Another 32 Thoughts: The Dallas Stars Holiday Season Edition
Unfiltered thoughts about the Stars for the first almost-half of the 22-23' season: all 32 of them.
The Dallas Stars are quietly trending down after getting their chops busted up pretty good by the Edmonton Oilers in a 6-3 loss. I wouldn’t read too much into it. Jake Oettinger and Miro Heiskanen had some uncharacteristically bad games. Miro had two bad giveaways, and Oettinger saved two goals below expected (GSAx) last night. That won’t happen often, nevermind on the same night. Still, take away the loser point, and the Stars are 5-5 in their last 10. It looks bad, but look at the teams they lost to: Carolina, Toronto, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. They’re still first in the Central.
However, there are definitely elements of Dallas’ game that are looking like a mirage. We’ll get to them. For now I just want to give you dear readers a quick update on the ‘Status of the Stack.’ Skip the following italics section if you’re just here for an exhaustive list of hockey observations.
My apologies for being absent around here. I know I don’t need to apologize for not being extremely online enough, but I care about people that take the time to read my work. I’ve mentioned this before, but I have some really dumbass dreams about writing meaningful science fiction. However, I’ve been fooling myself into thinking I can get away with knowing nothing about the market, what literary agents are looking for, and what’s ‘en vogue’ in the genre. For that reason, I’m been doing a lot of reading, and a lot of non-hockey writing. I will, however, never stop stopping. On to the stray bullets…
Dallas is not the best team in the Central.
I know. And I know. A sense of optimism and knowledge of where they currently stand are not on my checklist. But who are we kidding? Colorado is still the team to beat. They’ve been without MacKinnon, Landeskog, Byram, now Manson, and previously without Nichushkin too. Yet they’re still 8th in shot attempt share, and 14th in expected goal share. They’re also gonna be in what projects to be one of the best trade deadlines in years thanks to Chicago’s exiting core (Toews and Kane), teams having a yard sale for Bedard (San Jose, Anaheim, Arizona, etc) and teams suddenly bursting into flames (Vancouver, Washington).
But they might be the second best team in the West.
That covers a lot of teams so let’s go through them. Winnipeg? Insert the wrong answer sound effect — along with all the evidence showing that they’re a weak possession team, and a weak defensive team propped up entirely by brilliant goaltending (doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be taken seriously; they’ve been without Ehlers the entire time-when healthy, their top six is as good as it gets). Minnesota? Good depth; weak core. Los Angeles? lol. Vegas? I do kind of fear them. They’re well-coached with good depth up and down the lineup, strong goaltending, and top 5 in expected goal share. And yet they’re 21st in shooting percentage, which is kind of scary. You know what doesn’t scare me? Not having a single player in top 50 scoring. Great playoff teams have great players (St. Louis notwithstanding). Vegas has none. Dallas has a few. Just saying.
Dallas will bank some points this month because it’s a paved road, schedule-wise.
Columbus, Edmonton, Montreal, Nashville, Minnesota, San Jose: not exactly a murderer’s row. It doesn’t count until they win, but there’s no reason why Dallas shouldn’t blitz CBJ’s goaltending, MTL’s defense, or shutdown SJS, MIN, and NSH’s anemic offenses. Edmonton is one of those coin flips: either McDavid beats your team, or your team beats everyone beyond McDavid.
Update: Man was I way off about CBJ and EDM. As you can see, I got started on this list awhile back.
Jason Robertson will be fine. Because he’s great. (Obviously)
Despite a three-point night against Carolina, Robertson has been mostly quiet. I don’t believe fans are genuinely worried, but I think they’re used to thinking of production and performance as one in the same. And Robertson has the two married just fine. Just check out his Game Score.
Game Score is a unique stat that is better served for forwards than defensemen, so as always, if you need a refresher, read my refresher.
