Despite being second in the Central, Dallas has lost four of their last six. On Wednesday night, they were on the receiving end of yet another high scoring affair. In some ways, the night’s result doesn’t really clarify much about the Stars as a contender. But it’s felt like the entire season has been a mystery box of their status with slow starts becoming late-period collapses, special teams coming alive, going back to being a corpse, and then resurrecting itself again.
None of that is reassuring. The top teams look like the top teams (we’ll ignore Edmonton since they seem to be ignoring their goaltending fix) so there’s no excuse. This isn’t a team with injuries (although Tyler Seguin’s bump is cause for concern) or too many new faces to blame it on. After all, the NHL is not a development league so the idea that some lines might be “developing” chemistry is obviously foolish.
Dallas may not have deserved a better fate, but they certainly deserved a better sequence in the third period, which I’ll get to later. For now, the game itself felt like a faster team playing a slower team. With nine goals registered, it turned into a race, giving the faster team the edge. You don’t always notice it, but Dallas’ age seemed to show tonight. The Panthers attacked with speed through the neutral zone all night.
What’s funny is that the Stars tried to mirror what Florida was doing. However, Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling pinching up on the play looks a lot different than Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell pinching up on the play. Yes, Hakanpaa found accidental success, but this is why I’m vehemently against letting them do that (Ryan Suter included). They’re not offensively talented players. They can pinch all the want; it’s not gonna change the ceiling on what they can do. If anything, it complicates the counterrush.
In the battle between designed versus operational efficiency, you have to adjust the former if the latter can’t deliver. That’s what Penguins coach Mike Sullivan did to the Pittsburgh forecheck in November, as documented from Jesse Marshall at The Athletic. An aging team tried to play an aggressive forecheck, and it backfired. Eventually they adjusted to something not necessarily slower, but busier in the neutral zone rather than aggressive in the opponent’s zone.
If Lindell, Hakanpaa, and Suter are gonna eat so many minutes, it might behoove Dallas to slow their attack, and keep offensively-anemic defenders out of offensively-challenging situations. Unsurprisingly, all that movement backfired, and they gave up way too many shots going back the other way.
Just saying. They’re so obviously out of place when they try to pull that crap off that it looks like a Bugs Bunny seduction. Was there anything else? Of course!
Jason Robertson’s struggles
The national telecast (which I incorrectly called the Florida group on Twitter: just saying) leaned hard into Robertson. I think Robertson’s struggles are nuanced, as in: I don’t think it’s as simple as he’s not shooting right, or his controller is disconnected or something. But his shift-to-shift goal scoring ability is well below his two previous season (second chart).
I’m also not big on this Benn and Robertson rotation. Benn is just not a good enough passer at this point in his career to play on that line.
Atrocious officiating
Officiating in the NHL sucks. This will continue to be the case as long as the NHL doesn’t care to improve it or doesn’t think criticisms of it are legit. But the biggest momentum shift in the game was when Ekman-Larsson crosschecked Sam Steel as many times as Sonny got hit with lead, and Steel retaliated in kind, and was the one called. Granted, I’m not into this butterfly effect rabbit hole of “this is why Florida won.” Haven’t we criticizing the Stars for their late period collapse? This game was a late-period collapse, which is the more important takeaway. But for sure, it defined Florida’s opportunity to take back the lead.
Thomas Harley: Elite
Friend of the Discord, Greg Amundsen, posted this chart from the other day looking at even strength goal leaders and look who’s at the top: our boy. Harley’s getting prime even strength minutes, but he should be the second-most; not behind Ryan Suter. Unlike everyone not named Heiskanen, Harley’s offensive instincts capitalize on his aggressive pinches. He knows when, how, and has the speed to get back on D. What I loved about his game tonight is that it wasn’t just opportunism, but he was territorial offensively, Pac-manning his way all over the ice. It was another fantastic game for a blueliner that probably even deserves Heiskanen’s minutes, if we want to get silly.
Can we get Craig Smith on a proper line, please?
While Ty Dellandrea slowly gets phased out of the lineup, and Evgenii Dadonov continues his somewhat pointed decline (although he had a good one tonight), why isn’t Smith on that line with Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston? He’s not the perfect player, but he is a potent player.
I’ve loved his speed, and surprising level of intensity for someone typically known for being a one-way scoring forward. Buried on a line with Sam Steel and Radek Faksa (sure, he scored a goal…for his third entire point on the season), it’s a testament to his game that I notice him all over the ice. That’s hard to do with the cinder blocks he plays with. (I know Steel’s a real one but just saying.)
Tyler Seguin update?
Marchment-Seguin-Duchene has been the story of the season for the forwards, so naturally, seeing him run himself into two players the way he did and leave the game is a scary thought. While I don’t think Seguin’s absence would be catastrophic since we know who’s carrying that line (although Marchment continues his hot streak), it sucks to see a player finally getting his groove back get his groove once again taken away by some random ass injury.
Florida’s Perspective
The win catapulted Florida to second in the Atlantic, and that feels right. Detroit is due for a modest fall, and while Toronto is in its own hyperspace of dangerous yet defunct, I think Vasilevskiy regressing somewhere to the mean makes Tampa a potential riser. They’re seventh in expected goal share, and looked the part tonight against Dallas, blazing through the neutral zone unimpeded for what felt like every entry. They don’t depth in the traditional sense. Forsling and EOL are not automatic top four defenders, and players like Bennett and Reinhart certainly aren’t superstars, but they play as aggressive a system in hockey as there is, everyone seems to know the assignment.
Washington tomorrow
I have no idea how Washington is in the thick of it after the start they had, but they are, and Dallas plays them tomorrow.
The Capitals are bizarre. Ovechkin leads the team in points…with 14 total. They’ve had some of their top prospects finally see action like Hendrix Lapierre, Alexander Alexeyev, and Connor McMichael (who Dallas might have taken in Harley weren’t available in 2019 given what Joe McDonnell had to say about him) all getting proper minutes. Doesn’t make sense, right? Well that’s because you haven’t heard of Charlie Lindgren, who has a .928 save percentage in eight games, and is 10th in goals save above expected. Goaltending; it’s the thing that make good teams look bad, and bad teams look good.
So yea. Don’t expect a high-scoring affair tomorrow.
That 3rd period penalty on Steel left me flabbergasted. Completely unacceptable by the officials. I know it's not the reason they lost, but it feels like a major reason why they didn't win. Massive momentum shift from being in the attacking zone to on their heels vs a hungry team in a tie game.
The guy I wanted to see scooped up, even if it meant having a three goalie rotation with Wedgie, so Dallas could basically corner the market on Lakeville, MN for life?
Nah, Never heard of him.