Game 16: Belated Stray Observations in Dallas' Bizarre 6-3 Loss to Colorado
Is their place at the top slipping or did the Stars simply momentarily lose their grip?
For a team with an 11-4-1 record, you wouldn’t know it. That’s neither an apology for the team after Saturday’s critical loss to Colorado nor a sarcastic referendum to the fan reaction. If anything, it affirms how much higher the bar’s been set. This isn’t just a “contending” team. They’re a Cup favorite. Are they acting like one? Not really.
However, I’m not convinced we’re seeing a paper tiger either. (At least not yet) True, Dallas has lost to only good teams. But let’s look at their expected goal share in each of their losses:
Colorado: 32.06 xGF%
Boston: 62.96 xGF%
Vancouver: 49.53 xGF%
Toronto: 69.05 xGF%
Vegas: 60.14 xGF%
On the surface, they deserved a better fate than their 0-4-1 record against elite teams would suggest. Although I want to be clear: deserving to win a game is not the same as doing what was necessary to win. Even analytically, expected goal share is not the whole story. For example, against Vegas, the Knights owned 12 of the top 20 in Microstat Game Score and five of the top seven players per Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones data.
The main thing is that regardless of the stats, Dallas seems to be spinning plates. They win the shot quality battle but lose the special teams, or win the special teams battle, but lose the territorial game. The same is true of the players. Nothing’s quite coalesced.
Nowhere was this more emblematic than versus the Avalanche. After going up 3-0, and finally executing early — a problem that has plagued the Stars — they floundered late and got destroyed, allowing six consecutive goals. It wasn’t a series of lucky breaks either. Colorado leveraged their speed and put the heat on Dallas with the forecheck and their patented high cycle (something the Stars seem to struggle with, which is what interests me about the New York matchup today). The end result felt justified despite such a great start.
Regardless, the Stars are first in the Central. Should we expect them to stay there? Maybe some stray observations can offer clues.
Stray Observations
Tyler Seguin, on the rise
Seguin was the player I picked to experience a revival at D Magazine. Is it happening and was his two-goal night an affirmation of that? It’s certainly trending that way.
He’s on pace for 61 points, which would be a massive upgrade over the 50 and 49-point seasons he had prior. However, how much is this the Matt Duchene Effect? I’m not sure. When we have a bigger sample, I’ll dig into it. For now, my assumption is “a lot.” Interestingly, Seguin rates better than Duchene in terms of shot attempts-for and shot quality-against (RAPM), but Duchene is otherwordly in the other two offensive categories. Duchene also consistently rates above Seguin in Microstat Game Score. So yea, there’s a lot of merit to the Duchene Effect.
However, I think that goes without saying. To me the more interesting debate is whether or not Seguin is actively helping Duchene carry the line (which I was skeptical he was doing at all early on) instead of simply riding his coattails. He’s making a strong case so far, and he’s done it largely as a two-way presence. Also, keep a mental note about when to use “two-way” on a player. Just saying: here at the Stars Stack we don’t want use that description on players like Glendening and Faksa. A 60-point forward who rates strong defensively on the other hand?
Top defensive pair gets busted up
This won’t be a trend, but boy did Miro Heiskanen and Ryan Suter have themselves a night.
If there’s any subterfuge about Dallas’ record against good teams, the playoffs are what I go back to. Against Seattle and Vegas, Dallas’ lack of blueline speed was exploited. Against Colorado, Dallas’ lack of blueline speed (especially without Thomas Harley) was exploited. The pattern speaks for itself, and it’s the single biggest reason why the Stars couldn’t generate any offense in the third: their failure to break out cleanly. It’s no wonder Dallas is rumored to be in on Nikita Zadorov.
I don’t believe Zadorov is the answer (like, at all) but he’d be an improvement over anyone not named Heiskanen or Harley. However, that’s not saying a whole lot. Moreover, he’s an undisciplined player. Granted, Dallas’ PK looks like it can handle anything right now, but still. Regardless, I think we can safely assume that the blueline is what Nill will be looking at come the deadline.
Dallas’ power play fixed?