Robertson is a counterpoint to the “streaky” scorer because his offense is also residual. An elite shooter, an elite passer, it’s almost like the hockey gods had to nerf his skating otherwise he’d be OP. The other thing I find so intriguing about Robertson is the grit he puts into his offense. His offense is not always designed through his shot or his vision, but in the mortal combat of engagement. He wins footraces. He wins positioning battles. He wins control of the puck. For him, hard work is smart work. (Sadly, I’m lifting this expression from one of those self-help bozos that corporate teams love to overpay in order to boost morale) But it helps that he does smart work too.
Jason Robertson’s defense, on the other hand — you know what? Who gives a shit
If you look at at Robertson’s expected goal share against, the picture is less rosy. But that’s according to Game Score. His defensive numbers according to HockeyViz and Evolving-Hockey’s RAPM look solid. As mentioned, Game Score is really just a high-level counting stat, and I mean that as a compliment. Still, I think we can use our heads (no not our eyes — our eyes don’t see shit) on this one. Robertson is not perfect. He has a tendency to turn the puck over in the defensive zone when trying to exit the zone. It’s the only area of his game that I think you can confidently say is hurt by his lack of first-step speed. But again, who cares? Defense is obviously important. I don’t want to downplay that. But Robertson is a weapon. You wield it. You don’t sheath it. Let others be his shield.
Denis Gurianov; I wish you nothing but good fortune, brother!
That’s all I’m here to offer. No speculation or disrespect of his boundaries. I wish him well.
Super extrapolatory (?) Riley Tufte thoughts.
I hated sparring tall guys in Jiu Jitsu; which isn’t saying anything since I’m goblin-sized. Longer limbs means obnoxiously tighter chokes. However, if sparring started on the feet, I felt like the badass I am certifiably not. Being short meant I was harder to take down. And I was. Different sizes have different challenges; a phenomenon lost on insecure hockey men who think bigger and stronger means more efficient. Does Logan Stankoven look like a dude that’s gonna lose a lot of puck battles just because he’s short? No. Tufte, on the other hand, looks like he’s gonna lose a few. He’s absolutely massive in a way that threatens his balance. In his first game, he was knocked off the puck quite easily. BUT…I loved his persistence. He played like a winger wanting a full-time gig.
Update: Tufte played six minutes against Edmonton and was on the ice for one shot attempt, and eight shot attempts against. Nevermind…(for now)
RW is not the problem on the Seguin line.
This is what bothers me about all the “RW” talk. Gurianov and Faksa aren’t the problems. The problem is that Seguin’s lines don’t drive play. Marchment-Seguin-Gury = 48 xGF%. Marchment-Seguin-Dellandrea = 46 xGF%. Yea Brock Boeser is a good goal-scorer, but Seguin’s line doesn’t need a goal-scorer. It needs somebody to carry that line. Boeser ain’t that.
RW to Carry the Seguin Line: Thy Name is Connor Brown
Crap. He tore his ACL and is out for the season. (Although if he’s expected to be back by the playoffs, I could see this being Dallas’ reverse Zuccarello.)
RW to Carry the Seguin Line: Thy Name is Garnet…Hathaway?
Don’t laugh. I thought the same thing. He’s 31, only broken 20 points once, and seems more likely to end up on a hockey fight reel. And yet…
Holy shit!
Granted, Hathaway is not the answer. But he’s conceptually perfect for the Seguin line: someone who can generate possession, tilt control of the ice, and allow Seguin to focus on offense. That’s the winger Dallas needs: an Arturi Lehkonen type. Not a Kessel type. Granted, Hathaway is Lehkonen without the production. But still. He’s super cheap at $1.5M.
Sean was right about Ryan Suter. Sort of.
By “sort of” I just mean Suter is not just a struggling defender. He’s an outright harmful one. There’s very little he does well and he does it in the second most minutes of any defender (minutes that are thankfully waning).
These microstats were taken from last year, meaning that offense that used to be worthwhile has gone.
