2025-2026 Report Card: Tyler Seguin and the season that never really was (again).

Reviewing another incomplete Seguin season.

Slow season is upon us; just not here. I’ll have a report card for every Dallas player going through August. As always, consider upgrading to paid subscriber since some of these will be behind a paywall. And if not, you’re still the best!

One-sentence summary

Will the hockey gods finally be just?

A few good stats

• Cap: $9.85M (Year 7 of 8)

• GP: 27

• Goals: 7

• Assists: 10

• Points: 17

• Postseason: N/A

• xSPAR: .7 extra points in the standings

Not sure how to read these? Click here for a casual fan’s guide!

Because we had such a limited sample size this year, I decided to cheat a little on this one and include his last three years. This year, like the rest, shows that Seguin still has the juice with the puck. I’m always outright amazed that he still has such a strong impact on offense — both on active goal scoring and expected goal scoring — despite losing one of his key offensive weapons: his speed.

Thematically-appropriate highlight

Why not all seven? But dude. That Seattle goal. It’s kind of wild to see so many of these goals out in the open like vintage Seguin. Granted, it’s clear he’s not as fast as he used to be, and the NHL Edge data confirms this (going from the 60+ percentile in the 2021-2022 season to below 50th). But I get the impression that Seguin has evolved with the injuries, adjusted his positioning and timing, and that’s why he can still pull off the plays that his legs should otherwise prevent.

Grade: A (very unfortunate) Incomplete

Talk about a comedy of a tragedy of errors. Twice now he’s missed most of the season. The kick in the nards is that in both those 20+ game cameos, he was super productive. In 2025, he was inexplicably on pace for 86 points. No, he never would have reached that, but being on pace for 52 points this year is still solid, and certainly would have been much-needed in the postseason. A torn ACL injury was the culprit this time, and while he’s spoken publicly about being ready, no official timetable has been set (outside of Seguin giving us his own timetable of being ready for training camp).

In his fleeting presence this past season, we saw Seguin sort of juggled up and down the lineup. He played minutes with Mavrik Bourque, Sam Steel, Wyatt Johnston, and eventually settled into a consistent role next to Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz.

I want to talk briefly about that line because it’s the line I predict will start the year assuming Seguin is ready. It’s a line with a little bit of history and a lot of juice. In their 117 minutes together in November, Dallas outshot opponents 60-44 and outscored them 11-2. That’s a serious wallop. Seguin on that line instead of Bourque didn’t have the gaudy possession numbers that Bourque with the aforementioned duo had, but those are still more than serviceable. If he can stay healthy-ish — or at minimum, avoid an abject body disaster — then Bourque’s loss can be mitigated. Again: the many different meanings of “running it back.”

So how does Seguin keep doing it despite playing on one leg and no ligaments? He can no longer create on his own, likely owing to the slowed footspeed. But he’s still solid in transition, even better as a puck support forward¹, and his shot hasn’t left him.

Visual and data courtesy of Louis Boulet. Click here for a glossary of Boulet’s SPAR model. For more on understanding transition data courtesy of Corey Sznajder, click here.

In an ideal world, we can say that Seguin’s injury demons are behind him, and he has one great fight left in him. However, there comes a point where freak injuries are the forest and not the trees. In hockey, it doesn’t take much to trigger an injury. But it takes even less to trigger an injury on an already-withers. I suspect he’ll avoid a worst-case scenario, but avoiding another injury altogether seems unlikely at this point in his career.

What this means for Seguin’s future is hard to say. The good news is that there’s a warm seat for him as long as he stays healthy. The Stars absolutely need to mitigate Bourque’s loss, and Seguin helps them do that, even if he brings a very different look to the line. But how much does that dynamic change if the Stars want him in more modest minutes? What if modest minutes are the only way for Seguin to remain effective? Can Dallas even count on getting back the player he was even this season for those 27 games? Seguin’s role serves as an inflection point for whether or not the Stars can finally settle on chemistries they can build on rather than waffle over. Seguin’s presence is pure boom/bust for the team’s efficiencies. He’ll either come back, completely healthy, and be a major asset as a 40-50 point winger. Or he’ll be another forward playing an outside role. The former will require the cooperation of Seguin’s ligaments, but still.

Seguin is certainly not the key to Dallas’ depth issues. Or is he? Like a less dramatic version of Jamie Benn, there’s still goals and assists that he can provide. The main thing here is not that Seguin have a productive year, but that he can play reasonable minutes and replace Bourque’s production. At that point it’s then a matter of whether or not the Stars can maximize their other lines. Suddenly some dominos start to fall in Dallas’ favor, however imperfect. I don’t think it’s a long shot that this actually happens. The question is whether or not it’s a long shot that works out in the middle of a deep playoff run. There are only two people who can answer that: Seguin, and whatever hockey god he pissed off in another life.

1. The second category (Importance to teammate offense) is measured a little like with or without you stats, seeing how much offense is left on the table when Seguin is away from his teammates.