From Highlight to Lowlight: Wyatt Johnston's milestone, awful Dallas defense, and other meandering game 70 notes
A win's never just a win, and loss is never just a loss. No game better represented this than Dallas' 6-5 overtime win over the sliding Calgary Flames.
(The good) What a night. Wyatt Johnston scored his 20th goal to lead all rookies. Jason Robertson became the first Dallas Star player to score back-to-back 40 goal seasons. And the win gave the Stars some extra space over the Colorado Avalanche.
(The bad) What a night. Multiple defensive breakdowns. Jake Oettinger with an .891 save percentage for the month. Dallas was outshot 52 to 40. (For the purposes of the Stack, shots = shot attempts. Seems silly for shot to mean “shot on net.” The point of using one word is so that they don’t have qualifiers.)
(The Ugly) Don’t look now but Colorado is three points behind Dallas with two games in hand. And they’re third in the Central. Yes, you don’t hear about L.A. because hockey media loves their Eastern Conference teams, and stats nerds don’t have any evidence to make a case for them (although they should). But they now have more points than Dallas. The reason this is relevant is because if Dallas stays 1st in the Central, Seattle’s likely their first round opponent. They are not gonna be an easy out, either. Unlike Winnipeg, who only has one weapon (goaltending), Seattle can win as a team. Just saying.
So about those lights…
There’s nothing to say about this goal except that it’s nice to see Joe Pavelski getting back on the scoresheet. He’s one of the players who’s kind of hit a wall recently, and I have no doubt that age is catching up to him in a way that wasn’t before. Yes, he’s been a great story. But like all stories, they eventually end. Pavelski is more or less the same age Patrick Marleau was when he became such a depreciating asset that Toronto gave Carolina a first round pick just to take him off their hands. That pick became Martin Necas, who currently leads the Hurricanes with 64 points. lol, as the kids say.
I’d have nice things to say about Radek Faksa, but I don’t like the narrative that he’s having a “great offensive season.” Even DeBoer has talked up his goal totals as justification for his presence on the second PP unit - which I get, as injuries have forced him into that spot. But goals do not equal offense. He’s on pace for 19 points. In terms of points per game, he’s on track for a CAREER WORST. So what are we actually talking about? Faksa’s gonna be solid as a 4th line center once the playoffs start. Just don’t tell me about his “bounceback year” or whatever.
I know I’m being super negative, but if Dallas knows what’s good for them, they’ll start getting aggressive moving as much deadweight as possible next season. That should start with Faksa and the other guy we’ll get to in a minute going the other way…
(Good god has Markstrom’s rebound control just gone to absolute shit.)
Speaking of horseshit narratives, apparently Nils Lundkvist needs to “prove” something to Dallas. Let’s rewind, and get back to basics: Lundkvist is a rookie. He’s been scratched 11 games total, and five in a row before tonight. If they gave up a first round pick for him expecting him to John Klingberg out the gate, that makes the trade even worse.
But so the cycle begins. Nils makes a mistake, and gets punished with a healthy scratch. He makes a mistake after getting scratched, and he gets benched. (He played 2:39…the entire night.) The whole point of development is not to develop perfection, but to develop an identity. No player is perfect. (Well, except for Bergeron) They all have to find ways to leverage their strengths over their weaknesses, or in place of that - ways to limit weaknesses so that their lack of strengths never become an obstacle (see Faksa). Lundkvist made a bad read here, but part of developing your own identity is being able to experience a full game where you can make bad reads, or cost your team. Sounds bad, I know, but how else are you gonna know how to react if you’re not given the chance to react?
The treatment of Lundkvist is not a Stars problem. It’s just a sickness. A hockey sickness. In school, it’s not; if you struggle, there is support for you, especially if you are younger than your peers (cough), or struggle in some neurodivergent way. In your career, it’s not; success is fluid, which is why you have continuing education, and personal development. But this is hockey, and in hockey, you’re on your own. The NHL is not a community. It’s just a business.
Also: read those last two sentences with Brad Pitt’s Killing Them Softly monologue voice.
Johnston’s season has been nothing short of spectacular. The reason why I post stuff like his ‘xEVO’ and ‘xOff’‘ numbers - which I know, mean nothing to casual fans - is to emphasize that despite Johnston having 20 goals on the year, this isn’t some kid lucksacking into a high shooting percentage to gain the edge on his Calder peers. He’s shooting 14 percent. The average S% of the top 10 goal scorers is 17. The shot quality he’s generating, as in the kind of shots we should expect to become goals or could easily BE those goals in a parallel universe, is on another level compared to his peers. That is sustainable offense. And that’s huge.