I’m not here to bash Suter, though. In some ways I think Suter’s harshest critics are as right as his defenders say he isn’t, and in some ways Suter’s most vocal defenders are as right as his critics say he isn’t. What’s happened, IMO, is that Suter has just hit a wall. A lot of his issues, unlike last year, seem connected to his physicality or lackthereof. He’s looser with the puck, slower on the backcheck, can’t win board battles, etc. These are things that weren’t that apparent even last year. It’s no one’s fault. It’s just his birthright. Sean is right about Suter being here to stay. But not before next season. His contract is buyout friendly, Harley needs a shot, and hey…if Nill could do it for Nichushkin, why not Suter?
What’s the matter? You don’t have similar things to say about Jani Hakanpaa just because he’s a dreamboat?
Dreamboat? Do you want to share some chicken a la king over a new episode of Popeye? Damn (!) how old are you?
So anyway. Yes. That’s a fair point. There’s Hakanpaa on the bottom left.
Neither of the regular pairs involving Hakanpaa have worked (either with Lindell, or Suter). They’re all below 50 percent in expected goal share.
The Stars miss John Klingberg. Indirectly.
I think we’re finally starting feel the absence of Klingberg. Maybe not Klingberg specifically, but definitely the lack of an impact player. Say what you want about Klingberg, but opposing teams had to prepare for him, and gameplan against him. I do sometimes wonder what small percentage of mistakes an impact player makes come not from questionable decision-making, but opposing team set plays and planned lines of attack. Klingberg had that gravity. Outside of Heiskanen, nobody has that ability to take over a game by themselves. Just saying.
Dallas needs a defenseman, but they won’t be trading for one anytime soon.
As much as I feel like the blueline is in most need of fixing, all of Dallas’ blueliners are on committed contracts that take them past this year. I think the organization sees Lundkvist as the player they needed, even if he’s not the impact player they need here and now to truly contend. Which is fine. I love Lundkvist. But this is the tight rope that all contending teams face. You can be just as punished for being too quick as too patient.
Thomas Harley: trade chip or future savior?
Future savior. Harley will be the perfect replacement for Suter. Yes, he profiles like a totally different player, but he’s also someone who projects to look very good in DeBoer’s rush-oriented system. That’s Harley’s specialty. In fact, Harley’s specialty is more diverse than he’s given credit for. His microstats from last year are kind of insane:
I can see how superficially he could be a trade chip: unless Suter is bought out, there’s no room for him in the immediate future. If they’re contending now, why not trade him for a player who can help them win now? Thing is, Harley isn’t just some guy they want playing sheltered minutes. I think they see him as Lindell’s replacement. How good does a Heiskanen-Lundkvist/Harley-Bichsel top four sound? I’d argue: quite. And yes, Bichsel has a lot of experience playing weakside. (I know. This was the crux of my crusade to get Miro back on his strongside. I’d argue that being on your strongside is better for offensive defensemen who can make quicker passes. It’s probably not a coincidence that players who have excelled on their weakside have been more defensive in nature, like Hjalmarsson and Brodie. And of course…Miro himself saw defensive improvements on his strongside — although it’s worth asking how much playing next to Polak affected his defensive metrics.)
Speaking of Texas, is Marian Studenic next?
I think so. Studenic has nine points in his last eight games, including three multi-point games in his last four. He didn’t show much in his brief appearance last year, but he didn’t not show much…
One of the things the Stars don’t have much of, and haven’t had much of for a long time now—speed. I wasn’t impressed with Studenic outside of his speed (recall: Janmark had speed…and he didn’t do him much good; well, until last night because of course) but he probably deserved a spot out of camp if we’re going strictly by performance. I’d like to see it personally. He’s earned it.
Yes, Logan Stankoven was ready this year. But hockey gods forbid teams try to gamble on talent instead of mediocrity.
I don’t want to linger on this one for too long. I watch camp, and preseason too. And yes, I saw him hit something of a wall as preseason wore on, but he also didn’t play with anyone of note down the final stretch. I don’t know why this goes unmentioned. There are few things that can more tangibly affect a player’s performance than the quality of their teammates. Notice how different Dellandrea looks next to Faksa and Glendening than Johnston and Benn. I’m not advocating for rushing development. Just pointing out that teams usually don’t have to feel the dark side of the development moon if they surround them with good players. Especially when it’s quite clear that Stankoven (on pace for 126 points) isn’t being challenged in the CHL.
