Breakfast Salvos: Who I actually think is Dallas' top prospect, universal soldiers, and a quick Stars Stack update

Fasten your seatbelt.

Joe Pavelski. Artwork by Ryan Konzelman.

“I’m been slaving away all day making that slop.”

Those words, uttered by the former football player and veteran Hollywood stuntman, Allan Graf — playing a grill cook in the action classic Universal Soldier — is always on my mind when I do that predictable SEO trick and link back to my work. Keep in mind, this is not me being ungrateful or disrespecting anyone’s time. I say this with love…if you’re here, you better be reading everything I write! And by that I mean my prospect rankings at DBD. (This is mostly in jest, and an excuse to talk about Universal Soldier, not to mention a reason to gather in broad appreciation of stuntmen and women who don’t get enough love in the movie business. They deserve Oscars too you donks!)

I also just love Graf’s delivery of that line.

I feel like there’s a larger point embedded in this movie reference, about how much I appreciate your readership, and not taking things for granted despite starting out confrontational, but we got breakfast salvos to eat.

What do I really think about Dallas’ prospect rankings?

Let’s just start right from the top. I personally have Mavrik Bourque as the Stars’ top gun (oh stop; one movie reference is enough — it’s not my fault a top prospect has the name “Mavrik”).

Having Logan Stankoven at the top is not just about his talent, but the fact that he’s perceived as the best. Ranking him as the best makes practical sense for readers, and it’s also probably right. My personal rankings, though, are about what’s theoretical. So I personally think Bourque is Dallas’ best not because I believe he is right now, or because I think Stankoven may be less legit, but because theoretically — Bourque might be even better. This is where perception could hinder Bourque, however. He’s coming off an “up and down” season in the AHL whereas Stankoven was a CHL all star. If, let’s say, Pavelski is injured, meanwhile Stankoven and Bourque both have 30 points through 30 games in the AHL…who do you think gets the call?

I don’t think it’s a hot take to say that players have to battle perception at times. Devin Shore is one of the most milquetoast players I’ve ever seen. But Ken Hitchcock perceived him to be reliable, and so in that ill-fated 2017-2018 season that I wish every day I could unsee, he played more minutes in all situations than Jason Spezza.

So when I say Bourque is #1 in my personal rankings, it just means I think he’s theoretically their best. The statistical comps are on his side.

Bourque is nothing like Meier stylistically, of course, but the foundation is there for something singular. That’s always the tell-tale sign, IMO. Whenever I think of special players, I think of players that require their own description. Bourque is a defensively responsible, forechecking playmaker. Has its own ring to it, don’t you think?

Sidebar: if you haven’t read/watched Sean’s video breakdown of Bourque, what are you even doing here?

Stars Thursday Orbit: Looking at prospect Mavrik Bourque

Any Do-Overs Re: DBD’s Rankings?

A few. Aram Minnetian deserves to be higher. I keep thinking about Corey Sznajder’s defenseman compass. (Also, stick tap to Corey for becoming a brand new father!) I recommend reading it in full, but the details that stand out are that the most repeatable skills for a defender are controlled exits, exit percentage with possession, entry denials, chances allowed off entries, and retrieval of the puck in the defensive zone. My impression — I have to stress this because my knowledge of him thus far are clips on YouTube, other people’s profiles, a little bit of tracking data, and two games from the World Juniors that I barely even remember — is that he hits all the right notes. He can move, he can stop, and he can retrieve (despite being 5’11, it’s important to remember that the dude is nearly 200lbs; a flyweight he is not). Squint your eyes, and there are times when some of his transition game reminds me of Rasmus Andersson. So Stars fans: get hyped. (But also blame me if the hype bursts.)

A couple of others:

• Matej Blumel should have been higher, probably over Stranges. I’m still not terribly high on him though. Players like Blumel play the type of games that lend themselves to production. So sure, he’s probably more likely to put up points with an NHL cameo over someone like say, Bourque, but that’s different than playing a game that lends itself toward sustainable performance. As in: can he gain Dallas territory? How well does his forecheck interlink with his linemates? How well does his rush attack interlink with Dallas’ system? Does he create offense with different types of forwards, or just one? Etc. Players like Blumel and Janmark are a dime a dozen. But they stick around because there’s not much else, which is often all coaches want.

• Riley Damiani should have been lower. Having one down year after a fantastic year one is certainly nothing to criticize, but two? And a progressively worse one at that? I still like his potential as a fourth line option though. I think that’s what kept him relatively high on my tier 3 list. When all is said and done, that’s not bad for a fifth rounder. It’s hard not to root for him though.

• Watch out for Seminoff. I should have had him higher than Bertucci. It’ll be interesting to see if Neil Graham sticks him together with Stankoven to see if their chemistry for Kamloops translates at the AHL level. It’ll also be interesting just to see how symbiotic their relationship was.

Stack Update

Next week is the big Thomas Harley piece I keep talking about. I’m stoked about it because it’s not just slop I worked hard on, but because I think there’s a lot of interesting discussions embedded in my broad analysis of his many dimensions. Unlike the Mason Marchment piece, in which I really just wanted to chart one element of his game, the Harley essay covers the whole nine.

Plus it’ll have original artwork too. Speaking of, I hope fans are enjoying these original pieces. I knew I wanted something expressive, and fun. So that’s why I’m sharing Ryan Konzelman’s set on Joe Pavelski. Each player will have a portrait (as seen above), with an accompanying full-body image (as seen below.) It was Ryan’s idea to do a ‘trading card’ kind of concept. I love them, and I hope you do too.

Artwork by Ryan Konzleman.

Speaking of feedback, the people have spoken. If this place is gonna be the “new” beat, then it better have everything you crave. So yes, I’m gonna start writing about the Texas Stars too. That team is bonkers with Stankoven, Bourque, Kyrou, Seminoff, Grushnikov, and Arcuri all in the mix. Why half-ass this thing?

P.S. Watch out for my D Magazine piece early next week about Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa. It’s about time they got the smoke. (Respectfully, of course.)