Game 6 Stray Observations: Dallas' First Regulation Loss of the Year is to the Leafs Because Of Course It Is

I mean what did you expect?

Why so late to write a recap? Because Gavin Spittle was kind enough to invite to me his Spits and Suds podcast where I did a postgame recap.

There’s a little overlap between what I said on the podcast and here, so if you prefer audio and something on the go, or both, I’m giving you options.

I hate this matchup. I’ve always hated it. It doesn’t matter if Dallas is good and Toronto is bad, or vice versa. It doesn’t matter if Jason Robertson’s brother has yet to crack the NHL lineup consistently. It doesn’t matter if Dallas is perfect on the PK, or if a third-string goalie is in net. Expect the unexpected, like a low-scoring defensive affair between two offensive teams, Nick Robertson scoring 90 percent of his NHL goals in one game versus Dallas, or the Stars getting goalie’d by Joseph Woll.

Razor even illuminated this by accident, noting how Dallas went 1-for-11 on the power play versus Toronto while Toronto went 1-for-7 last year, despite the fact that these were two elite man advantage teams. The Leafs handed Dallas their first regulation loss, ruined a perfect penalty kill, and they did it all with John Klingberg.

The good news is that the unexpected included at least one positive: Stars whipping boy Mason Marchment getting the proverbial monkey off his back. Outside of Marchment scoring and Scott Wedgewood playing pretty well, there wasn’t a lot to discuss. Both teams played opportunistically, and somewhat conservatively. Overall Dallas had the edge. Just not where it counted.

I’ve seen a lot of theories as to why that is. “They’re figuring out their team chemistry.” Meh. This statement isn’t exactly a fart noise, but the Stars added three players to the roster and played only two of those tonight. Does anyone think the addition of two players is any more extraordinary than literally every other national hockey league team? Dallas is a veteran team too. That’s not to say there isn’t truth to that. Just that I don’t think it wields the kind of powerful influence that fans are claiming.

If not that, then what? It’s the contradiction I always talk about: a good offensive team is not necessarily a team with a good offensive process. Right now the Minnesota Wild are 2nd in even strength goals. Does that mean they’re a good offensive team, or maybe a team gassed up by a high shooting percentage? Unsurprisingly the Wild are 3rd in shooting percentage at even strength. Which brings me to Dallas. Last year they were 13th in GF and 17th in expected goals at even strength. The difference is that their power play was humming along whereas this year it has yet to get going.

That’s not to say Dallas is secretly a bad offensive team, or suffers from some sort of even strength crisis. Just that they’ve always been a little naked at even strength. Outside of their top line, their depth is a strength, but nobody really dominates below the top line the way Tavares and Nylander have the ability to do below Matthews and Marner. And literally half of their blueline actively sabotages their rush attack, which explains why they were only average in shots created off the rush last year; weak breakouts meant weaker transitions through the neutral to create cleaner, and more consistent entries.

Plus Toronto is 16-4 versus Dallas since 2011. Was there anything else? Of course.

Stray Observations

Scott Wedgewood rebounds

Like I’ve said before: I like Wedgewood. I think to be a backup, and remain consistent for such an inconsistent position is a rare thing. It reminds me of Anton Khudobin’s career before he leveraged that experience into a deep Cup run for Dallas in 2020. I talked more about this with Gavin, and why I liked Wedgewood in over Jake Oettinger so give that a listen.

Spinning the forward wheel

This may have been the biggest story of the night. We got it all: Marchment with Faksa, Johnston with Smith — scratch that. No we didn’t. In an effort to get things going, DeBoer busted out the line blender. But he still has yet to split up the Roope Hintz line. Why will Dallas exhaust every single possibility except the one that has potential to lift up all lines?

I actually loved the lines suggested on Twitter.

First let met clarify: I don’t think the forward lines need to undergo some massive change. I think it’s too early to overreact to evolving chemistries. Benn-Johnston-Smith looked pretty damn spicy in their limited time together.

