Game 5 Stray Observations: Oettinger and the Stars beats Dubas and the Penguins 4-1
It started out a little hairy. Then it wasn't.
The 2023-2024 Dallas Stars have the results of a Cup contender, but not the performance of one. It was fitting then, that Game 5 was versus the Pittsburgh Penguins. Where the Penguins’ results are betraying their status, Dallas’ has validated theirs. Although it hasn’t been for a lack of trying. After giving up three shorthanded goals against the Flyers, the pressure — however modest so early in the season — was on for Dallas to push back and make a statement. They more or less did that with a 4-1 victory.
I wouldn’t call it a great performance so much as a great sign. Pittsburgh had them on the run in the first period. But a few things happened: Dallas settled in, the Penguins had jackshit to offer when Crosby and Malkin weren’t on the ice, and lineup tweaks ended up looking like potential long term solutions (which we’ll get to in the SOs).
The good news is that despite sputtering out the gate, they’re 4-1. In some ways, this is reassuring. It shows that the Stars don’t have to play a perfect game in order to win. Hell some teams have to be perfect just to keep from trailing. Not Dallas. Not only can they get away with imperfection, as they did against St. Louis, but they can get away with explosive diarrhea, as they did against Philadelphia.
Tonight they simply handled their business thanks to some extra sturdy work from Jake Oettinger. Jake Robertson, Thomas Harley, Evgenii Dadonov, and Wyatt Johnston were the goal scorers, in that order.
Anything else? Always.
Stray Observations
Jake Oettinger continues his quiet (hell of a) run
Oettinger was on another planet in period 1. It wasn’t a shooting gallery in the first, but Oettinger was a brickwall in the areas he shouldn’t have been asked to save to begin with.
Can’t blame him for the goal against. Neither Thoams Harley nor Jani Hakanpaa played Pittsburgh terribly well.
Right now Oettinger is credited with saving three goals above expected per Evolving-Hockey, 12th overall behind Vancouver’s Casey DeSmith. And that’s not even counting the Pittsburgh game. I’m not good with goalie observations, but his lateral movement looks better than ever. We know he’s good. He’s aiming much higher with his early season play so far.
Power play notes
Dallas’ power play has been bizarre through the first handful of games. If they’re not struggling to penetrate the zone, they’re struggling to shoot. And if they’re not doing either one of those, they’re defending. They haven’t just allowed the most shorthanded goals on the man advantage (oddly enough, Carolina shares the “top” of this list), but they’re also 25th in shot attempts allowed. Obviously, the team has too much firepower to stay silent but it remains a serious flaw. Pittsburgh doesn’t have some all-world PK unit so what the hell is this?
The Mason Marchment problem solved?
At last we got an answer to the Marchment problem. Halfway into the second period it looked like DeBoer had enough and stuck him on a line with Radek Faksa and Craig Smith.
I like it.
Marchment plays a hardnosed game fitting for what Faksa provides, and Smith is a toolsy-enough offensive forward that their effort will be rewarded. To me the most interesting consequence is what this does with the other two lines. By reuniting Dellandrea with the Johnston line, do they rekindle their modest flame? By sticking Dadonov with Seguin and Duchene, does that unlock their dormant chemistry? It’s not the kind of thing Nill or Gaglardi want to see, but at this point it’s not about the money. That’s a summer problem.
Matt Duchene
It was good to see Duchene finally record a point. I don’t think he’s looked bad. He just hasn’t looked fully functional. If that sounds passive aggressive it’s not meant to. I always go back to the fact that Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin are not a thing, and Dallas needs to stop making it a thing. Because of that, I find it hard to hold their Third Man too accountable. His breakthrough will come eventually. Maybe Tuesday night was a start.
The Thomas Harley-Jani Hakanpaa connection
I don’t know what these two truly have long term, but they’re literally the top shot attempt differential defense pairing in the league right now at a 67 percent Corsi For. In terms of expected goal share, they’re 15th, at 62 percent. How much of that is Hakanpaa riding Harley’s coattails I don’t know, but they both appear to have at least some chemistry.
