wasn’t the cause of Dallas’ dramatic bounceback in the second period, but it was worth nothing. It’ll be interesting to monitor how each pair and whether or not it comes matchup dependent or something else.

Don’t call it a comeback (no seriously: don’t)

Johnston on hat trick, starting with a power play goal? What’s new. Today’s piece couldn’t be more timely.

Just to stress it once more, Johnston is one goal away from being the only 25-goal scorer on the power play his age in the modern era — period. That now puts him in the top 33 all time. He only needs a couple more to make it in the top 20 alongside names like Brett Hull, Mike Bossy, and Phil Esposito. Which is insane. It’s wild to think that a Johnston three-point night wasn’t enough on home ice.

Meandering Strays

• Oettinger’s performance was bad. There are no two ways about it. In fact, this was a unique game in that Dallas basically gave up the exact same chances in front of DeSmith that they gave up in front of Oettinger. Analysis should never be that clean, but it’s harder and harder to ignore what I wrote earlier this month: a moral dilemma indeed.

• Good stuff from Mavrik Bourque and Justin Hryckowian on that last goal. With 14 goals on the season, Bourque has now scored the average amount of goals for a forward with at least 500 minutes played. “Weak” shooter my arse!

• I miss DJ Steel. I know the team is trying to get Michael Bunting going, but not only is that line not helping him do that, but it’s not helping Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene either. Who knew Sam Steel was what tied the two together?

• I still don’t believe this is a game of lessons. Dallas is simply handling the compressed schedule worse than other teams under the weight of some injuries. This is a team that has backed into the postseason before. They also don’t need to sell out at this point trying to catch Colorado.

• Speaking of which, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Dallas’ decline in performance has occurred while the best defenders have looked more human than human lately. Heiskanen, Lindell, Harley; they’ve all had moments of ugh that are no doubt due to fatigue.

• The Devils will be back in the playoff picture next year. I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it — they’re a much older team — but I would expect it.

I can certainly see why fans felt like they were drowning. Dallas played as poor a game as I’ve seen since their win streak. Yes, it was a back-to-back, but it was for Vegas too. While the Stars are injured, they did rotate fresh legs, presumably to help prevent a night like Sunday. Instead a super heroic effort from Casey DeSmith went to waste thanks to a common theme for what has felt like a very modest stretch lately: miscommunication.

The Stars will be fine of course. Perhaps the loss feels worse than it is because they had worked so hard to close the Central gap. Now the Stars, who had cut to within two of Colorado just days ago — and within the blink of an eye — have fallen to five points back, leaving the Avalanche in complete control of their own destiny.

Is this that big of a deal? Not really. In 2024, Dallas picked the toughest road possible, having to beat the defending Cup champs, with their follow-up matchup a seven-game series versus the defending Cup champs from the previous year. Dallas pulled through. And they have a few motivated players to prepare for a potential Wild series this postseason

However, I get the doom itch that some fans are scratching. Those matchups arguably emptied the victory green tank. One could make the same case in 2023, when Dallas went into the Knights series with 13 games played across the Minnesota and Seattle matchups. These are not excuses; just the reality of any deep run. Not every series needs to be a street fight. You’re allowed the one-punch knockout. But here’s the issue with that doom itch: that was a Pete DeBoer phenomenon.

Obviously, things might not change, but Dallas will have to endure because that’s really what the NHL playoffs are: an endurance test. DeBoer’s teams could never find a dominant gear to close games out, and it certainly didn’t help that they seemed to always lose the first game of the series (or were scored on first). It’s just something to keep in mind in case you’re worried about another brutal series of matchups to start the playoff run. Yes, it’s a tough break to be a Central team that has to face two top-five teams within the first two rounds because the NHL is clueless. But making history isn’t supposed to be easy. Just ask Wyatt Johnston. Speaking of…

Power play merchants of yore

I’ve always hated that phrase: 'power play merchant.’ Yes, I get the implication. A power play merchant is supposed to be a player whose production rides the power play’s coattails. But do we talk this way about defensive players? Do we negatively describe them as ‘penalty kill merchants’? This terminology feels like a vestige of the traditionalist mindset; namely that offense is more about talent is thus easier, whereas defense is more about effort, and is thus harder. It’s the classic circular logic of talent; something we identify only after we’ve seen it.