Brief Development Rant Below [Skip as Needed]
I’ve already said what I want to say about NHL development. But I want to add to my thoughts above. Part of why the NHL is “not a development league” is because they spend most of their time outsourcing it to others. Struggling? Send him down to the A. Need to pick up a skill? Send him down to the A. Need to learn more defense? Send him down to the A. Made a mistake? Have some chicken fingers in the press box. Etc. Obviously, NHL teams have skills coaches. But by letting others develop team prospects, NHL teams de-velop (ho, ho) how to work with impressionable players and start to lose sight of what young players need. I get why NHL coaches take this approach: their jobs depend on performance here and now; not maybe later. I don’t get why organizations can’t have universally-agreed upon protocol for development, or why they’re so often not on the same page. The kids have the excuse of youth. What’s your excuse, NHL?
Speaking of prospect watch: Lian Bichsel goes to the World Juniors!
Bichsel has had an odd year, to say the least. Rather than wrap it up, here’s JK with a pretty bow on his story thus far. I’m looking forward to seeing him represent Swizterland, in part because he’s what Dallas needs if he can reach his ceiling: a modern day defensive defenseman who can skate with modern forward talent. It should also prove to be a nice reset for him. There’s nothing wrong with a slow post-draft year. Remember how many people wanted to write off Matt Boldy for his D+1? Bichsel wasn’t chosen for his offense. Hopefully defending against his best peers will prompt a next step. It’ll be awhile before we see him in victory green but I’m excited.
Nils Lundkvist keeps getting better.
I made the comment on Twitter; how Lundkvist is looking more comfortable with the puck. I don’t know if it’s just a player growing more comfortable or if playing with Miro makes everything easier (it’s obviously both), but he’s starting to make plays with the puck that he wasn’t earlier in the season. Recall that he dumps the puck out way more than you’d think; and as I wrote at D, I believed then that it was a sign of his maturity. I still believe that, but I also believe he’s finally starting to weaponize that maturity.
Keep in mind, those defensive numbers will change with more time spent next to Miro. A lot of his early run was with Suter.
Speaking of Lundkvist; don’t look now but he’s keeping up with the Calder Jones’ (well, on defense at least)
The Calder is basically Matty Beniers’ to lose at this point (just kidding: Arizona’s Matias Maccelli is right there with him but you know that already because EVERYONE pays attention to Arizona, right?). Still, I was surprised to see Lundkvist tied with Owen Power (what a pick by Montreal with Guhle; so glad Toronto didn’t take him). Six points behind the defensemen rookie leader isn’t the widest gap to close, especially given Nil’s current partner. Don’t be surprised if Lundkvist ends up having his Klingberg for Calder moment.
Some disconnected thoughts about Wyatt Johnston, and why he’s so important.
I’ve been a fan of Wyatt for some time, which is why you get hints, and (sometimes) deluges of I Told You So tones in my Tweets. I’m not here for post-hoc analysis, and I’m not here to tell you what already know. I’m here so that you and I can share in the discovery of things. Whatever Wyatt’s future holds, it’s only gonna get better. Hell, he’s already proving himself to be the glue holding his line together.
He’s starting to hit a bad patch, but Dellandrea will be fine.
Dellandrea was the biggest revelation to start the season. Not only did most fans have low expectations based on where he was picked, and the stilted display he showed in his first season, but there’s a universe where they don’t have room for him. So far he’s shown an offensive touch, and Busts His Ass Off style defending. What more could you ask for? How about less penalties? To his credit, he draws more penalties than anyone. My theory on that is players like Ty don’t draw penalties without playing with that edge. Sometimes that edge means taking penalties of their own. Am I making excuses? No. I just think there’s a loose connection there. I’ll take madness over mediocrity, thank you very much.
