(2024 Playoffs, Round 1) Game 2 Stray Observations: Vegas Beat Dallas 3-1
Double welp.
Any room for optimism?
Nope. Dallas is down by two in the first two versus Vegas. As the ESPN booth kept reminding us as if we all had short term memory loss — since 2010, the one seeds down by two in the first two to the eight seeds always lose. And against this Vegas team?
We’ll talk about specific players in the strays, but one thing I want to preface before we start burning Roope Hintz in effigy: it’s hard for players to look their best when the better team is able to execute the best in-game tactics. Of course Hintz doesn’t look fast. Does it look like Cassidy and his squad are giving him space?
(“What about Logan”—yes. And he’s getting a very different matchup. Which we’ll get to.) That’s what makes all of this feel like we can clock Dallas’ early exit with an egg timer. Vegas looks comfortable in their own skin. Dallas, even when they’ve been the “better” team, still look like the team they were last year; with a modest degree of uncertainty, and Vegas can smell it.
Since we’ll focus on the players in the strays, I want to start out with this: I see a lot of fans going hard on the players, but not a word about DeBoer. Why? Keep in mind, this is not my attempt at playing armchair coach, and calling into question every decision because of hindsight — but this is the second time in a row that Dallas has gone into the postseason with a major change.
Last year it was ditching Colin Miller and Nils Lundkvist as part of the postseason lineup, which had a pretty tangible effect on the blueline chemistry with Ryan Suter playing top line minutes. Anything this series? Surprisingly something similar — (yes, the fourth line thing is weird) by giving Lundkvist these insultingly short shifts, the rest of the defenders are forced into chemistries they previously didn’t have. This is a nitpick in the grand scheme of things, but it’s also something that has felt tangible this series, with goals against happening against duos with minimal experience with each other.
Of course, this neglects some of the forward responsibility. Offensive laziness can lead to defensive lapses, and that’s exactly what happened with Vegas’ first goal — really the goal that felt like the dagger. No, Suter nor Thomas Harley played it well, but why was Radek Faksa trying to carry that puck in with possession in the waning minute of a game they had a lead in? (It’s worth pointing out that this was also just a really good play from Ivan Barbashev.)
Jake Oettinger: back again
If there were any concerns about Oettinger, not to mention, whether or not he was actually good or just unlucky in Game 1, then he did as great a job as possible quelling those concerns.
Robertson to Stankoven
It’s worth wondering at one point this will be a thing. At a certain point Dallas will need to ask what is better: three good offensive lines, or one dominant line with one good offensive line, and one x-factor. Whether or not Jason Robertson with Logan Stankoven is it, is a separate issue I guess, but it’s hard not to think about given how often they’ve incidentally connected. Besides, what’s the alternative?
Roope Hintz vs. Jack Eichel
I see Stars fans giving Hintz a hard time. Does he deserve it? Yes. The top center needs to be better. But the difference between Hintz and the other forwards is that Hintz is facing the Eichel matchup — his most common forward opponent — and it’s simply not going well. Two things: 1) Eichel is simply a better player. And 2) Hintz’ speed relies on buildup, and identifying space. If Dallas can’t break out of the zone with speed, which they haven’t because of Vegas’ forecheck, and Vegas is clogging the neutral zone, which Vegas continues to do well, then of course Hintz’ best traits will be muted.
This is not an apologia for Hintz, so much as a respect for the fact that Hintz is one on one with a better player. Rather than lament what Hintz is or is not capable of, I think the onus is on the coaching staff to figure out how to jailbreak that speed. Speaking of:
Let’s talk armchair strategies
Pavelski needs to be demoted, full stop. I know he’s a good story, but last night was the bagillionth time I’ve seen him get puckjacked with zero clue that anybody might catch up to him. Truth is, this has been the case for awhile, but he’s been racking up points, so no one cared.
Dallas should. It’s a critical piece of why the top line can’t attack with speed.
Also, while Mavrik Bourque won’t get called up, he totally should. (But they won’t and I get it.)
The Vegas perspective
This speaks for itself. If you’re Vegas, you’ve never felt better. You didn’t even get the matchups you asked for, but you’re winning them. DeBoer seems to have no answer for Cassidy’s defensive system, and the one flaw that can be exploited — chances off the rush — Dallas doesn’t excel at (that’s right: for all the hooting and hollering over Dallas’ ability to shoot off the rush, they’ve never generated chances at a high rate, and it’s one of the things we’ve talked about here as a potential “regression”).
lol Changed the title. How I let that one through is beyond me.
Re: your last stray thought, one thing I think didn't get talked about enough after game 1 was that all Dallas's goals came off the rush, which you're pointed out they don't really excel at. (Eye test alert) From what I can tell, they haven't been able to get through and generate much off the cycle so far. It also seems like they preferred to pass on their odd man rush opportunities in game 2 and either held too long and took a bad angle shot, or tried to force the pass and it got broken up.
I feel like Pavelski's really struggled so far too. He's been iffy all year, but against Vegas it seems like he's always just a bit slow to react. Either the puck is just out of reach, or it gets taken off his stick before he's able to make a play with it. Not the only player this is happening to, but the most noticeable for me. I wonder if separating him and Hintz will help Hintz get better opportunities.
Lastly, Dadonov's just not working. I think you were spot on at the beginning of the year about the Stars not needing to re-sign him and now they're in an awkward position where he's "too good" to scratch (I disagree! I think he's still recovering/getting back to game speed) but has no one complementary to play with because the top 9 is basically set. He's positive on xG, but losing on Corsi and I don't think there's any reason to think this this is a line that can consistently produce higher danger chances than they give up. Not the biggest issue, since it's just 10 minutes a night, but when the bounces aren't going your way it doesn't help to shorten the game by half a period.