Which is ridiculous, especially in the modern era where offense is a strict combination of effort, skill, and problem-solving. Aside from which, the power play is not some marginal gamestate like 3-on-3. If someone can add value on the power play, that’s pretty important. That doesn’t mean a power play merchant should be especially desirable when building a roster; just that they shouldn’t be treated any different than someone who makes their living on the PK.

I mention all this in the context of Wyatt Johnston because of this. Nick Suzuki is having an amazing year. So amazing that he already has 39 points on the power play, four more than Johnston. And yet even Suzuki’s power play production accounts for a smaller percentage of his total points than Johnston (45 percent to 48). Should that be pause for concern? No; for the same reason that criticizing anyone for being excellent on special teams is just plain dumb. Yes, there are players who can be active drags at even-strength. But how many of those can you name off the top of your head? I realize I’m getting away from the point, and the point should be obvious — Johnston is super skilled which is why he’s producing at an elite level — but it’s worth emphasizing all the same.

However, the true test of talent is how Johnston compares to his cohort. As I mentioned on social media, Johnston is now 8th in power play goals since 2007 for a single season (top 50 all time). Only players ahead of him in ascending order are Stamkos (09-10), Draisaitl (21-22), Kreider (21-22), Ovie (14-15), Ovie (13-14), Reinhart (23-24), and Draisaitl (22-23). However, if you include only players his age or younger, that list drops to three; just three players to score more than 20 power play goals in the modern era. One is Steven Stamkos, who scored 24 PP goals in the 2009-2010 season. The other is Alex Ovechkin, who scored 21 in 2007-2008. And then there’s Johnston, with 23. That’s insane company.

So yes. Power play merchants! Bring me more!

Colorado pulls ahead

Colorado is now firmly in the driver seat. Their first round matchup? I know.

The Predators had such an abysmal start it would have been impossible for them to continue being that bad. But what happened wasn’t just a PDO anti-bender, but a team that was actually lowkey good. The wins were a steady drip rather than some sort of obscene run like Buffalo. It’ll probably be a tight race with L.A., but it’s still amusing to see how the playoff picture has changed.

If Dallas can make it through the first two rounds, it’s hard to imagine a more ideal year for them to go all the way. I guess that’s the “benefit” of having it so tough early. (Also: if Utah makes it to the Western Conference Final, I want you to have totally expected it.)

Sticks And Salvos

Get Hype (Or Not): The Utah Mammoth, Arizona fans are welcome to celebrate the playoffs at last edition

One sentence summary…

Read more

8 months ago · 17 likes · 7 comments · David Castillo

Stray observations

I realize Dallas wants to give Michael Bunting some rope here, but I’d like to see them leave the DJ Steel line alone. In the absence of Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz, they can still boast two strong lines.

I wouldn’t mind something like a Bunting-Hryckowian-Blackwell third line. Hryckowian is top five on the team in faceoff differential, adjusted for minutes. It has just enough skill and tenacity to provide pop and percussion in equal amounts.

On the topic of depth, Mavrik Bourque has played some of his best hockey lately. It’s also been some of his most snakebit. I suppose the real question is whether or not Bourque is the type of player to be snakebit. His shooting percentage is 10.74, down from 13.75 last season. However, those are totally reasonable shooting percentages, suggesting that perhaps what we see is what we get.

I’d like to push back on this a bit. Since the 2021-2022 season, the average amount of goals for a forward in all situations with at least 500 minutes on the season is 14. Bourque is one goal shy of that average. At even-strength, the average amount of goals for a forward is 10. Bourque is one goal over the average with 11, with twelve more games to play. So yes, it can be frustrating to see him flub some of his chances. But he’s not really underperforming. In some ways, this perception of Bourque as some sort of mediocre finisher speaks to our broad trouble with numbers (think how we talk about goal scorers as “streaky” without ever clarifying what that actually means).

I’d be more worried if he wasn’t getting the chances at all. As Bourque as improved on previous parts of his game, the optimist in me believes that finishing is just one more thing he can get better at. I don’t expect a Valeri Nichushkin-level glow up in this regard. But his game doesn’t worry me right now. All of this made me think of what the lineup should look like when everyone is healthy. I suspect this is your top three (I realize Bunting has done little to earn the benefit of the doubt, but I still think he’ll be fine in the long run with a more talented crew.)

Which leaves the fourth line. Let me hear your thoughts.

Again, just two games. But that’s been the story these last few games, and it certainly was tonight: Oettinger was the best Star.