Ty Dellandrea draws in over Sam Steel
I’ve gone to bat for Dellandrea because I just think he needs the icetime. He didn’t stand out much, but his forecheck started to come alive again once he was back on his old line. I wouldn’t mind seeing him stick around. While the conventional wisdom is that he was a product of Benn and Johnston, as I argued when he was signed, I don’t think the evidence presents a convincing case. What’s unfortunate is that Steel did nothing wrong to draw out. Nill may not be coming for Marchment, but the fans are. And you know what? They’re not wrong. (Even though Marchment currently grades out as one of their best defensive forwards: 2nd in unblocked shots allowed, 2nd in shot attempts against, and top 4 in expected goals against. Just saying.)
The Pittsburgh Perspective
The reason why I tend to be critical of Dubas is because it’s bizarre to see so many smart people be so uncritical of someone just because they perceive them as part of their ‘tribe.’ Dubas an analytics guy? Looks like he got his job the same way everyone else does; because of his family. That’s not to say he’s not qualified. But what about his resume separates him from other GM’s other than that he spoke at an analytics conference one time? Like I said. He’s good for the game, better than some of his peers, and I love what he did for Toronto’s development program. But let’s focus on the reality, not the perception.
I wouldn’t expect any one person to undo the absolute pyre of corpses Ron Hextall left Dubas with in Pittsburgh. But the move for Erik Karlsson always felt odd because well, the Penguins missed the playoffs last year. This is a team that missed the playoffs with an aging core. Their bottom six is absolute dogshit, and their coach — which Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette does a really good job of chronicling — is already at Defcon 5. Adding Karlsson seemed like the play for a team like Dallas. Not Pittsburgh.
Granted, they didn’t give up much to get him. But while Crosby and Malkin still look like they have some in the tank, Dallas handed them their third straight loss of the season, placing them second to last in the Metro just above a Capitals team that appears to be performing the miraculous achievement of intentionally and unintentionally tanking at the same time.
Teams like Columbus and Philadelphia should falter in time. But the Penguins are clearly a cut below New York, New Jersey, and Carolina. Which puts them right where they were last year: in the mushy middle.
Tough times in Penguins. Less so in Dallas.
Oetter saves above expected at 12 doesn't give a great view since he only played 3 games for that 12th ranking. I almost feel any stat he's outside of the top 10 (and really top 5) doesn't reflect his skills enough.
Does PDB have the leash to put Marchment on the 4th line full time? In game decisions are one thing, but telling your GM & Owner that their $4M guy is a 4th liner? I feel like he's going to have to go line blender a few more games before he can ink his name there at the start of a game.
Dellandrea on the 2nd line I like in the short term at least. It is a known quantity that lets the team figure out who the 3rd is for the 3rd and 4th lines. Plug in Smith, Dadonov and Steel in both slots and figure out what you like or if one guy really clicks or if you have different looks you can dress to suit the team you see next. I also like that PDB didn't start messing with things 10 minutes into the first game, but 2 weeks into the season. Flexibility is good especially if the team isn't as healthy as last year.
I don't care if Jani is the sidecar to Harley if it works. If this is Miro-Roman 2.0, then fantastic. Sure he may not soar, but a solid pair like that for $3M for the set is found money. The biggest concern I'd have is if the team thinks Hak is they key here and re-signs him to a bigger contract than he is worth (AKA a Methot or a Lindell deal)
Also Thoams Harley? Miskeys are still better than being drafted by the wrong name. Thankfully his name is slightly more unique than Stephen Johns.
For 2 periods Daddy looked like he could be the glue for Duch and Seguin. Let’s keep him there for awhile and find out.
I’d also like to see Steel rotated onto Johnston/Benn’s line. Remember last year at MN for awhile Steel was used between Zuc and Kiprisov so he’s used to playing with higher skilled players.
Step 1 was demoting Marchment. Step 2 is putting him on the popcorn rotation with Delly/Steel/Smith.
Gotta figure out how to start better...
“Otter to the rescue”... new theme song!