Game 3 Stray Observations (First Round): Dallas wins 2-1 to beat Colorado yet again in overtime

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Dallas has engineered something incredible. A clean slate, really. With the stakes at their highest, not only have they stricken that regular season losing streak from the record (well, unofficially), but they’ve outplayed Colorado at American Airlines Center and beyond. While they’re losing the possession battle (47 percent share of shot attempts), their expected goal share is positively tilted: 61 percent in Dallas’ favor, and a 25-16 edge in high danger chances through two games.

The question going into Game 3 was always gonna be about two things: whether Jared Bednar could adjust with better matchups and line combos, and whether the last two games represented that so-called clean slate as opposed to Dallas emptying the tanks.

We received to answer to both: Bednar had no response to Pete DeBoer’s adjusted attack (more on that later this week), and Dallas still has plenty left.

It’s been a strange series for all the right reasons for Stars fans. We all expected Dallas to leave a little bit of their regular season selves in the postseason. That hasn’t happened. We all expected Colorado to look consistently dangerous. That also hasn’t happened. Instead the Stars have continued to tighten their control, with all the needed ingredients for a playoff winner: aggression, intelligence, and yes, quite a bit of drama.

The best sign, for me at least, is that the progress has felt linear. Dallas looked fine in Game 1. They looked great in Game 2. In Game 3, they looked adjusted. Instead of maintaining the impossible pace of overtime from the previous contest, the game slowed to a crawl. This really felt like the Stars at their most tactical; realizing they needed to switch things up to keep Colorado guessing, they did exactly that.

First period

What seemed clear to me in the first period is that both teams were still feeling Game 2. As I wrote after that night, that game really felt like two teams emptying the tanks. It’s no wonder the opening stanza felt like an eternity of whistles, offsides, and various penalties (inasmuch as they counted as penalties). Dallas definitely felt like the better team (shots were lopsidedly in favor of Dallas) but Valeri Nichushkin was the difference.

I saw Thomas Harley take the heat for this play. I don’t expect players to defend like they normally do with a 4-on-4 gamestate, so I don’t read too much into missed assignments — nor do I think it says all that much about Harley’s defense; Nichushkin is a tough player to defend one on one — but Matt Duchene looked like the real culprit in terms of mental turbulence.

Regardless, this play is classic Game Of Inches stuff. Dallas won the shot battle. Colorado struggled. But it was one great play in an uncommon gamestate that had Dallas down a goal through the first 20.

Jake Oettinger

Oettinger has been relatively quiet, but in a good way through this series thus far. Neither the reason for winning, nor losing, he’s been steady. That’s all you can ask of him. But in the second period in Denver, Dallas asked a little more of him and he answered. First with this one on Brock Nelson.

Then with this one on a Logan O’Connor breakaway.

While the series still has a ways to go, Dallas gets closer and closer towards stretching this round towards its limit, which is exactly what they would prefer as Miro Heiskanen’s inclusion gets closer and closer. Oettinger is a big part of that. And he wasn’t done filibustering until the last seconds when MacKinnon cut through Harley and Lyubushkin.

The penalty kill

I don’t have much to say here. Dallas’ penalty kill has been a strength all year and it continues to prevent teams from building momentum. I would say they’ve unlocked that ‘power kill’ seal of approval that usually belongs to Carolina at this point. On Colorado’s first man advantage, Dallas actually outshot them 2-1.

Needless to say, Mason Marchment will be buying them all dinner I presume.

Third period + overtime

There wasn’t a ton of action in the final stanza. There were only three record shots on net from both teams at even-strength, and seven total shot attempts. It was a slog. As was the officiating.

While I don’t like talking about officiating, its influence is genuinely being felt. This is less about calls going against Dallas, and more about consistency, which is always the case. But here I’m talking about the consistency set against the low bar we’re used to. A ton of plays were borderline, and they were borderline in critical minutes.

There were a lot of key figures in overtime. Tyler Seguin with the game winner, obviously. Mason Marchment, who giveth as much as he taketh. But full marks to Mikko Rantanen for his defensive work to beat Jonathan Drouin, and get the puck to Marchment. He’s not scoring goals the way fans would like, but he’s pulling his own weight.

The Colorado perspective

I don’t know how any Avs fan can feel good after tonight. The more games they drop, the closer Dallas gets to getting Heiskanen back. Their power play is a mess — which is even worse since it wasn’t that good in the regular season either; at least not in proportion to talent. You had home ice, and you had the energy of Gabriel Landeskog coming back. Every single theoretical advantage you had was nullified.

The Avs are still super talented. And it shouldn’t be lost on Stars fans that they literally have more wins (two, obviously) than minutes spent with a lead (1:02 to be specific). A 2-1 series lead is just that. If Colorado splits the series at home, then we’re on to the best of three. But nothing about Colorado’s game looks cohesive. Bednar doesn’t seem to have answers, MacKinnon has looked extremely sloppy with the puck, and Cale Makar has been more human than usual offensively. That means they’re either gonna fire back in Game 4, or they’ll be looking to go out with a whimper.