Game 47 Stray Observations: Dallas beats Detroit 5-2. Just kidding: They beat them 5-4.
Just when I thought Dallas might give us another complete win.
I’m gonna leave what I initially started writing back when it seemed like there was no way Dallas could falter.
Original Draft
For the first time in a long time, Dallas looks like they’re within striking distance of the Central’s top spot. Now just two points away from tying the Winnipeg Jets, the Stars are back to being in the thick of it.
The game itself was kind of perfunctory. That may sound bad, but if anything Dallas hasn’t had enough “perfunctory” games; as in, games that clearly favor Dallas, but they end up either stealing two points, or struggle to secure them regardless of who they’re playing. Dallas was and is the better team. Detroit was and is a barely average team. (The standings say they’re competitive, but the East is bad this year, and Detroit’s underlying numbers are awful.) And Dallas won. Comfortably. Eureka!
That’s not sarcasm. I found the game to be reassuring. Their top players picked them up and put them down. The real test — there’s always some random caveat with this team — is gonna be about building off these games. This is a team that put on a show versus the mighty Kings and then, well, the less said before hurling pejoratives about that Philly game, the better.
Granted, I wouldn’t call this a great victory. Detroit hung around, and technically beat Oettinger four times, which makes the game thematically fitting: Dallas rarely finds that separation gear. But like I said; they need more of these perfunctory games. By the way, I have a theory about this. Why does it always feel like Dallas’ opponents are in the thick of it?
They can’t draw a damn a penalty to save their victory green lives. (From Jason Paul.)
It’s hard to separate yourself from the offensive pack when you don’t get enough man advantage opportunities. In case the differential doesn’t make it clear, Dallas doesn’t take a lot of penalties. However, they’re 30th in time spent on the power play per game at 4 minutes and 26 seconds, just above the Sharks and Islanders.
The Detroit-Scores-Three-(Technically)-In-the-Third Draft
I think I started to key in on something essential in the original draft: Dallas can’t separate. They’re winning games, but they’re winning them clinched against the theatre seat, dropping the popcorn. The combo of leaky even strength goaltending and inability to draw penalties is the perfect set up in some ways. Also, Detroit is a bizarre team who tends to play some bizarre AF games.* It’s also not difficult to pinpoint how it happened. Let’s start with the good.
Roope Hintz: Elite
Like I said this week.
How does an all-world player like Hintz routinely get overshadowed? It makes some sense, I guess. Pavelski, the aging veteran putting up consecutive career years, is an obvious story. Jason Robertson is an obvious story, as any young winger putting up 100 points will be. Hintz is neither a veteran, nor even necessarily young…and yet he’s one of Dallas’ most well-rounded players, the Stars’ main pivot, and he has Fuck You speed.
Hintz will probably never have the season Jason Robertson had. (Although Sam Reinhart is on pace for 103 points so never say never.) Being the literal middle-man for two stars in their own right is the only explanation for why not enough is said about what he does.
I posted his expected offense per hour in all situations on Twitter because I think it’s a unique stat, and sort of gets to the center of what you’re looking for in a forward: their ability, from shift to shift, to threaten offense in all situations. I noticed something interesting about his splits. The first is that he’s second in this metric at even strength. The player above annoys the shit out of me because it’s Nils Hoglander, and any GM not calling about him when he was in Vancouver’s doghouse not that long ago needs to get on their horse and ride. I would have moved heaven and earth to get him. Anyway—
He’s 20th in this metric if we only look at the power play. What I find interesting is that way more defenders rate highly in this metric than you’d expect. At even strength, not a single defender registers in the top 20. On the power play, there were six, all above Hintz no less. Anyway I just thought that was interesting.
Wyatt Johnston: Getting there
Johnston had his fingerprints all over this game. It was good to see him flush so many snakebites out of his system all at once. He’s had a fascinating season in that his linemates really worked against him, and the coaching staff really let them sit until the mold starting to form. Which is weird, because the top line didn’t exactly blast off. I’m not saying DeBoer should be criticized for not breaking up the top line sooner. They deserved the benefit of the doubt. But Dallas has plenty of quality of fourth liners he could have made the jump.
