2024 Playoff Preview: Into the weeds with the Stars vs. Knights
Buckle up.
At last!
Dallas vs. Vegas in what everyone predicts will be something of a bloodbath. That’s more or less my thoughts too. But most critically, as I argued at D Magazine, what better barometer for good fortune than having rivals, and overcoming them?
Everything about the Stars screams Cup Favorite. Jake Oettinger closed out the month in brilliant fashion, posting a .941 save percentage over the last month. Chris Tanev is not only everything a Stars fan could have asked for, but he’s brought out added layers in Esa Lindell’s game even. Even Jason Robertson closed out the year strong after what most considered a somewhat disappointing year. Offense, defense, goaltending, coaching: it’s all come together to create what feels like a juggernaut.
But nothing in hockey’s postseason is guaranteed. The Boston Bruins were the most winningest team in regular season history last year and it still wasn’t enough. How do you think all the superior teams from a couple of years ago that lost to Montreal felt? It’s not just about the upsets. It’s also about the swings. Recall how close Dallas was to going down 3-1 to Calgary in 2020, or for that matter, how close they were to getting swept by Vegas. Great teams are just as easily done in by being put on tilt (read: Edmonton), and this matchup has the ability to put Dallas on tilt.
However, while “anything can happen” (a phrase GMs like to use to swindle fans into thinking that making the playoffs is the same thing as having a great team), not just anyone Wins the Cup. So that’s the question we’ll try to answer: where do the Knights fit into that spectrum, and where do the Stars fit into that spectrum?
The Stars: At a Glance
Let’s look at this and focus on the main takeaways, starting with the positive:
Dallas scores a lot, and they score a lot from a variety of different ways.
They defend extremely well, suppressing chances of all types, including suppressing the passing of other teams.
For the most, none of this is news to Stars fans. Their depth allows them score and attack differently. Roope Hintz’ line is more likely to threaten off the rush while the Wyatt Johnston-Logan Stankoven duo seem to generate more on the cycle (that’s the in-zone shots stat, or shots generated from the forecheck and sustained pressure). What might be news to Stars fans is how well they are with one-timers (not for nothing, but Mavrik Bourque will add to this), which I think is interesting, as Dallas doesn’t have a bunch of Ovechkin-types. Depth and variety are the keystone species of the Stars’ ecosphere.
Defensively, they’re as good as it gets, and I think this should be the final nail in the coffin regarding the “was it defense or goaltending?” question. Dallas was 11th in goals against, but look at how well they defend the forecheck, and particularly opposing team’s passes. Miro Heiskanen’s fingerprints all over the team’s defending, but let’s not undersell the job Thomas Harley has done, who is also a net positive defensively in isolation.
The fact that Dallas’ two best offensive defensemen also shut opponents down is massive, and it’s the single biggest reason why their blueline is good enough to potentially win a Cup. That’s no disrespect to Esa Lindell and Chris Tanev, who really fortify the team’s ability to defend so well, but make no mistake — the team’s top pair fuels it all by wearing multiple hats.
However, team defense doesn’t involve only the blueline, and the defensive work of Dallas’ two offensive stars with Hintz and Jason Robertson are — as we’ve analyzed — a big part of that too. (Pay attention to the last two bars, which refers to their shift-to-shift impact on suppressing shot quality, and shift-to-shift impact on suppressing shot volume.)
There are few teams this well-rounded, and unique in terms of profile. For that reason, the positives come with several exclamation marks.
Now let’s consider the bad:
Dallas is a below average passing team.
They’re inconsistent in transition.
Looking at Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, I find it interesting how modest Dallas is as a passing team. Most of their forwards either assist on scoring chances at a higher than average rate, or capitalize on scoring chances at a higher than average rate, but except for Hintz, Robertson, and Duchene (and oddly enough, Craig Smith), rarely do the twain meet. Corey’s data doesn’t include Logan Stankoven, which is crucial, but we’re talking about one player. Just some hockey minutiae? Maybe.
What’s not minutiae is their transition play. They don’t get out of their zone well, and they concede territory way too easily. They don’t recover dump-ins, and for the most part, they’re somewhat all over the map as a team between zones. However, they do a really good job of turning retrievals into zone exits, which has only gotten better since the arrival of Tanev.
In summation, they’re quirky as a team to shorten the neutral zone, but they’re nuanced when it comes to the meat (offense creation) and potatoes (offense suppression) in a way that makes them an elite squad.
The Knights: At a Glance
Let’s look at this and focus on the main takeaways, starting with the positive:
Vegas is an elite passing team.
Their offense excels in trasition.
The Knights have always been an interesting team to me in that they don’t have a ton of elite players, but boy do they attack in unison. Every line operates in layers, with the bottom six able to create off the cycle, off the wall, or from the point. There’s a deep synergy to the way Vegas attacks, and it makes them unpredictably dangerous. Jack Eichel leads the way, but even players like Chandler Stephenson and Nicholas Roy excel in different areas that their lines seem to follow.
They also attack with speed thanks in part to defenders who can exit with speed like Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, and now Noah Hanifan too. They’re one of the rare teams with an identity they can activate across all trios, and all pairs. So yea: their Cup win was no accident.
Now let’s consider the bad:
Vegas is surprisingly poor at defending the transition.
They’re inconsistent defending the pass.
This should put into perspective why Harley and Heiskanen are so good. The puck moving group of Theodore and Pietrangelo create offense, but have been a lot less effective defensively.
Hanifin didn’t really change that equation, either. However, the Knights have been busted up all year, and even Mark Stone remains a question mark.
In many ways this gives us a bird’s eye view into what Dallas has had so much trouble with Vegas: styles make fights. The one area that Vegas is average to poor in — defending the pass — Dallas doesn’t have the ability to exploit, as they don’t pass particularly well. The other area that the Knights can be exploited — defense in transition — also happens to be an area that the Stars don’t consistently threaten in.
However, let’s tally it all up (along with a final verdict).
Normally I don’t like making essential pieces part of the paid section, but I feel like I’ve covered a lot as is. What follows below is really for the sickos: the people that need to know how Dallas’ shot quality matches up specifically against LA’s shot quality suppressed, who has the edge in rush offense versus rush defense, etc. Yes, that means more JFresh cards, but also more analysis.