Double Feature: Stray observations following Dallas' 5-4 win over Chicago and Texas' 6-2 win vs. Manitoba
Stray observations for Friday (victory) night hockey in Texas. Brought to you by two hat tricks!
Stop me if you’ve heard — ahh, you know the joke. Something about slow starts and trailing games far too often for a serious contender. It’s unfair to define Dallas by a single trait, especially given where they’re at in the standings. But it’s almost enough to make you question whether we’re being deceived by the standings. After all, it’s one thing to fall down in the hole by two goals early against Vegas. But why is this happening against middling (St. Louis) and bad (Chicago) teams?
I don’t think there’s anything “negative” to assessing this Dallas team in proportion to expectation. This is what always bothers me about when teams get criticized, and how it often gets couched under “fan outrage” or “angry fans” as if we’re not talking about a group of humans all watching the same game. Is it impossible for fans to not…I don’t know — notice shit? Against one of the worst teams in the league, Dallas made this game a white-knuckler: down by two, then up by two, and then within eight seconds of needing the skills competition to close the game out against a scrapheap opponent.
Sorry. I don’t buy it. And not just because their I think their goal differential (plus-14 compared to plus-21 and plus-26 for Colorado and Winnipeg, respectively) is a stronger indicator to their place in the standings
However, we’re past that. Dallas is a flawed team. We know that. At this point it’s a question of whether or not the flaws of some of its individuals will finally start to disappear. Against one of the worst teams in the league — and thus the ideal place to look good — there was plenty of good news. And not just Roope Hintz’ hat trick. I thought a lot of players looked good, but none more important to keeping Dallas’ standings upright than Scott Wedgewood, who was absolutely fantastic. Four goals against may not seem like the place to credit him, but he made a lot of key saves. Consistency is hard for a backup goaltender, yet Wedgewood has remained consistent. Again, performance in proportion to expectation.
While it’s not an impressive win per se, it does keep Colorado and Winnipeg in heavy throat-gulp mode. Is there anything else? Just some strays.
The top line looked like the top line again
Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and Joe Pavelski have been broadly productive, but not as a trio. Last year, they dominated at even strength. This year, they’re just sort of meh by their standards. Obviously, Chicago being a lameduck opponent had a lot to with it, but at least it’s something they can build on. I feel like part of the top line’s turnaround will happen naturally. Except for Robertson’s on and off-again erratic play, there’s nothing to indicate this is somehow their natural state, so don’t be surprised if this signals a return to form for them.
Nils Lundkvist buys himself breathing room
I get that people don’t want to re-hash this discussion. Hell I’m as sick of writing about it as you are of reading it. But the Stars don’t have the kind of lights-out blueline that introducing another flawed player won’t make anymore flawed than it already is. Dallas can stand to dress a player still experiencing a learning curve.
So it was good to see Lundkvist get rewarded on the scoresheet with his Pavelski-deflected shot in the second period. I’m not optimistic that an abrupt turnover won’t add interest on his doghouse mortgage, but Dallas’ next two games are against Chicago and Montreal. They’re never a piece of cake with this team, but at least he gets experience.
Adventures in Lindell and Hakanpaa
On Chicago’s first goal I couldn’t help but focus on Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa using the boards, which Chicago’s forecheckers readily predicted, which ultimately gave the Blackhawks possession and thus, the goal. Lindell and Hakanpaa get a lot of credit from most people for being good defensively. I do think there’s truth to that, which their harshest critics understate. But it’s only true if you assume that good defensive happens in one zone instead of something that occurs in all three. Their inability to cleanly break out of the zone will always be problematic, and a reminder that there is more to good defense than strong gap control.
Wyatt Johnston: snakebit, but so his line…until tonight
Johnston gets the most eyes on him because expectations are higher, but a big part of the problem is that Benn and Dadonov are doing nothing for him. The line is clicking at 45 percent expected goal share, which means they’re not tilting the ice in terms of shot quality. Unfortunately there’s no easy fix. However, that’s not to say there isn’t an obvious one. Move Dadonov to the fourth line, and Craig Smith to the third. The line has been on a flatline since November. Why are they still together?
Well now we can point to December 29 when Benn got on board after a Johnston rebound. And no, that’s not enough.
The Chicago Perspective
Sadly, the worst news in the world is that whether Chicago won or lost doesn’t matter. They’re a basement dweller this year, which means they’re in Macklin Celebrini’s crosshairs. Celebrini isn’t in the rarified air of Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard, but I would put him Nathan MacKinnon-ish territory, which should be scary for Stars fans, long term. Also, Korchinski has been really impressive to me.
Texas Stars Strays
The Texas Stars were sitting pretty atop the Central not too long ago. But the Milwaukee Admirals, led by old friend Denis Gurianov, are trailing pretty close. Needless to say, finally getting some distance was essential, so that’s exactly — thanks to an unlikely hero — what Texas did tonight. Like many AHL games, there’s never as much flow as you’d like, but tonight felt like a classic case of one team getting goalied.
Remi Poirier, standing his ground
Early in the year it really felt like Matt Murray was the guy. And he was. But I never felt like it was a foregone conclusion based on Poirier’s overall body of work. In other words, Poirier playing well as he has as the number one with Murray in Dallas hasn’t changed much. Poirier’s been rock solid for the most part, and he was rock solid tonight.
Fredrik Karlstrom, first star
I’ve never been terribly sure what to make of Karlstrom. He has an NHL quality shot, and plays a pretty responsible game. If there’s room in the NHL for Fredrik Olofsson and Joel Kiviranta, now in Colorado, why not Karlstrom? Of course, Karlstrom won’t ever get voluntarily called up, but if Dallas ever had a rash of injuries, he’s one among a small handful of players not named Bourque or Stankoven who would make the cut. (Yes, even moreso than Matej Blumel, who has more raw talent, but doesn’t play the nuanced game that Karlstrom does.)
Quiet night for Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven
Only one point a piece — and on the same play — for the twins is definitely a quiet night. However, they’re never silent. They had several prime chances, including one glorious one early in the first period that Winnipeg’s netminder was lucky enough Bourque never truly got a handle on.
I’d personally liked to see some more shifting at left wing. Matej Blumel was their initial footnote, which then became Curtis McKenzie, which turned into Fredrik Karlstrom, and then back to McKenzie. Unfortunately Antonio Stranges has eaten consecutive scratches, so perhaps he’s in something of a doghouse, but I’d like to see him tried up there eventually.
Texas’ patchwork blueline
Christian Kyrou has been eating the odd healthy scratch, tonight included. Without Lian Bichsel there’s not a whole lot to write home about in terms of prospect interest. The only two players that should interest Dallas Stars fans are Artem Grushnikov and Gavin White and even then, I have no idea what to make of them. I like both players, but I don’t see what an NHL context looks like for them. They’re not multidimensional enough to be NHL options, but they are intriguing.
Quick scheduling note
I had all the time in the world to write more but I was under the weather so I promise to make it up to you. Two paid posts for next week including video analysis of what’s wrong with the Benn-WJ-Dadonov line, and another one on Bourque and Stankoven’s 40 second offensive zone shift from two weeks ago. Plus a ‘The Other Stars’ column, and a New Years-theme stats post (that’ll go up the minute 2024 hits). Whether you’re a paid subscriber or not, there will be plenty for everyone!
Am I crazy to think that Grushnikov becomes a much cheaper Esa Lindell when Esa's contract expires after next year?