2023 NHL Free Agency (Dallas Stars) Report Card: Is It 2016 again?

Dallas got a lot better in an area they were already good at.

The blueline discussion is insanely distracting so let’s scrap that for now. Not only is there an entire article worth writing about in response to Jim Nill’s defense of Ryan Suter, but there are also potential moves that haven’t happened yet.

First thing I’ll say in response to free agency is that it was a good day just by virtue of the moves that weren’t made. Ryan Graves is a decent defenseman. Just not at the $4.5M/6 years Pittsburgh signed him to. Justin Holl is not a decent defenseman. And definitely not at the $3.4M/3 years Detroit signed him to. I don’t care how many smart people Colorado has working for them: that Miles Wood contract is bizarre, but probably less bizarre than their decision to bring back Jack Johnson.

Tristan Jarry at $5M for five, Ryan Reaves fore more than league minimum, whatever Pierre Engvall’s deal is supposed to be for the Isles…there was a lot of bad, but there were also some bangers. Connor Brown’s contract was the best IMO. A league minimum contract paid it in bonuses next year if he’s healthy? Hell yes. I liked Buffalo stacking their right side with Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson: two unheralded defensemen that will fit perfectly as defensemen #4 and #6 to compliment Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power. I also liked Carolina’s moves. Orlov’s contract is a lot, but it’s a win now move on a team that can win now. Throw in Michael Bunting and a healthy Svechnikov back, and they’re the Cup favorites of the East IMO.

As for Dallas, they’re somewhere between one of the day’s biggest winners, and one of the day’s big winners.

Matt Duchene? Holy shit!

I’ve always had a soft spot for Duchene. Fast skaters are like heavy metal for me. I love a good symphony of destruction, and nothing destroys a forecheck like a pair of blades moving faster than can be defended. Duchene is one of the best. He’s also a significant upgrade over Domi, going by the last three years worth of data.

Quick note: If you want to understand the nuance behind these, I recommend reading my tome on analytics 101. I know you probably won’t, but I don’t like posting stats just to post stats, and I must have spent a good two weeks working on that Intro essay.

Data per Evolving-Hockey.

Duchene has never been an elite player, granted. He was a second line center in Colorado who fell out of favor, and then began his journeyman tour. It seemed like he was on his way towards having just a serviceable career until the Predators tried him at right wing two years ago. That’s when he came out of nowhere to score over 40 goals. Yes, it was boosted by an unreal shooting percentage and no, you should not expect him to ever flirt with 80 points ever again, but it is something that speaks to undiscussed topic — veteran development. Why wasn’t Duchene tried at wing before? Or rather, why didn’t a team play him at wing for an extended period of time? Stereotyping is not just for prospects, apparently.

The biggest thing Duchene changes is Dallas’ ability to jailbreak opposing defenses that try to gum up the neutral zone. In a lot of ways, this feels like Dallas specifically trying to target Vegas’ neutral zone forecheck. Like in any heist film, sometimes you need a specialist for the job, and Duchene is that guy; able to crack the neutral zone with ease, and just as critically able to capitalize on the chances he creates.

Data per Corey Sznajder.

At $3M for the year, this might have been the best deal of the offseason (Connor Brown is still, pound for pound, the best deal but Duchene will likely have a bigger impact.)

I do have a nitpick, shared by Dimitri Filipovic: Duchene will likely go next to Marchment and Seguin. Yes, I said the same thing about Domi, and Domi worked out fine, but it’s worth remembering that Domi spent more time with Marchment, Dellandrea, and Pavelski (separate lines) than he did with Marchment and Seguin in the playoffs. Yet as a trio, they were 46 percent in expected goal share in the playoffs. I wish (or hope, rather) that Dallas would experiment with splitting them up.

Does that mean Marchment on the 4th line? Say what you want about Marchment’s contract, but if Marchment-Dellandrea-Smith was Dallas’ fourth line, and they drove play, is that worse than shoehorning Marchment into the top six just because you’re unwilling to admit buyer’s remorse to the effect of dragging play in the top six down? Not saying that’s the answer; just that Duchene gives Dallas a unique flexibility they should be bold in exploring before deciding prima facie that “well we still need a right winger for Seguin” just because they haven’t tried anything else.

