Early overreactions to the Dallas Stars blueline without Miro Heiskanen
Can Thomas Harley do it all?
I don’t think the gravity of Dallas’ loss on Saturday has really set in. Or maybe it has, and I just haven’t been paying attention. With Miro Heiskanen listed as week-to-week, the Stars obviously have a problem. Saturday’s 4-3 loss to Nashville doesn’t really stand out on the surface. Dallas is without their number one defender, and their number one netminder. However, Heiskanen and Oettinger have been present in games in which they conceded early goals, and gave up goals late; which Saturday was yet another example of.
So we’re still waiting for that complete performance from this Dallas team. As we do, Nashville is within four points of catching of the Stars. It won’t happen (Dallas has two games on hand), but that’s not what should worry Stars fans. What should worry them, beyond the obvious, is just how much the playoff picture is crystallizing. If Dallas continues to struggle with Heiskanen’s absence — which goes without saying — then the odds of Dallas of playing Colorado in the first round increase.
Why? Because Winnipeg is separating itself further and further from the pack as the Central’s best. And that’s with 100 man games lost on the season versus Dallas’ 21. Whether you think Colorado is a ‘good’ matchup for a healthy Dallas team is beside the point. The point is that it sets the Stars for the toughest possible road to the Cup, with Colorado in Round 1, Winnipeg in Round 2, and whoever is left standing in the Pacific (Edmonton, by the way, finally got themselves in a playoff spot).
How good of a chance? They increase with every Winnipeg win, and every Dallas loss.
This to me, is the biggest concern as a direct result of Heiskanen’s injury. Even if you’re someone who doesn’t take Colorado seriously, or think the Stars match up well with them when healthy — which, I notice a lot of fans seem to think — that’s still a hell of a matchup to start the playoffs. The 2023 Minnesota Wild they ain’t.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
I thought Dallas looked okay given the sudden blueline abyss staring at its fanbase. Why was that? Let’s start at the top.
Thomas Harley: elite
I’ve written a lot about Harley. Before this season started, I looked at the video:
And the stats:
The Stars’ Defensive Hopes Run Through Thomas Harley (D Magazine, August 1 2023)
My conclusion? If you follow me on Twitter than you know the meme. Thomas Harley: elite. I’m actually quite annoyed that these are the posts that seem to generate the most engagement, but that’s neither here nor there. The point is, I felt like Harley’s performance in the playoffs was enough. Not all small sample sizes are created equal. Harley gave us a small sample of who he was in the team’s most critical hour. For 19 games, he looked mature beyond his years, aggressive, talented, and unlike everyone else not named Miro on the blueline — like somebody who could take over a shift. Dallas hasn’t had that since prime John Klingberg, and at last, here he was.
If the blueline looked legible on Saturday, it’s because Harley played 24 minutes (next closest was Ryan Suter, at 20) and dominated within those minutes, earning 64 percent Corsi For, and 87 percent (!) expected goal share. Harley has arrived, and not just because he has a ton of goals on the season. Only two percent of his peers rate better offensively, and defensively he’s an overall plus.
If there was a silver lining to Saturday night, it was that Harley needs to be unleashed. He’s ready. He’s been ready. And Dallas needs what he brings, now more than ever. If Harley could falter under the pressure, he would have.
Step one was giving him the minutes. Step two is figuring out how to maximize those minutes. It’s frankly, bizarre, to have the team’s now-top defender on a musical chair rotation with nothing more than warm bodies. And that brings us to…
Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa: not elite
I’m not a big fan of these Game Score charts trotted out like gospel after every game. “Analytics” is about the unfolding patterns, and what they can teach us, whether it’s in the context of value, the future, who’s worth their cap, who’s not, roster management, and on and on and on. It’s not about who got the best grade and using that grade to determine who belongs in the Good bucket versus the Bad bucket.
But here’s what worries me these absolutely horrendous Game Scores for Lindell and Hakanpaa.
It was their first test run facing the top lines. Here were the top three forwards Lindell faced, and his TOI versus them:
Ryan O’Reilly — 9:58
Gustav Nyquist — 8:58
Filip Forsberg — 8:39
And here was Hakanpaa’s competition.
Ryan O’Reilly — 10:24
Gustav Nyquist — 9:43
Filip Forsberg — 9:34
For casual fans, that’s Nashville’s top line. Lindell and Hakanpaa were below 50 percent in shot attempt share. In terms of expected goal share, they were even worse at 41 and 30 percent, respectively. Dallas’ expected goal share went up 31 percentage points without Lindell, and 45 percentage points higher without Hakanpaa. This seems statistically significant.
Despite the duo’s reputation as Dallas’ “shutdown pair”, it’s Suter and Heiskanen who have been facing elite competition this year. Per PuckIQ, Suter-Heiskanen hover around six minutes per game versus elite competition whereas Lindell-Hakanpaa hover just below five minutes per game versus elite.
Sidenote: How elite competition is defined by the gentlemen at PuckIQ is also significant. The phrase “quality of competition” is so often trotted out to mean “plays tough minutes” that it’s useful to think critically about what tough minutes actually are and specifically, the degrees of tough minutes. You can read about their methodology here.
My problem with the Lindell-Hakanpaa pair, besides all of the obvious, is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: no one else can play their type of minutes, so no one else gets their type of minutes.
Nils Lundkvist: the sobering reality
Despite a play that I suspect DeBoer hated (when he got shoved to the ice, and puckjacked), I thought Lundkvist looked solid. He’s still an oddly textured player in the offensive zone, and an oddly static one in the other two zones. But he looked good.
However, I’d be shocked if Lundkvist isn’t part of a potential deal to upgrade the blueline. Lundkvist is never gonna have the leash to comfortably play every night. I’d also argue that he’s never gonna develop the talent to become a true impact puck mover also. Think about the things he’d have to develop in order to break open a shift: better edgework to change tempo in the corners, better acceleration to exit the zone (in order to do more than pass the puck up ice), better puck handling to be a passing threat, etc. That’s a lot, and the kind of traits/skills Lundkvist would need in order to be level up.
The point here is not that I think Lundkvist is bad. On the contrary, among 265 defensive skaters with at least 200 minutes played, he’s top 40 in even strength points per hour. I don’t think he gets enough credit for what he’s been able to do within his very small, very short-leashed window. On a different blueline, I think he could be quite effective in a bottom pair role. But not only is this a) not the blueline to shelter him but b) this is not the staff to give him rope. In which case, why not trade for a defensemen who the coaching staff will trust?
Just saying.
Lundkvist is a strange case, but also one that you see all the time. If this team isn't going to be a place where he can grow, then he needs to be elsewhere. The fact the team played him until he had to clear waivers and then started to sit him was the worst. Not saying AHL time would have made him Harley, but I doubt it would have made him worse.
On that same line of thinking though, if Neil Graham's special sauce he put on Harley is going on Bourque and Stank the same way I'm ready for it. I get that they won't be instant replacements for Pavelski or Duchene, but those two + $6M in cap space do make the conversation much more interesting. The kicker is ultimately if Duchene is the only reason the 2nd line isn't being called the 3rd line like they were last year.
Is Harley the defender that Dallas wanted Klingberg to be? To me he's looking like a 2nd pair darling that only gets 20 minutes, but is the 20 minutes where they can do the most damage (think the sports car you only drive when you will enjoy driving)
Also, looking at the minutes I was a bit surprised that Suter only had 20 in a Miro-less game (and no crazy special teams minutes). I'm happy that PDB knows that 20 is about the limit there.