Instead DeBoer did the 11-dimensional chess thing and put him at wing. On the top line. It’s hard to argue with results. But I also think back to Matt Duchene, and how became a different player when he finally got moved to wing in Nashville; and how it opened up new elements of his game. It’s as if the concept of development can be applied however we want it, and we don’t have to choose the Do Jack Shit option!
Angry development complaints notwithstanding, I like it. Johnston has the kind of talents (namely his shooting, although it’s certainly not the only thing) that project well at wing (although he still takes the odd faceoff). And I’m glad to see the new-look top line get sustained playing time. It’s looking like it’s here to stay, which means we’re about to find out just how good Johnston really is.
About that Ryan Suter shift
I’m not gonna trample over a man’s grave — maybe a little — on this, but that was as bad an effort on a goal against I’ve seen by a Dallas Star all year. It should put into perspective exactly how good Heiskanen is, and hopefully what needs to change. I don’t know how you can look at that play and think this player deserves 20 minutes a night when Heiskanen gets back.
Dellandrea…buddy…
I’m sticking with Dellandrea. Maybe not ride-or-die level, but I’m there. I think a very good bottom six forward lurks beneath, and I wish he were given a proper stretch of games to just do what he does. But unlike Lundkvist, where his issues are much more nuanced, taking penalties is pretty black and white. If you’re playing minimal minutes, and take penalties with that, it’s gonna overshadow everything else. So Ty, good buddy: Don’t. Do. That.
About Jake Oettinger
Oettinger is not having an Oettinger year. We already know that though. The question is why. While I’m not the person to answer that, I do wonder what clues lie in the types of shots he’s letting through. His vision seems fine (bottom left chart) if the deflections he SHOULD be allowing but isn’t is any indication. But is there something going on with his movement (top left) that explains why shooters with full control are taking him to the woodshed? For a player who has dealt with injuries this year, it’s a potential breadcrumb.
The Detroit Perspective
Detroit is still in a playoff spot as of this writing, and their +10 goal differential is a good sign. But I would argue this has more to do with the East being wide open than actively being good.
It’s easy to see a way in though. Kane, Chiarot, and Husso are all out and the best candidates to catch them are the Islanders (not with Roy at the helm IMO), the Devils (maybe?) and the Penguins (a long shot, but look at their underlying numbers). So they don’t have the hottest list of candidates to push them out. And if Yzerman is feeling frisky (he signed Kane so the signs are there), they’re gonna have a lot of cap to work with at the deadline. Plus they have Simon GD’am Edvinsson in the AHL.
I’d bet on them not making it personally. While Hamilton is done for the season, once Jack Hughes gets back, it’s hard to imagine New Jersey just continuing to fall like that. The Penguins, I think, are actually good. They just an actually radioactive problem: a league worst power play. (If you’re interested in quality Penguins content at the ready, Danny Shirey is really good Substack follow.) Who knows. the Wings will probably hang around, but they’re either gonna be Pittsburgh or Florida last year, and it’ll come down to the eleventh hour. The exception being that they’re going on some magical run like Florida.
*Detroit played one of the most bizarre games of the last decade, and thankfully it culminated in a hilarious live reaction from Steve Dangle. (I actively hate Charlie Day screamy type humor, and Dangle reminds me of him, but for some reason, I don’t mind it. If you don’t like that type of humor, don’t watch, but there are some great lines. “Jack doesn’t even have his hat on!!”)
I still think about that game.
Jesus christ. I promise I'm either gonna hire an editor, or just re-read my shit 20 times over. Sorry, Stars fans.
Everyone wants one person, one player and one position to drop to the floor and kick but last night was a good showing that Jake isn’t Jake-ing like we all hold him to be (and that’s not abnormal, players have off times and the dude has had his handful of issues/injuries) and the D misses Miro and needs work. But what else is new!