Sidenote: I have no idea where this “bad in the locker room” crap comes from. Yes, I remember the Uber controversy in Ottawa too. A bunch of dudes laying out what made their management suck is a rather private moment, but it’s a lot more respectful than management flat out calling two players “fucking horseshit” in the media. Just saying.

Craig Smith: I see you, Jim!

Smith reminds me of a Mike Keane type: more offense in him than you’d think, but is otherwise your talented bottom six lunch pail type. In a common theme for the offseason, Smith is a huge upgrade over Luke Glendening. HUGE.

Data per Evolving-Hockey.

You need players capable of playing roles. You don’t need role players, however. There’s a difference. Glendening’s presence could only be justified by his role as a PKer. Smith’s presence can be justified at even strength, where most of the game is played. Once a reliable 20-goal scorer, he’s declined since, but he still drives play.

Sam Steel: Cool!

I’ve been an amateur draft nerd since 2013. I didn’t like the Riley Tufte pick in 2016. My board at #25 was “please any of the following”: Alex DeBrincat (believe it or not pro scouts are actually human: every draft nerd elsewhere knew how high DeBrincat’s ceiling was and weren’t afraid to bet on it), Rasmus Asplund, Tyler Benson, Jonathan Dahlen, Dillon Dube, Carl Grundstrom, and Vitalii Abramov. Oh: and Sam Steel.

His draft year performance didn’t scream superstar, but he had a huge postseason that year, scoring an incredible 16 points in 12 playoff games with the Regina Pats. Anaheim selected him at 30th overall, and Steel would go on to lead the WHL the following year in scoring. Things didn’t work out in Anaheim. I’d add “not sure why” but I know exactly why: NHL teams are bereft of anything resembling a development plan. From a prospect’s perspective, it probably looks like this: they’ll need me if I’m an elite talent they can’t deny, but since all the babysitting is reserved for veterans who aren’t what they used to, guess I’ll hope for a “change of scenery” if things don’t work out.

Granted, just because I like talking shit about NHL development doesn’t mean they’re always wrong. Steel got his change of scenery in Minnesota, and it went well — he scored a career high in points — but 26 points isn’t exactly earth-shattering, especially when you factor in that he spent a good portion of the regular season next to Karpizov and Zuccarello.

He is, however, a huge upgrade over Kiviranta.

I like this one. A lot. Not just because he was on my radar in the 2016 draft, but because I like depth players who can play up and down the lineup. Steel has solid loose puck speed, and a quick release (along with a nifty backhand) while playing a responsible game. You could argue there’s some “played with Kaprizov and Zuccarello” aftershave in his analytics, it’s worth pointing out that his even strength offense from shift to shift graded out better than Zuc.

Steel will not be a 13th warrior (anyone else like that movie?). Nill has openly talked about bringing him guys who play well against Dallas —he did this with Domi, Sharp, and even Stephen Johns when the Rockford Icehogs eliminated the Texas Stars in the 2015 Calder Cup playoffs — so I suspect he liked what he saw in the Wild series. (Which is amusing since his line with Foligno and Nyquist got absolutely crushed.) Make no mistake. This is not your run-of-the-mill depth move.

Steel also adds to the “let’s make sure every forward can take faceoffs” school of philosophy Dallas seems to be on. Also, not for nothing but if Marchment ever got pushed to the 4th line, I’d like to see Steel-Seguin-Duchene. I really think this are exactly the type of flanks Seguin needs: two players to be his legs so he can focus on the skills he hasn’t lost. Just a thought.

What about Stankoven and Bourque?

I’m always been Team Let the Kids Play. But here’s the thing. Dallas didn’t bring in a bunch of replacement level players like they’ve often done. This isn’t that Lauri Korpikoski bullshit (no offense Lauri). These are all quality forwards who guarantee that DeBoer’s system can be more effectively run. This is Dallas’ big year with Pavelski on his last run, so I’m fine with guaranteed upgrades at every position (again, we’ll talk about the blueline later).

I’m still annoyed by [You Know What] but this was one hell of an offseason for the forward group. I leave you with this. Per Jfresh’s model, Dallas’ playoff roster was good enough for 96 points.

Yes, they ended up with 108. Whatever. Point is, the model scored them at 96 with the caveat that Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, and Ty Dellandrea had no prior data to work with.

How does the team score now?

I forgot to mention: Johnston and Harley (and Dellandrea) still don’t have projected values right now. Still, six more points in the standings would have been good enough for 1st in the West.

Are they?