Pete DeBoer knows how to extend leads; thank the hockey lords (part 1)!
I’ve talked a lot about why this is important; why it’s essential to playing defense in some ways. It’s not just because scoring is fun, but because scoring is more readily available. Now only are leads more vulnerable than ever, but even home ice advantage is starting to lose its strategic luster. However, Dallas gets exposed when leading by a goal. It’s worth noting that DeBoer might be a little overeager to extend leads, as Miro, Suter, Miller, and Lundkvist are the defenders most used when up by a goal instead of Lindell and Hakanpaa.
Pete DeBoer knows how to leverage his players; thank the hockey lords (part 1)!
Remember when the checking line was used exclusively to hold the lead, and nobody was weaponized for late ties? Coaching matters.
Not everything is rainbow greetings and gumdrop smiles under PeBoer.
One of the odd constants throughout the year has been Dallas’ inability to defend the crease. The high danger shot attempts they’ve allowed has steadily increased throughout the year, and per MoneyPuck they’re currently 28th (!) in rebound goals against at even strength. That’s kind of a big deal.
In case that last point needs extra emphasis; failing to protect the crease has been something of a playoff success marker.
It’s true. From Friedman:
After last season, I had a lengthy conversation with Steve Valiquette, the former goalie who works on the Rangers’ broadcasts and is the CEO of Clear Sight Analytics. Like others who try to build strong predictive models, he is constantly searching for the right ingredient or statistic to create that “Eureka!” moment. After Tampa Bay won the 2020 Stanley Cup, he’d zeroed in on something.
“For a few years, I thought the surest predictor of winning was goaltending,” he said Sunday. “Then I was looking at differentials, such as expected goals for and against.”
It wasn’t predictive enough for him — until he zeroed in on high-danger goals against at five-on-five/60 minutes.
Oettinger and Wedgewood are doing their part, for what it’s worth.
As I’ve said before. It’s easy to point at the scoreboard and blame goals on a “bad night” but Oettinger and Wedgwood haven’t been much of a problem in the aggregate. Per Evolving-Hockey, Oettinger is a +11 in goals above expected, and Wedgewood is +2.
Jim Nill’s work is not done.
Fine. So I lied. Nill has accomplished the hardest part; developing an elite core. The real task ahead is managing within the margins. It’s easy to downplay the roles of players in modest minutes and demand more from players with more; harder to find players who can play beyond those roles and quietly elevate the team.
Forward line predictions for 2023.
Robertson - Hintz - Pavelski
Benn - Johnston - Marchment
Studenic - Seguin - Dellandrea
Kiviranta - Faksa - Glendening
Seems like the second line is starting to develop some real chops. I doubt DeBoer is genuinely satisfied with Kiviranta next to Seguin, and Dellandrea in no man’s land. Seguin needs two players who can be his legs. It’s not the most exciting lineup, but I think the key is developing a proper second line so that the other two are on ‘custodial’ duties.
The solution doesn’t have to come from outside.
That’s my topic for next week’s piece at D Magazine, so I won’t spoil it here.
Don’t forget to join your fellow Stars fans (or not) on my Discord server!
I know layfans might not care about the Twitter drama, but for writers, it’s a big deal. Especially where local content is concerned. Where else is my small-fried Texas hockey work gonna echo into a media chamber with large audiences that otherwise wouldn’t be possible? I’m not going anywhere, but I also just enjoy Discord on its own. I’ve neglected it a bit (except for the MMA and books forum; I know…I like smart and dumbs things in equal measures) but I’m gonna start posting exclusive content in there (what kind of content I’m not sure, but I might start with podcasty-type material where you can join me in the voice channel for meandering reflections). Keep in mind, there’s a forum for everyone, so if you’re shy, start a convo in a forum nobody’s in. I’ll join you I promise!
Loved this article. Great insights and a lovely writing style. Can't wait to read your sci-fi!
Good stuff here man