Breakfast Salvos: Patrick Kane Rumors, Dallas vs. Philly Stray Observations, And Bichsel's Suspension
Let's get serious.
In case you’re not familiar with this format, it’s simple: a bullet list of verbal bullets. I know it sounds a little aggro, but I hope people recognize it for what it is, which is as a fun way to package criticism into something more interesting than just me on a soapbox or feeling like I need to click an SEO switch and articulate awful hot takes. Without voices like Roger Ebert, and a population of people who give weight to superficial words like “hater”, criticism feels like a lost art. Let’s build it back up.
The reason I mention this is because it feels like relevant context for one of the topics today: namely the Patrick Kane rumors (confirmed by Elliotte Friedman on his 32 Thoughts podcast). There’s an interesting way this topic tends to be framed. He’s a winner. Do you hear it? Playoff experience and Cups; two things Logan Stankoven doesn’t have. It’s easy to miss it if you only read the comments and not what’s implied. Trust the experts, not the haters who never played the game.
That’s rich coming from a fanbase that vehemently rejects (as they should) the way the experts view Ryan Suter. Suter has plenty of playoff experience, and his fans are people like Jim Nill, Pete DeBoer, and Steve Spott. Sure Suter has no Cups, but he’s a winner. Lian Bichsel is not. Bichsel is just a dude serving a suspension in the AHL. “But Bichsel…” — is not an NHL player, just like Stankoven, right?
Listen. We can argue over the merits of Kane (and we’ll get to them) but this is why I’ll plug my Stargazing appearance from Friday — I should clarify: I’m referring to the Stargazing feature that’s been around since 2009 at DBD — because this is precisely where “analytics” can help clarify the language often used in hockey debates. Instead of talking about “knowing how to win” and “Stanley Cup experience” we can focus on who Kane is now compared to who he used to be. How distanced is he from the player he used to be? And what’s the bottom line on that distance?
Patrick Kane: Who Is He Now, and Why Would Dallas Need Him?
Why it works
I don’t want Kane in Dallas. But Kane’s fans have a decent argument: the guy still produces like a star. In fact, he’s only had one season over the last 10 years when he didn’t produce like a superstar.
This is a pretty strong case. As much as I value underlying numbers, and looking for hidden meanings, etc, there’s still no substitute for raw talent. Kane, even at half speed, still has it. He can still puck handle better than most forwards (elite ones), he can still shoot, and he can still make offensive reads. If he can still produce, then why wouldn’t Dallas explore that option?
That’s why adding Kane works. Because no matter what his sG per WGAF amounts to, the dude can still finish plays at a high rate. He can still attack opposing formations in ways few others do. Nobody else can claim that.
Why it doesn’t
It’s easy to take for granted what an old player can do in the right system with the right linemates. Stars fans know it better than most. Between Joe Pavelski, Evgenii Dadonov, and Jamie Benn — this is the country for old men. However, none of these players have had the injuries Kane has had. Kane’s trajectory is closer to the norm, not to mention, similar to what we’ve seen happen to players like Seguin and Suter.
I mean, look. His shift-to-shift offense hit a wall before his injuries (still finishes at an elite rate, however).
That, to me, is the dilemma. Kane will score, and that’s great. But if he’s not scoring, is he still able to add value? This isn’t some abstract concept. It’s the same principle that fans intuitively understand when it comes to plus-minus: value doesn’t just manifest in production, but in territory. What does that kind of profile look like over the long haul in a grueling series when points are harder to come by, and it’s all about attrition over a seven-game series?
Kane’s net rating from shift to shift is so bad, he rates like a fourth liner.
So to simplify it: would Dallas be willing to live with a player who will cost Dallas territory in the long run, but who will still score at a high level in the short term?
Big picture
For those that don’t know, there are different cap rules for players who sign one-year contracts after the season has already begun. Kane’s agent is Pat Brisson, and he didn’t sound like a dude with low numbers in his head back in July. Regardless of the nuts and bolts, how does a move for Kane work without re-structering the very roster Jim Nill himself only recently put together?
Here’s what I’m trying to understand and why I wish insiders (all due respect to Friedman) had their own opinions about things. Kane is a right winger. Dallas has Pavelski, Duchene, Dadonov, and Smith on the right. How does that work? I’ll ask again for the cheap seats, since Pavelski is clearly going nowhere and the other right wingers were literally just signed a few months ago. HOW DOES THAT WORK?
The only way it works is if Kane plays left wing, which he has super limited experience at, on Seguin’s line…which would require somehow taking Mason Marchment out of the lineup? Even if you thought Kane was the answer, the logistics are borderline incomprehensible. Not only is there no way easy way to stick him into the lineup, but it further keeps players like Ty Dellandrea and Logan Stankoven (more on him tomorrow) out of the lineup.
To me the player the that makes the most sense to move out is Radek Faksa; if only to make sure that Steel and Dellandrea are on the ice at all times. And the only move that makes sense as an addition is a defenseman who doesn’t drag his team down.