The Stars went from 29th to 17th literally overnight. Now they’re 14th in the league at 20.8 percent. This is a power play unit that should have been better after their offseason moves. Back when they were ranked fifth. So no, it’s not fixed.
But it’s getting a lot better. The top unit switching between the 1-3-1 and the spread formation has paid off, and the second unit keeps doing its thing. I’ve never been terribly worried about the power play but that’s not to say they’re where they need to be, nor is it to say they’ve shaken off some of their bad habits. For now at least, it’s not outright sabotaging them and that’s a start.
A quick word about Joel Hanley
Hanley is a fine player. It’s possible he’s an everyday NHLer in an alternate universe. But here’s what I find frustrating. Right now Dallas’ 13th forward is rotation between Ty Dellandrea and Sam Steel. One is a player with genuine potential as a middle six option, and the other one is a player with potential as a middle six option and genuine NHL experience. Why then, the obsession with a player on the blueline who has neither? Neither potential, nor experience.
This isn’t an argument to bring Lian Bichsel up — ready or not, and he is very very ready IMO — nor do I think there’s such a thing as some magical 7th defender who can give you quality minutes away from the everyday healthy scratch. However, there’s no shortage of defensemen with experience who can play the healthy scratch game. Again, this isn’t a criticism of Hanley’s game. Just that if his game is so milquetoast as to never be an option unless injuries hit, or if a prospect is struggling (god forbid we give a veteran a reprieve), then you’ll forgive me if I don’t see the grand design.
The Colorado Perspective
I’ve eased up on being so bullish about Colorado as a contender. Mainly because their summer moves have been a dud. However, I ‘keep the faith’ because you see this all the time in prizefighting: the champion who loses their belt, still in their prime, hungry to get it right back. It’s a complete cliche that bad movies love to milk but it’s also the truth. MacKinnon, Makar, Nichushkin, Toews and Rantanen are still in their prime and still have the capacity to win the Cup. Nobody considers them contenders anymore with Dallas and Vegas in the West, and Boston, New York, and Carolina in the East. If you’re a Cup champion, why wouldn’t you take that as a personal insult?
Lack of depth or not, this is still one of the best cores in hockey playing like they have something to prove.
They’ve had a bizarre start though. We’re still learning about the newlook Avalanche but man…if they do the Tampa/Chicago special and get Landeskog back in time for the playoffs…a healthy, rejuvenated Landeskog…
This week’s schedule
At last, a normal week! Here’s what I’ve got cooking:
Monday Night: Game 17 stray observations (podcast)
Tuesday: Texas Stars report
Wednesday: A Matt Duchene piece for D Magazine
Wednesday Night: Game 18 stray observations (podcast)
Friday: Miro Heiskanen’s new bag (paid)
I may do Wednesday’s stray observations in written form but we’ll see.
Good morning David. I wasn’t sure which forum is most appropriate to pose this question, but Jack Han had an interesting note on Jim Montgomery. Monty with the Bruins now has the highest winning percentage EVER through 100 games.
He said during FLA game he wants his team to hang onto the puck more. Modern tactics, but kit ground breaking according to Jack & he dives into a technical teach piece.
What I find interesting is comparing & contrasting what’s going right with Monty in BOS vs what he did/had to do here in DAL. He pretty famously had to change from his preferred style to a more hard core defensive game to give success here. He also couldn’t really unlock the mystery of Dallas slow starts.
Obviously, BOS & DAL have two different sets of players, but I wonder why his preferred style was a no-go in DAL & why it is finding greatest win percentage ever success in BOS even spanning into a “rebuilding” year there?
Was the overhaul of the roster for & defensive programming done by Hitch in going back to dead puck hockey insurmountable in Monty’s first year plus here (wrong personnel)? Did the players not really buy in? Something else?
I wonder if the compare & contrast between success in BOS & mediocre results here might be instructive about DAL from a roster construction or player implementation perspective.
My gut tells me it might have something to do with the defensive corps & their skill set, but wanted a more expert opinion.
Thanks for the response. It sucks that the Stars could not be the beneficiary of GMJN’s find from the college coaching ranks.
Unfortunately, Monty’s personal issues got in the way.
Nill handled the situation with aplomb and it looks like the Bruins are the beneficiaries of Monty getting his shit together.