It certainly wasn’t a bad game by all involved though. Dallas got some chances late, including on the power play late in the game. But Filip Gustavsson was just a brickwall all afternoon. Wyatt Johnston had some prime looks on the power play while Jason Robertson tallied a whopping eight shot attempts at even-strength. Again, not bad; just not enough.

Beyond that there’s not much to say here. Neither team was 100 percent. Dallas, still down Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz while Minnesota is still without Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek. The game really felt like two elite teams with missing pieces. Which means takeaways, be it hot or cold, need not apply.

It doesn’t get any easier for Dallas. They play Vegas tomorrow, then New Jersey, followed by the Islanders, Penguins, Flyers, and Bruins — all within a 10-day window. Some of these are ‘easy’ matchups. But the real test will be Dallas’ endurance.

Jason Robertson with the Guerin dagger

Because Twitter is a cesspool, every now and then I still get sarcastic replies to my old posts criticizing Bill Guerin about not picking Jason Robertson for Team USA. I don’t know if they’re Trocheck and Miller fans, or what, and admittedly I don’t intend to bring up Guerin every time we talk about Robertson, but for now, their fates are intertwined. If it’s Dallas vs. Minnesota in Round 1, you better believe the outcome will include stories about their connection. For now, Guerin is safe from hockey media because he has a gold model thanks to Connor Hellebuyck. However, if Minnesota gets ousted in the first round by the player he snubbed, then all bets are off. Which should be fun. I promise to be a jerk about it. Only for a week. Conversely, I promise not to be a sore loser if Minnesota wins.

Also, this shift is minted. (Yes we’ll get to the other one)

Minnesota counters

I thought Bobby Brink was a great addition, especially for David Jiricek1. He’s small but talented, and ferocious, like a white collar version of Justin Hryckowian. As such, I didn’t find his goal to be a big deal on the goaltending side. Brink scored 35 goals his draft year. His “lack of speed” is the reason he fell to the second round. Sound familiar? Dude’s got moves and Dallas gave him all the time in the world due to a miscommunication. Analyzing plays like that are reminders why the Eye Test is not as helpful as people think. Yes, we can point fingers at various players, like Lian Bichsel’s pinch or Matt Duchene’s backcheck. But facts and truth are not synonymous. Plays like that are only valuable as a piece of film room analysis if they represent patterns. When good teams play good teams, a broken play is not the same as a play that exposes the other.

That overtime goal

Yes, Robertson is absolutely responsible for Tarasenko on that overtime goal. I’ll mount a half-hearted defense and say that the strange hop off Thomas Harley’s stick as Hughes gets it to Brink might have been the cause for Robertson taking the route he does; perhaps thinking it would go out of play. My other defense of Robertson is that all three players simply can’t collapse on one guy. That’s a recipe for disaster no matter who’s left holding the bag. Still, it’s a bad look and I don’t pretend otherwise. Ultimately though, I don’t care for 3-on-3. I didn’t like that a gold medal was decided that way, and I don’t like that I’m expected to analyze a gamestate that will have no bearing on determining the best when the postseason comes around.

Meandering Strays

• One thing that has really developed over time is Mavrik Bourque’s checking. Just to be clear, Bourque has always had a physical edge; not as a proactive hitter but as a player he can comfortably play through contact. He was fantastic along the wall in the AHL.But that comfort hadn’t really translated. At least until now. I suspect the difference — and it’s true of any trait or skill going from juniors into the NHL — is that rather than wait for contact, he’s initiating his own.

• It was strange to see Dallas’ PP get locked out on that four minute stretch. Minnesota has a decent but mostly mid PK.

• Easily the lone forgettable night for DJ Steel. They got matched up with the McCarron-Brink-Foligno line, and for some reason got crushed.

• For those that don’t pay attention to prospects, Dallas signed Justin’s brother Dylan Hryckowian to a two-year deal. He’ll report to the AHL. And yes, Dylan is exactly like his brother. Does that mean the ‘Hryckovi’ will be an NHL tandem? I don’t know. I’ll try to do a quick film room writeup later this week. If he’s able to set the AHL ablaze like his brother, Dylan is perfect for a Colin Blackwell replacement. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He’s got big shoes to fill, starting with Cedar Park.

• While the Wild and the Stars are by no means a lock, it’s mostly a lock. Minnesota is fascinating as a first round opponent. They’re a very different team with Quinn Hughes because he’s Quinn Hughes, and this is the not the same Minnesota Dallas has seen in the past, but I’m trying to figure out if Dallas, Colorado, and Minnesota are potentially the rock/paper/scissors of hockey which is either worrying or reassuring.