So yea. None of this makes sense, regardless of who’s leaking the rumor. The only two expendable players are Marchment and Faksa, and Kane plays neither one of those positions. And yes, I’m aware of his super minimal time at left wing over 10 years ago when Chicago put together their Super Line. It still doesn’t make sense, and isn’t in keeping with Nill’s method of roster construction; who typically sees contracts to their logical end.
What the hell was that? Re: Dallas’ 5-4 overtime win vs. Philly
Dallas’ win over Philadelphia was unlike anything I’ve ever seen. And not in a good way. It’s one of those games that calls for an overreaction. Three goals against on the power play??! lol. That’s all I’ve got.
However, even the most absurd nights offer insight. While the shot attempts were lopsided in favor of Philly, Dallas challenged them where they needed to.
Of course, the story of the night was this. Remember this image because it’s probably the last time you’ll ever see anything like this.
I’ll have more on this later in the week. The power play deserves some attention, as some of their issues were building before the Flyers game.
To me the main takeaway is that Dallas has yet to dominate an opponent. They have yet to play a “full 60” and in general, haven’t impressed. They’ve run the gamut of various teams too, from the good (Vegas) to the bad (Anaheim) to the teams in-between (Philly and St. Louis). Each game was won by a difference of one goal, three needed an extra frame, and not a single stretch of dominance to be found other than the last half of the final stanza versus the Blues.
Does it mean anything? Not really. Or at least not yet. One of the reasons why I find postgame analysis so uninteresting is that people tend to analyze games from the result rather than the process that led to the result. Dallas hasn’t played a clean game.
Stray observations
If it weren’t for Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston would be Dallas’ most threateningly-looking player, night in and night out. Needless to say, my prediction is looking more and more conservative.
One thing you can say about DeBoer’s system is that I think the lines are finally finding their offensive groove. Again I just said “offensive.”
I wouldn’t worry about Jason Robertson. Although he’s not at the top of the list in points, he’s doing all the little things. Especially against Philly, where he looked like a terror on the forecheck. In some ways Robertson’s play versus the Flyers was instructive of the Kane discussion. Over the course of seven playoff games, what adds up? A player like Robertson hounding the puck in all three zones, or a player like Kane who is a good for at least a point every one or two games, but adds nothing else to the territorial bottom line?
Nils Lundkvist was an absolute boss on Saturday. Last year’s performance was his baby Platypus form by comparison. He made confident plays with the puck, pressed the action, but was also, oddly enough, Dallas’ defensive stalwart on the power play. It’s the kind of performance that coaches, consciously or not, remember well enough to stop nominating them for the odd healthy scratch. Thanks Joel Hanley, but barring injuries, you’re gonna have to stay put.
Seguin is an interesting watch. He hit a post, tried hard, created chances, and well…I said it already.
I don’t mind Scott Wedgewood and I think what he does is insanely hard: being asked to consistently perform against the backdrop of inconsistent play. But with Matt Murray and Remi Poirier doing so well in the AHL, I better not hear shit about Nill looking for another goalie. Figure out what you have. Then make potential moves. It’s not like they could have been worse than Wedgewood’s performance, although to be fair, there’s no goalie who wouldn’t have been completely discombobulated over those chances coming over on the power play. That’s entirely on the five-man units, and on Steve Spott.
Here’s my half-hearted defense of Mason Marchment. When Matt Duchene gets going, who has been slow to warm up, then Marchment will be out of excuses. I want to see what that line is, and whether Marchment can play more than passenger, before passing judgment after only a handful of games.
Am I on an island with Ty Dellandrea needing to play games? If I’m wrong, tell me in the comments. I’m not gonna reply or raise a stink. I’m just curious what people think.
Lian Bichsel’s suspension is fine (plus a quick word about Texas)
It sucked not to see Bichsel this weekend, but I didn’t mind. Why? Rule 70.4 isn’t exactly open to interpretation (read the last sentence).
So yea. You could argue that the punishment for this penalty needs to be revisited, but it was the letter of the law, and Bichsel violated it.
What’s funny is that you would think Texas didn’t miss his presence given their results, but they absolutely did. Against Milwaukee and Chicago, literal last-second heroics (from Matej Blumel and Mavrik Bourque, respectively) won them the games.
Right now, Texas will go as far as their top line takes them. Bourque and Logan Stankoven are doing everything in their power to pull the team up, with a stick tap to goaltenders Remi Poirier and Matt Murray. But they can be hard to watch when those players aren’t on the ice. Some of the supporting cast is starting to cook; Blumel, Curtis McKenzie, and Christian Kyrou, for example, are finding more of a groove (Kyrou less so, but at least his confidence seems to be growing). But the beating heart of Cedar Park are its two best forwards right now.
I know I am probably wrong, but a Dellandrea trade would not surprise me. The 2 CP forwards are knocking at the door, and Steel is a better and cheaper version of Dellandrea. I think if Dellandrea wasn't a former 1st round pick(visions of Val N. haunting management) it would have already happened.
Kane ? Just NO ! .... Marchment ? Your guess is as good as mine , but I’m losing patience ..... Dellandrea ? Deserves a chance with Segs and Dutch ....