Game 11 Stray Observations: Dallas Loses to Boston, But Mainly Jeremy Swayman
What this loss was really about.
The concept of sample sizes can obfuscate warning signs that are actually trends, or trends that are merely signs. Are the Dallas Stars, slow starters? Or is this merely a slow start? I feel like even this question is an obfuscation. Kind of like the Stars’ misleading 3-2 loss to the Bruins tonight.
After all, the real question is whether or not they’re good through their first 11 games. Yes, they’re first in the Central. Cookie for you. But the Anaheim Ducks are 4th in the Pacific. Standings are important because they represent the bottom line. But we’re talking about the bottom line through 11 games. And right now, Dallas doesn’t look like an elite team through their first 11.
In fact, as I discussed with Gavin Spittle and Sean Shapiro tonight, you’d be hard pressed to even list a dominant win thus far. The power play is its own topic, and I’ll start working on some video analysis soon. But for now, just know this…
…At even strength, in terms of raw possession (shot attempts), they’re just the wrong side of mediocre.
Obviously, things will change. The power play won’t be cold forever, and neither will Jason Robertson. To me the real question is gonna be about what trends they can either reverse, or accelerate. Great terms aren’t perfect teams. But they can’t be too imperfect; certainly not as much as we’ve seen from a Stars team whose only excuse (at least for tonight) is that they were missing Matt Duchene and Radek Faksa.
That hurts, but this was a Boston team missing their entire top defense pair, and icing half an AHL blueline. Can you imagine what this game would have looked like if the Stars were missing Miro Heiskanen?*
Highlights
Stray Observations
That dog, Ty Dellandrea
I don’t know how many times I have to go to bat for this kid but let last night be a lesson: Dellandrea belongs on this roster, full time. Keep in mind I’m not demanding top six icetime or anything like that. But his game is perfectly suited for the fourth line. However, the real question is: would I feel the same way if Dallas magically had enough cap to bring up Stankoven and Bourque? One argument at a time.
Dallas is 30th in first period goals
The heading speaks for itself, but when it comes to slow starts, there’s a big part of your answer. Only St. Louis and San Jose are worse.
Where’s the Give Them Any Name But ‘The Avengers’ Name line?
As of this writing, Jason Robertson with Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski are 48 percent in expected goal share. In terms of unblocked shot differential, they’re 47 percent. That’s simply not good enough. You could blame some of this on Robertson looking sketchy out the gate, but for as dangerous as they are, they’ve been stuck in their own zone far too often.
Thomas Harley, warts and all
I thought Harley had some great moments, and some bad ones. I’d always rather see him play towards his strengths, but he didn’t seem terribly comfortable versus Boston’s forecheck. Harley has been excellent for most of the season, but it’s worth remembering that we’re talking about a player we haven’t seen play a full season. I’m fine with games like this as long as his instincts aren’t coached out of him. Besides, there’s a difference between struggling to make plays, and struggling to read plays. The former happens to the best of them. Especially against good opponents.
Power play stuff
I’ll get into this later this week or early next, but my gut reaction is that Robertson has been way too quick on the trigger (especially at his position), and I’ve never been fond of Benn on the top unit to begin with.
Marchment and Benn back to their Vegas ways
Marchment and Benn’s penalties were certainly problematic, but what’s interesting is that Marchment has at least drawn penalties, and Benn hasn’t taken too many. You might be surprised to learn who the first offender has been so far. (And no not Wyatt Johnston.)
*
The stats didn’t back this up, but was it just me or did Heiskanen have an off-game? Seemed like he fought the puck hard a lot. Maybe it was just the ice, though, which was particularly heinous tonight.
The Boston Perspective
It sucks that we missed a showdown between two Norris candidates in Heiskanen vs. McAvoy. What we did get was a look at Boston’s next core. While we make of them for passing on Barzal, Connor, and Kylington in 2015 back when they had all three, when they hit, they hit big, as they did with McAvoy, Pastrnak, and now Matthew Poitras (who is looking like mini Bergeron). I don’t know that John Beecher is a needle mover, but he looked excellent.
They’ve been an interesting team to watch given their injuries, and youth. Despite losing their top two centers, they’re on a similar path as they were last year. As long as Poitras ends up in the Charlie Coyle position where he belongs, the Bruins will still be the team to beat in a bizarre Atlantic. The Red Wings are hot air, but they’re dangerous hot air. Toronto is always gonna do Toronto things, and so far, Tampa Bay looks faded, and all the teams wanted to turn things haven’t (Bufallo, Montreal, and Ottawa).
Still, it’s hard to imagine Bston beating any of the top teams in the Metro. I don’t think the Rangers are a great team. But they have firepower, a deep blueline, and maybe the best goaltender on the planet. Getting points off a good Dallas team is huge because if that matchup ever happens, it better be the Eastern Conference Finals. If there’s one thing Boston wants to avoid, it’s a good hot team over a cold great team.
I usually don't pay too much attention to stats or standings until 20 games in, but the Stars look like a slow, physically weak team at times. The net front seems to be just fair, but the board battles are lacking. While I don't think hits are a "be all/end all", it would be better if it was a bigger part of the team in general. Hits can slow the opposing players down over the course of a game. If the team was quicker, hitting would not be as much of an issue.
Another issue is the overuse of Heiskanen. I know he's young and withstands hit well, but it's still wearing on him. I would like to see Bichsel come up for a couple of games and see he he can take some of the pressure off. Moving out Hak might hurt the PK, but still help the team overall. Moving Lindell would be more difficult, but even better as Miro could move back to the left side.