And so Wednesday night, despite basically being a 9pm start, delivered and then some. It’s the kind of game we’ve already seen between these two teams, but that doesn’t make them any less interesting. Wyatt Johnston broke the stalemate in the shootout, and now the Stars sit within two points of tying Colorado in the standings. The Avalanche still have a game in hand, but their spot at the top is anything but secure.

I came away from the game of two minds: on the one hand, there were moments of Bowness-era hockey that I didn’t like. You can spin it however you want, but when shot attempts are 63 to 32, the team with less possession hasn’t stumbled on some sort of secret formula. However, I also think there’s something to letting an opponent spin their wheels rope-a-dope style. The Stars can play that type of game all day.

But make no mistake: this was Jake Oettinger’s game. I don’t think it negates my Oettinger article from the other day. Tomorrow (or this morning as of this writing) I’m writing about Oettinger again for D Magazine. One game will not erase nearly a full season’s worth of games. But I don’t think we give the Oettinger discourse the nuance it warrants; something my article tomorrow aims to achieve. He’s a very unique goalie for many different reasons, but we might be able to say with certainty that no matter what happens on the ice, Colorado doesn’t scare Oettinger. He can read them like an open book, which is why he’s closed the chapter on them more than once. While that was the main story, it wasn’t the only one.

Read more

Puck Knowers are more than aware of the Mammoth. Last season they were much better than their record indicated. A lot of models loved them even last year, and some considered them a statistical playoff lock. Dallas was always going to have their hands full. And so they did. But not in the way you would think judging only by the score.

I’ll go ahead and say it, and by all means — at me. I thought this was a really good game. I thought it was a good game by Dallas too! Am I saying that because I didn’t watch the game and only looked at the spreadsheets? I’m not good at much, but growing up on Mountain Dew and the original Quake has forced me to multitask, so I do.

Yes, Dallas had the better goal cake. But unlike scenarios where the casual fan may not be able to intuitively unpack what they’re looking at, I think this is a good example of a very intuitive interpretation.

Yes, the score was 6-3. But think back to those odd-angle shots that went in. And consider the chances Dallas generated that withered randomly on the vine. Or that hilarious penalty kill explosion of offense. Here’s a fun stat for the night: Dallas actually generated more high danger chances (2) on the PK than Utah did on their power play (0). In fact, the Mammoth’s PP was 37 percent in Corsi-For, having been outshot 3 to 5. The Stars almost had the same amount of high danger looks as Utah had total attempts.

I’m not saying that Dallas deserved to win based on the math; just that I think they played the same way they’ve been playing during the streak — pretty damn well. The score spiraled out of control but I didn’t think their play did. Yes, Utah dummied them at times, but good teams can make other good teams look bad (Colorado is experiencing this same concept to Pittsburgh as of this writing). Granted, Dallas’ third-period performances have lagged a bit, even in some of their wins. But Monday night didn’t show me a different team, nor did it feel like the team laid an egg. It felt like a more unfortunate loss than an outright bad one.

Rush for rush

One of the things I talked in my brief preview of this game was seeing how Dallas would deal with Utah’s rush. Historically, going back to last season with Pete DeBoer, the Stars have been poor at defending it. That was the case early in the season as well. While we don’t have recent data to see how much of their turnaround has been affected by it, I suspect old habits die hard. Even the best teams can have flaws, of course, so I’m not saying this is something Dallas should be worried about going into the postseason — only that styles make fights. Utah was more than happy to make Monday night a sprint instead of a marathon.

Faceoffs

I don’t get it. Why do us “analytics guys”1 always get dragged through the mud about whether or not faceoffs matter. Do “analytics guys” say that zone entries don’t matter? Or zone exits? Any hockey play directly or indirectly affecting possession matters. It’s just a question of degree. Part of the reason for advanced stats in the first place is to create clearer language. What even defines a faceoff win, for example? Here’s the faceoff before Utah’s second goal.

“This is why faceoffs are so important.”

You didn’t hear that line, of course, because calling the faceoff crucial to this play would be a challenge, since it’s not terribly clear who wins in the first place. At first I thought Hyry won, and then lost possession. On second glance, it appears Logan Cooley wins it. On third glance, it seems like neither. The puck bounces around with both men locked into the dual and Utah gets the favorable bounce when it appears to carom off the ref’s skate.