One of the running themes of the night was Dallas’ defensive breakdowns. Lundkvist will be seen as a poster child because hockey loves to eat its young, but this was a collective miscommunication. The entire team collapsed too far into the middle. If MacKenzie Weegar had wanted, he could have passed it to Mangiapane who was suddenly wide open right in the slot. But also, sometimes credit where credit is due: Weegar is a legit number one defensemen (look at Ekblad without him), and he made a number one defenseman’s move on Dallas.
What is Luke Glendening doing here? Did he think the man Colin Miller already had wrestled to the ice 15 feet away from the play was gonna turn into the open man? Glendening is having a bad year, and a career worst. But he’s a veteran. So of course Mavrik Bourque is not an option.
I’m being somewhat facetious though. It’s important to remember that Dallas only recently accrued enough cap space to do so. They’re now at $837,361. Neither Mason Marchment nor Tyler Seguin are on Injured Reserve or Long Term Injury Reserve. I won’t go over LTIR rules or anything like that, but for now, just know that doing so forces Dallas to consider new factors, like Accruable Cap Space Limit, and a Salary Relief Pool. Want to hear something fun? The formulas for each can change. Plus Wyatt Johnston just earned an extra $212,500 in performance bonus with his 20 goals. It won’t count against the cap this year, but it’s still something Dallas has to watch. There are eight other milestones a player on an entry level contract can earn in performance bonuses, but Johnston isn’t close to the others. So yea, there’s a reason why teams have guys on tap just crunching numbers away. And why certain players get called up, why some don’t, or why some injured players aren’t immediately used as cap relief.
TL;DR: The Dallas Stars are only recently now in a position to consider these options, and even then, until Marchment or Seguin are put on IR, Dallas won’t have a roster spot open.
Just to tie my frustrations into a nice little bow, plays like this are why it’s so crucial to let rookies play through their mistakes. I’m not talking about giving them a little rope, or a smiley glad hand about how they’ll get better with their spot in the pressbox already picked out. I’m talking Let the Motherfuckers Play. Give them the same rope you give someone like Ryan Suter, who has the entire play in front of him, and then makes a terrible read. Is Suter in danger of losing his spot in the lineup? Nope. Again, I’m not here for the Suter bashing, or even the Hanley bashing. And I’m not here to make excuses for Lundkvist’s play. What I’m saying is give them a genuine run of games. A decent sample size, where you can watch how he executes over a longer timeline. Yes, Lindkvist should have to earn the respect of the coaching staff, but he shouldn’t have to earn the dignity of simply getting the opportunities.
Robertson is 21.2 expected goals above replacement. That’s behind only Connor McDavid and Mikko Rantanen. Per Evolving-Hockey, he’s worth an extra nine points in the standings. Sounds about right.
Lindell and Hakanpaa are Dallas’ shutdown pair, for better or worse. I don’t like their lack of mobility on the whole, but I think Dallas’ defensive breakdowns were more about how they reacted as a group. They collapsed too tight everytime Calgary would start moving the puck at the point.
It’s unfortunate that the Flames have slid to the point of likely missing the playoffs. They’re a strong possession team, and they’re almost always in great position to attack. The problem is that there’s no cohesion when it comes to execution. They’re also an amusing What If version of the Stars, as they’re 4-12 in overtime. But let’s face it. Being better in overtime is not what’s sinking them. Markstrom is.
Hakanapaa taketh, Hakanpaa giveth.
Dallas was mostly dominated in overtime. But who needs strong possession and expert tactics when you have a Robertson?
Markstrom with the Binnington half-tantrum. Again, I kind of wish Calgary could claw back in. Especially if Dallas finishes first. It’d be nice to see Dallas get revenge on them for last year.
You draft an offensively skilled PMD and then punish each time he makes a risky play in an effort to turn him into Lindell 2.0. Then after he is squeezing the stick so tightly for fear of doing anything other than high lobs and off the glass exits you berate him for not doing the offensive things that you drafted/traded him for.
Nice commentary David. The concern I have about Nils is he has so little playing time that next year he will still be basically a rookie, despite what the roster says. I have read nothing to make me think the Stars would be willing to go into next year with a d-man with so little playing time, plus 1-2 rookie forwards like Maverik and/or Standoven. My fear is that we will still have more of the same, but maybe just a little bit less of it because one vet is gone instead of two or three. An even greater concern is that there may be more front office involvement on the makeup of the team than we know, and I don’t think that Jim Nill is the issue.