(2024 Playoffs, Round 3) Game 3 Stray Observations: Dallas beats Edmonton 5-3

Dallas now holds the lead.

Talk about a barnburner.

Up to this point, this series has really felt like a gentlemen’s agreement. Everyone has played in accordance with the systems, making sure not to violate section 45.23, addendum code B4. The games have been good. But it’s felt like a by-the-book dynamic between two great teams. Certainly nothing like the Florida-New York series. Or really much of any series thus far.

At last, on Monday night, both teams decided to exchange volitions of will. There was really no way to sugarcoat that first period by Dallas. They lost foot races, they lost board battles, and they lost the breaks. It was the kind of period that in any other context would be something of an omen; foreboding the outcome of the game and possibly even the series. It wasn’t really about the shot counter either. The NHL does a notoriously poor job of tallying shots. Granted, they do a poor job over lots of things but still — the offensive zone time, and even just the body language. The blueline looked like it was reaching for every puck, and every forward seemed out of sync. And then…

The second period happened. It was a great counterpunch by Dallas, worthy of the Undertaker meme, but it was also just a good period of hockey in general, with tactical exploits, goals, and hits galore. It was the period that didn’t just pull them out of a first-period hell; it’s a period that has now tilted the series.

If you’re Dallas, you’re confident that you still got a win even with Edmonton getting their matchups. But it’s definitely not over. The Oilers proved why they were such a good home team, but Dallas also proved why it wasn’t enough.

However, I don’t think this game fit into any broader narrative. It really could have gone either way, at least in my estimation. And that brings us to the strays.

Jason Robertson’s “struggles”

One reason why I’d call it “important” to normalize analytics is — if nothing else — that we can eliminate cheap and easy narratives. If struggling = not scoring, then we’re talking different languages. Just to be clear, that’s not to say Robertson wasn’t worthy of criticism. And that’s not even to downplay his primary role on this team; which is yes, to score goals. But if you want to know what a player struggling looks like, then look at Darnell Nurse.

What this “not scoring = struggling” narrative does is it de-frames the magnificent defensive work Robertson has worked all year to achieve. It’s something that has been prevalent in every round of these playoffs. And it’s something he deserves to be praised for. I was glad to see Pete DeBoer respond to that question the right way, which was more or less “He is?”

My point in this long-winded diatribe? Simple. You can simply say that Robertson is “struggling to score.” Look how easy it was to just use all the appropriate words. The best news for him and Dallas is that he didn’t struggle to score tonight, and his defensive work that has been paying off all year was also evident.

Roope Hintz returns

Hintz had a two-point night, which seemed to go under the radar. He didn’t really look like himself in the first period, but he hasn’t really looked like himself even when he was healthy. Thankfully, he also didn’t look invisible either once the first period ended. In point of fact, he made some excellent plays in all three zones. It’s too early to say for sure what version of Hintz we’re getting, but so far, I’d say Dallas is getting a good player. As in; nothing to complain about so far.

Blue(line) magic

Something I’ve noticed all year with Dallas is that they hold the blueline in the opponent’s zone extremely well. It reads like not just a group of players who happen to be good at making those reads, but like a team that has been taught well what to watch for. Any lazy clear or bad pass almost always gets gobbled up, and it’s evident even on the power play. Yes, Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci (reunited for god knows why) certainly made things easier. But this stuff feels like a systems thing, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team be so effective at it.

The underrated

I figured I’d give a shoutout to a few players who stood out to me that probably won’t be talked about anywhere else:

• Sam Steel. I felt like he had a solid game from first to his last shift. He was noticeably quicker than Edmonton’s defenders on certain shifts, and did a really great job of cutting back after his entries. He hasn’t really been an unsung hero because Stars fans know what’s up, but he stood out tonight.

• Ryan Suter. He did not have a good game. In fact, it looked like Suter and Alex Petrovic might be the story of the night for a minute there, with Suter being on the ice for the first goal, and Petrovic taking a penalty on McDavid only minutes later. But while he didn’t have a good game tonight, he’s been extremely solid throughout these playoffs. For a stretch, especially last year, it really looked like his game had already fallen off the cliff, but it looks like he stole Joe Pavelski’s Father Time Defying Sauce.

• Mason Marchment. Marchment could have easily had one tonight. The story for him will be the embellishment call, and I don’t want to talk about officiating because we know how this works — officials don’t want to decide the game, so their inaction helps decide the game anyway. It’s a contradiction the NHL doesn’t care to reckon with but whatever. My point is that Edmonton has appeared to be have real trouble defending him along the walls, and it’s made for a janky effectiveness that is nonetheless…effective (!).

• Wyatt Johnston. Okay so everybody talks about him, but there’s a parallel universe where it’s Johnston with the hat trick instead of Robertson. He had a ton of quality looks with pristine positioning, even if he didn’t necessarily always get a shot off. It’s absolutely incredible what he’s doing, and it can’t be stated enough.

Edmonton’s perspective

I don’t know how you’re feeling if you’re Edmonton. On the one hand, that first period was blistering. And the Oilers were getting the matchups. But all it took was a few breakdowns, and poof: 2-1 Dallas for the series lead.

One thing you want to consider is de-pairing Nurse and Ceci. They’re awful. Oilers’ beat writers have written about this, Ceci’s numbers are beyond atrocious, and all because, as Elliotte Friedman reported, Ceci is “good in the room.” (In response to not trading him at the deadline for an upgrade at his position) Of course, the biggest issue is that Nurse is also bad, but 1) Nurse’s contract is never going anywhere and 2) I think Nurse would be just fine with a partner that gave him less work to do. (I’ll defend elements of his transition game.)

So Knoblauch can make a few adjustments. I’d still argue that Connor Brown deserves to play with McDavid. He’s created a lot despite being stuck on the fourth line, and looks fully healthy. Zach Hymen has been a handful for Dallas’ defenders, so he’s the guy you move down that way the Stars have to deal with two good lines instead of one. You also put Rayn McCleod back in because WTF makes Carrick or Ryan upgrades? It was crazy to me that McCleod was scratched for Henrique, as if that were the only choice.

I realize I’m writing about Edmonton way too much, but this is still a team that hasn’t seen their last adjustment. We’ll see in Game 4 if it’s enough.

(And yes. I’m working on explainer cards for every graph I post here. I was really happy to see that people wanted it. I’ve worked pretty hard in the past to unpack them, as I did at Defending Big D, but I realize the new site cutting out the pictures probably makes that a difficult read. Nonetheless, posting the xG Worm for aesthetics and nothing more.)