This is why I’d like to see distinctions from the NHL data between faceoff wins versus clean faceoff wins. Or perhaps even stats on which teams are good at regaining possession upon losing the faceoff, and how it affects their play in transition, in-zone defense, and breakouts. Again: language. We should be learning more not less. And we certainly shouldn’t be having this discussion reduced to being about one demographic pitted against the other, like chart huggers versus eye testers2.

The blame game

Casey DeSmith definitely let in some “stinkers” but how often do those shots go in to begin with? It’s not like the defense in front of him was picture perfect. I think this game is a perfect example of when the blame game teaches us nothing. Did this game accurately reflect how Dallas tends to defend? Did this game accurately reflect how DeSmith tends to perform? Did this game accurately reflect how goals tend to occur? If the answer to all of the above is no, then there’s no reason to disproportionately assign blame.

Meandering Strays

• If you’ll indulge me for a second. As a former fight analyst of all things boxing and MMA, Lian Bichsel’s fight with Jack McBain was interesting from a mechanics standpoint. As physical as Bichsel is, we haven’t seen him drop the gloves, and when he did, it was against an outmatched opponent. McBain has had more than a few scraps in his career. Needless to say, I was shocked at how violent Bichsel’s punches are. Against a seasoned opponent, he was still able to chamber with some pretty filthy velocity. Like any hockey fighter, he didn’t actually land much (if at all), but I was afraid for McBain if any of those had connected flush. Bichsel was throwing for the ole’ Friday the 13th. Makes me wonder if some of his fitness regime doesn’t involve boxing.

• I didn’t think much of Utah’s shorthanded goal. It was an unlucky bounce that generated another unlucky bounce. That’s hockey for you. It’s nobody’s fault but the hockey gods.

• DJ Steel had a really great night…or they were having a really great night. I wouldn’t worry too much about one iffy night. But Matt Duchene definitely had a bit of brain flatulence trying to sift passes through that weren’t there.

• I promise to stop talking about Arttu Hyry, but I thought that was a slick pass at the end on the Adam Erne goal. Hyry will likely be one of the odd men out when Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz return, but it’s hard to imagine him staying out of the lineup next season.

• Utah rates high as a team that generates on the rush and on the cycle. They are one of the most complete attack teams in the league who can beat you multiple ways when the puck is on their stick. Ignore the standings and make no mistake. The Mammoth are players. No Pacific team is dying to play them.

Whatever your thoughts are of the Stars that night, one thing stood out to me in the Red Wings game: the depth. And no, not in a national broadcast way where they spend 30 minutes analyzing some also-ran’s perfunctory hit or whatever. I mean depth with texture.

Justin Hryckowian, Arttu Hyry, Mavrik Bourque. We’ve gone well past the point of giving them credit for overachieving. They are, at this point, simply achieving. They all bring layers and not just traits to roles that otherwise ask for nothing more than throwing hits and not turning the puck over. Playmaking, forechecking, stick-checking, destruction on the dots — in just seven games, Hyry is a magical +11 on faceoffs per 60 minutes of EV play, which is third among forwards, above Auston Matthews, Phillip Danault, J.T. Miller, and Jordan Staal1 — etc. Sure some goal scoring would be nice, but Dallas doesn’t have a problem scoring goals.

I think it’s part of what explains why the Stars have remained so effective in the absence of Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz. They don’t just have warm bodies in roles out of their depth; they have depth of their own, providing added value in different ways. A good shift doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It has a ripple effect. And Dallas is getting a lot of good ripples.

Harley in the abstract

There’s a different tenor in the discussion about Harley for obvious reasons: he started out in the hurt locker, and now he’s elite again. But I want to focus on a different discussion. Harley is on track to score over 30 points, which will be his career low through a full season. Without a significant role on the power play or the penalty kill, his place on the team would theoretically be at a crossroads. After all, there’s no reason why any of this should change. Miro Heiskanen seems to be doing great under Neil Graham’s system, and it’s not like Lindell’s minutes on the PK are going anywhere.

