For one game — Tuesday — it looked like the Dallas Stars were back. Against a Kings team performing extremely well but struggling to get results, the Stars made them look like amateurs. Granted, this is a team that was coming off a massive road trip and on the tailend of a back to back, but hey — Dallas did the thing we've been waiting for them to do all season. They played a complete game. Tonight they didn’t even show up.
It’s important not to parse broad lessons from a single games. But it’s weird when you have such a comprehensive performance only two nights ago against a playoff team juxtaposed against such an anti-performance against a playoff team tonight. As such, it’s hard not to overreact with a negative impression in the same way it was hard not to overreact with such a positive one versus LA.
What was clear, seemingly every shift, was just how slow Dallas looked. Whatever you think of the Flyers, they’re fast, and relatively young, ranking 13th in ‘youth.’ This isn’t the kind of performance I’d expect to happen regularly for the Stars. If anything, it was perhaps high time that Dallas finally look like a team without Miro Heiskanen.
Perhaps that’s reassuring. Jake Oettinger looked stellar too, which also deserves mentioning. But outside of that there are no positives. Unless you’re a Flyers fan; because that Owen Tippett goal was almost (probably?) better than Logan Cooley’s preseason apple.
Oettinger, finding his groove
My piece for D Magazine today seemed to raise some eyebrows. I thought it was a fair treatment of Dallas’ goaltending. After all, what’s the common denominator here?
I’m not here to rehash any of this. For me, this is the whole point of analysis. You don’t write something that can be regurgitated from a box score, and you don’t wait to analyze the obvious. I could have been fair to Rick Bowness in 2021, and waited until the season ended, especially in November. But I wasn’t, not because I had an axe to grind, but because there was a story worth telling, and we didn’t need to wait until the metaphorical book was published to finish the chapters. That’s what interests me; forecasting and following the breadcrumbs. I want to be transparent in my assessment of performance, while recognizing that performance is a fluid situation. But a large enough sample has emerged to recognize a pattern. It didn’t show up against LA, or even tonight against Philly, but it’s something worth following precisely because it’s so unusual. Oettinger’s a very good goalie. That’s not the point. The point is whether or not this is his year to struggle, as all goalies eventually do. If he can defy that script in the sky, then that’ll be all the more impressive.
The Seguinlightenment continues
Seguin is on pace for 64 points, and a stack of high society’s worth of goals. It’s easy to call him a product of Matt Duchene, which I myself have argued. And it’s definitely worth considering just who exactly he is without Duchene. But tonight was yet another counterexample, with Seguin’s forecheck — something that Duchene can’t claim responsibility for — doing the work. Defensively, he’s been a workhorse. That’s the difference between Seguin and Benn; Seguin is still generating value when he’s not producing.
The defense pairs; oof
The defense pairs took one on the chin tonight, especially on the forecheck. Nils Lundkvist got bounced around a lot, which I’m sure the coaching staff paid close attention to. But Hakanpaa and Lindell ended up a 16 and 13 percent Corsi For for the tonight, getting out shot(attempted) 26 and 25 to 5 and 4, respectively. On a night where nobody looked good, they looked even worse. I take that back. Thomas Harley generated a lot, but even he was 46 percent in expected goal share. Actually I take that back. Dallas was outshot 43 to 16! Thomas Harley: (still) elite.
Hey Joe
We talked about this the other day, but that Joe Pavelski discussion might finally be on the table.
Granted, I think there’s a whole separate discussion about what this data means, but he’s got five points in his last nine games; far from his Dallas standard. If he remains off the top line, I’m gonna be really curious if he’s able to stabilize. (Especially next to Jamie Benn, who has struggled to control play from shift to shift.)
None of tonight’s performance is on Pavelski. Even if his point totals take a nosedive, I don’t think anybody is gonna care. Getting Pavelski in the playoffs, where he’s been a red light performer his entire career, is just house money. Especially if the Duchene line remains their dominant selves.
The Philadelphia Perspective
The Flyers have been a fascinating story. On the surface, they’re your classic overachievers; a team that has been basement dwelling for years, and basically shitcanned thanks to management that had all the assembled grace of a potato gun (cough, Chuck Fletcher). But they trimmed the fat, getting rid of Fletcher, Ivan Provorov, and Tony DeAngelo. They got Sean Courturier back, and their injection of youth — namely Tyson Foerster, Noah Cates, Bobby Brink (scratched), Morgan Frost, and now Jamie Drysdale — has paid major dividends.
It’s hard to imagine them missing the playoffs. They’re 12th in expected goals-for, and 12th in expected goals-against. Their power play sucks, royally. They’re dead last. But their penalty kill is 2nd in the league. It’s also one of the most dangerous units in history. Right now their only Metro competition is Pittsburgh and Washington, which seems like an easy enough obstacle given their struggles. For Stars fans, this means no Sean Walker. For Philly fans, it means a playoff birth. For a team so fresh off their rebuilding phase, it’s worth wondering just how far they’ll go.
This is a team with very little fat.
With almost three million in cap to work with come the deadline, you have to wonder if they decide ‘F it, let’s go.’
Scheduling note
I’m once again holding off on the paid post for the week. Sorry. Getting over the flu took a lot longer than I would have hoped, but I promise I will not let you down next week. As a show of good faith, here’s Ryan’s artwork (full body image) of Logan Stankoven!
I want to just forget last nights game but The Stars still had the same problem in that they are the worst team I have seen so far in getting the puck out of their zone. Last night the Flyers put a man on each corner of the blue line and just kept putting the puck back in the Stars zone. I mean at least one time they had 6 tries toget the puck out before it finally got out and then it didn’t get past the redline. Something needs to change and in a hurry.
Hope you’re feeling better. I’m in the midst of the flu and it sucks. Ugh. The Stars’ horrible game tonight didn’t help, either. Hoping we’re all better on the weekend!