Does Dallas have a moral dilemma with Jake Oettinger or can we expect a bounceback based on the data?

Let's watch some spreadsheets today.

I feel like every Jake Oettinger discussions starts in bad faith. There are those who view Oettinger in the context of the Calgary series from 2021, his contract and the public perception that comes with it, and ignore the rest. Then there are those who see only the rest, and ignore the Calgary series as some sort of memory implant.

So let’s start in good faith.

And let’s start by being upfront about trying to hold two competing ideas in our heads at once: namely that Oettinger is more capable than he’s shown, and Oettinger is having a bad year. Let’s see if we can’t assess the two, and figure out why these competing statements seem to coexist. Let’s also put the Pete DeBoer drama behind us, and entertain whether or not he was wrong for the right reasons. Because I feel like that’s something else that biases our perception.

I wasn’t really sure what I’d focus on today. Oettinger is a unique case all on his own and not just because of the discourse that surrounds him. This year is easily his worst year to date. So I decided to hit the sprawl head on. I wanted to compare Oettinger this year to his career average, to his peers, separating his performances from even-strength to all situations, to shorthanded; and doing so while keeping in mind a very important trend that has occurred in recent years: the massive dip in save percentage for all goalies over the years. Which is true. Over the last five seasons, the average Sv% is .879. The five seasons before that from 2016 to 2021? .906. The five seasons between 2011 and 2016? .911.

Obviously this year is a huge exception.

But is there a rational explanation? Can we expect a bounceback? Is this Oettinger being punished by the PDO gods or something else?