There’s a good chance you won’t see this kind of status for a $10.6M a year player, anywhere else. The reason I’m bringing this up is because it’s useful for thinking about the runup to Jason Robertson’s fate. Caps change, which means percentages change, and within all of this, so do roles. Roope Hintz was once Dallas’ top center. Not anymore. Does that make him less valuable on the ice? It’s easy to get lost in the contradictions of hierarchy. But when we juxtapose Harley’s performance when Heiskanen was absent last season, or Robertson with the absence of Rantanen this season, it should bring into focus something unique about this Stars team: the difference between a team has players of value versus a team that has surplus value.

Harley may be technically overpaid in proportion to his role, but his on-ice value is irreplaceable, and crucial to Dallas’ turnaround.

The new guy

I hyped up Michael Bunting didn’t I? Maybe. I think everyone more or less understands that the transition is never easy. Nobody expects a point-per-game player either. And certainly not with where Bunting is playing. Nonetheless, even within that context, I felt like Bunting had been a little too quiet. Nobody was going to judge him after just a few games, but still.

Needless to say, it was good to see him fired up on that goal. Yes, Robertson’s pass was absolutely brilliant. But that goal was no tap-in. Bunting had to anticipate that angle and place his stick accordingly. I guarantee you the majority of Dallas’ bottom six would not have capitalized on that Robertson pass; assuming they even got the shot off. Again, small sample sizes and all that. But I do think we can anticipate seeing a much different player once Hintz and Rantanen are back, which is likely where he slots once they return.

15 games, all the scoring chances

The 15-game point streak is impressive. The reason why I don’t dwell too much on stuff like this is that process is always more predictive of what to expect than outcomes. Jake Oettinger has not lost in regulation during their historic stretch, but that doesn’t mean he’s been brilliant, as I’ve discussed.

There are always things that go into a stretch like this and it’s never just one thing. Yes, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston dominating the power play has been huge. Thomas Harley becoming Thomas Harley again has been huge. A lot of things are clicking, but I want to point out scoring chances since January 22 (I’m choosing the 22nd because that’s when the new DJ Steel line was born, and when Duchene became a savage again).

Scoring chances, defined as any shot attempt taken within the homeplate area of the ice, are 361 to 258 in Dallas’ favor. That’s a 58 percent share of scoring chances, which leads the league during that stretch. The Stars are also first in high danger shot share at a whopping 64 percent. It’s one of the reasons why PDO doesn’t even enter into this discussion. Their shooting percentage is 4th since January 22, and their save percentage is 15th. So again: a PDO bender this is not.

Tactically, I don’t think a lot has really changed. We can dig more into the film room later as to why, and what, but for now we can call this turnaround what it is: an awakening.

Previewing tonight

Utah should prove to be a stiffer test than Edmonton (flawed and poor defensively) and Detroit (flawed and poor everywhere except netminding). Except for special teams, they’re a team of good habits in 80 percent of the game, especially with Logan Cooley back.

In fact, Utah might very well be what breaks the playoff formatting — or rather, what causes Gary Bettman and the NHL to consider that developing hockey might actually take effort, and potential changes. Right now the Mammoth are nowhere near catching anyone in the Central. But they could very well finish with more points than the top three teams in the Pacific.

Imagine that. In the first round, we could get two top five teams playing each other (Dallas vs. Minnesota at #2 and #5, respectively), with a wild card team (Utah) facing the Pacific winner without home-ice advantage despite finishing with more points than their Pacific opponent (!).

One of the main things to watch in this matchup is the neutral zone. Utah was the top rush team2 last season, and they remain a very good one this season as well. Conversely, Dallas has been a very weak rush defense team. It’s something they’ve improved on in a big way in recent months; arguably their biggest tactical change. There’s no longer a gap between the forwards and defenders in transition. And a lot Corey’s tracking data tallied these chances early in the season when the Stars didn’t have their heads screwed on straight.

Still, I think that’s what this one a strong test; especially if it’s not a special teams battle. I’m fully ready to call this team a wagon. But I’m every-so skeptical that their neutral zone demons are truly behind them. Glen Gulutzan has had to ditch Pete DeBoer’s defensive scheme entirely. That’s not a small thing, to state the obvious. Don’t be surprised if the Stars shut them down though. Utah also creates a lot on the cycle, and Dallas allows some of the fewest chances off the cycle in the league. Expect a tight and tactical one tonight. This Utah team is built different. But so is their opponent.

Dallas decided not to and ended up just ripping through them like a paper bag. Tristan Jarry was hung out and left to dry, and instead of drawing penalties with skill (Bowman has taken that away year by year), they took a bunch of penalties instead when things didn’t go their way. Wherever Dallas’ season ends up, I think it’s safe to say that they won’t have to worry about the Oilers when all is said and done. Edmonton has enough problems of their own making.

The end result is a team that is no longer just dreaming about catching the Avalanche, but could very well pull it off (although Colorado is up 3-0 after one over the somehow didn’t sell Seattle Kraken, so the five-point gap will likely remain). It will still take a very modest miracle, but it’s no longer out of the question.

It would be great if that would be the end of it. Instead, the physical hijinks that consistently characterizes George Parros’ NHL became front and center. Recall that Brandon Hagel was only fined $5,000 for doing this to Rasmus Dahlin. That’s the same amount as William Nylander for being seen flipping the bird in the pressbox; $5,000 less than what Mikhail Sergachev got for doing the same thing as Nylander directly to the hallway cameraman. So when Trent Frederic got only a minor for throwing gloved punches to Justin Hryckowian, I figured it’d be that kind of night. The fact that even Dave Jackson almost took a stance in protest tells you everything you need to know.

The Department of Player Safety is a joke and everyone except the NHL lanyards knows it. I’ve already rant and raved about it, so I won’t do that here for the sake of my blood pressure. But while Stars fans can walk away and laugh about it — and you should; that picture of Hryckowian is certified epic — how would things have looked if that was Radko Gudas going after Wyatt Johnston instead of Jason Dickinson? Or Sam Bennett on Hryckowian? This isn’t violence. It’s just chaos. The difference is why we have to watch Auston Matthews get his knee taken out. The difference is why Dallas may well have to worry about another Joe Pavelski or Roope Hintz moment. The NHL loves a sore loser I guess.

I don’t mean to be a neghead downer here. That was a legitimately great performance from nearly everyone involved. It’s a performance representing the slow transformation of this group evolving into something far above and beyond the team they were in October through December. But it’s ridiculous for any fans to have to worry about the health of their stars just because this league doesn’t know where to draw the line.

Utter destruction

Dallas has played some great games lately, but the first period of this game was the most dominant Dallas has looked all season. No asterisks. They gave Edmonton zero room to breathe in all three zones. Shot attempts were 18 to 5, giving Dallas an obscene 78 percent of the shot share through the first twenty.

Wyatt Johnston hits 22

Johnston’s 22 goals marks him 8th among PP goal leaders since 2007. That’s above two of Alex Ovechkin’s seasons, and three shy of moving into the top five. However, adjusted for minutes, Johnston is 4th overall since 2007. It’s funny. The phrase ‘power play merchant’ is often used as a pejorative, and yet only the most elite players top these lists. Johnston is in that company.

Jamie Benn

I feel like it’s almost gone completely ignored that Benn is six goals shy of 20. I don’t believe he’s suddenly found that magical elixir. But his game seems a lot more poised than usual. There’s no panic to his playmaking, which is where I always thought he got into trouble the most, and he just seems to be in the perfect headspace. It obviously helps that he’s part of a very very good trio.

Let’s watch that one again

Just insane work by Matt Duchene1.

Meandering Strays

• I think it’s settled. Matt Duchene, Sam Steel, and Jamie Benn have to stay a line no matter what happens.

• Once again, the power play keeps humming. Like I say everytime I say it in this section: a lot of credit goes to Neil Graham here.

• Hryckowian isn’t just becoming a solid addition. He’s arguably a difference maker. When fully healthy, I have to think he’s going to the fourth line, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t.

• Once again, Myers and Bunting just aren’t on the ice enough to give us enough info to evaluate. However, I’m wondering if it’s the transition more than anything. Time will tell.

• The Oilers just don’t look like a serious team right now. They have strong odds of playing Vegas (18 percent), Utah (15 percent), or Anaheim (14 percent). L.A. is a longer shot and even then I might pick any of them to beat the Oilers.

The game was a contradiction of elements: equal parts tepid, physical, fast, then slow, loose but also tight. It’s something I’ve grown accustomed to with all teams due to the compressed schedules. So ultimately, I would call this another quality win for Dallas.

We keep going back to this but it’s worth re-emphasizing: this team’s process has never been more aligned with its results. Remember how this team couldn’t possess the puck early in the season to save its life despite picking up wins, which is what explained that losing streak after the Christmas break? Not only is it gone, but they’ve gone ballistic over the last several games.

How much of that is noise, or that it corresponded with a weak schedule is anyone’s guess. But each game is encouraging for what it says about the sustainability of their point streak. This is not a team merely banking points. They’re simply playing good hockey, looking like an elite team even without some elite players.

For most of the game, it seemed like Dallas had the upper hand. Granted, we’re talking some of the lowest-event hockey probably all year, but outside of some lapses in defensive judgment, Dallas was equipped to deal with Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner, even some truly wretched officiating to throw banana peels on their moo moo meadow tracks.

There’s no rest for the wicked though. The Stars play every other night until the 19th of this month. After that two-day break, they’ll play every other night again starting on the 21st, and don’t get another two-day break until April 5th. The last week of hockey before the postseason is another five-game stretch without more than a day’s break. Expect to see a lot of minutes managed going down the stretch.

Thomas Harley is really back

It’s hard to understate just how how much different Dallas is with Harley back to his old self. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Dallas’ winning streak has coincided with Harley’s bounceback. Does that mean he’s single-handedly fueling it? Of course not. But we’re not talking about just any ole’ top four defender. This is someone who — statistically — posted impacts comparable to a Norris-level defender. Last year I went through the tape to confirm what the stats appeared to show. It’s easy to forget who exactly he’s become after his lackluster start. Who he is when he’s at his best is something special. We’ll see if he can keep it going.

Moar depth

It doesn’t happen every game, but I wonder if it can’t happen every game. Colin Blackwell is prone to some head scratchers, but he’s also prone to legitimate gamebreaking plays. That first goal was willed into existence because of Blackwell’s speed and tenacity. It’s why I hope he stays in the lineup. Not just because of that Colorado overtime goal, but because moments like that second period are moments he has, eventually. The Stars are still a top heavy team. But their depth has pulled its own weight with the absences of several key forwards.

Jake Oettinger needed this one

I’m going to write a more extended analysis on Oettinger later this week because I feel like the discourse has reached the proverbial fever pitch. And a lot of these discussions tend to start in bad faith, as it seems people either take their cues from Oettinger’s pedigree and the Calgary series and ignore everything else, or fans feel like the Calgary series was misleading and Oettinger is overpaid, and ignore everything else. Needless to say, it was good to see Oettinger have a normal game after the Colorado bout. But again, we’ll discuss this in depth later.

Meandering Strays

• I was glad to see Arttu Hyry draw in. One of the reasons why I was “really low” on Justin Hryckowian is that Hyry just seemed like the more NHL-ready product along with his added size. I’ve been happy to admit I was wrong about Hryckowian. I doubt I’ll end up being right about Hyry, who is likely destined for the AHL, but I do believe he has a solid fourth line profile. On a team with less depth, I don’t see why he couldn’t be someone else’s less truculent Joel Kiviranta.

• I know I’ve said this before, but if you want proof that Dallas’ power play is well-coached, then compare Dallas’ current unit to the one under Steve Spott and Pete DeBoer. They kept using Benn on the left flank where his passing was front and center and not only did it not work, it failed the Stars. And then some. The fact that they’re extracting value out of him on the man advantage is a testament to how much coaching matters on special teams.

• Mavrik Bourque has had a really good season, but there’s no question that the playmaking portion of his game needs to be front and center. A lot of the goals he scored in the AHL and juniors were midrange heaters. He has a strong shot. But there’s not much elegance in his puck control, so either that develops, and he starts to become some kind of monster, or it doesn’t, and what we’re seeing is what we get. Hard to complain if this is his ceiling though.

• Once again Tyler Myers and Michael Bunting have been so confined to the background that it’s hard to really notice them — outside of that obvious interference on Bunting by McNabb. It’s nothing something to worry about. But we’ll certainly track their development.

• Just once I’d love to see a telecast go over post-faceoff movement and tactics instead of droning on and on about “this is why faceoffs are important.”

• Four years ago I wrote about Noche Mexicana and why it’s important to people like me. If you haven’t read it, you should! Octavio Sequera on the call is fantastic. Now if only the food could include mex-mex instead of tex-mex…but that’s neither here nor there.

• Is Vegas washed? Or are they just washed without Mark Stone? It’s hard to watch them with any confidence about their long term prospects. In fact, watching them makes it easier to see why a team like Anaheim, who is not that great that has been burning teams like Vegas and Edmonton with fresh legs, has risen to the top in the Pacific. Don’t be surprised if Anaheim and San Jose are back to being two of the top Pacific teams in three years. If it could happen to Buffalo…