But if the problem is that the offensive lines aren’t firing on all cylinders, then WHY’TF avoid doing the one thing you know can make an impact? I’ll say it once more: this is not an argument to split up the Hintz line long term. Rather, if your point is to provide a spark, then why not include everyone? It’s like changing guitarists but never including the most talented one to see how his riffs mesh with the new sounds.

Robertson-Seguin-Pavelski

Marchment-Hintz-Duchene

Benn-Johnston-Smith

Steel-Dellandrea-Dadonov

Yay or nay, Stars fans?

(I know Faksa exists. I don’t care. This is just an exercise in optimal lines using the NHL roster.)

Craig Smith’s surge

Smith has always been a solid, underrated player. It’s worth remembering that this guy scored 20 or more goals five times (once pace for a sixth in 2020) in Nashville. That’s a team that for many years had zero offensive weight, stuck in a Trotz system, and no Stars. They were always the product of their blueline. What’s interesting is that he never really slowed down if you look at his goal-scoring from shift to shift.

Or I should say he never hit a wall. Last year I think could reasonably be chalked up to injuries, no good spot in Boston, and splitting time between two teams. Needless to say, he brought way more movement to that Johnston line than I expected. Smith is more of a shooter than a playmaker, but Dallas may have something here if they stick with it. Which, if you’ve been reading this place, know we’ve been here for Smith since day one.

Nils Lundkvist continues to outplay Esa Lindell

It’s not that Lindell is more of a defensive player, and less of an offensive one. It’s that he looks like he’s being outplayed by a 23 year old. Saad Yousuf talked about the concern-o-meter the other day, mentioning Lindell’s play, and that was my first thought: Lundkvist simply looks like the stronger player. I think I probably already mentioned this the other day, but I just get tired of hearing how Lindell is “just different.” He’s paid $5.8 million a year. If that contract is just for his PK minutes than boy are a ton of blueliners getting shafted for not getting a bonus on their PK minutes.

Also, Lundkvist keeps looking more and more confident. I love it.

Roope Hintz is still fast

He made Mitch Marner looked slow. That’s the end of the observation.

The Toronto Perspective

The Leafs looked dangerous. For all the talk about losing the Beautiful Mind of Kyle Dubas, Treliving’s additions appear to be paying off*. Bertuzzi, and Domi looked good, and so did John Klingberg. Gavin mentioned hearing fans disparage Klingberg and I can’t help but ask: who are you? For years this dude was underpaid, and overperformed. Yes, he hit a wall, and began to decline. But he gave Dallas his best years with a Radek Faksa contract. If you can’t appreciate the dude, then I don’t know what to tell. (Is it just me or are these same people probably major Lindell fans?)

Something else worth noting: I used to think that there were two forwards who Miro Heiskanen had trouble defending consistently. MacKinnon and Eichel. We can add Willian Nylander to that list. I know Stars fans don’t want to hear this, but Heiskanen had to pick his teeth up last night. Nylander has always been one of the game’s most underappreciated offensive talents. In terms of raw talent, he’s up there with the elite. His line with John Tavares brutalized Dallas in the first half of the game.

*Ok, that fourth line with Ryan Reaves is absolute dogshit. Dallas had their lunch every time they were on the ice.

Nothing is close to Dallas, Steve?!

Please don’t attack Steve Dangle for this. But when talking about Toronto’s road trip he mentioned how isolated this part of Texas is, and how “nothing is close to Dallas.”

Listen. I don’t even particularly like Dallas (whoa whoa whoa, calm down; just saying, I’m a Fort Worth kid through and through). But even I know this is some geographic BS. Sure, there’s nothing in the panhandle (no offense people from there; I love you all) but even the small satellite cities at least have burgers. Plus Austin and San Antonio further south?

Since we’re talking geography, I have one subscriber in each of Delaware, Maryland, and Wyoming. Please show yourself so we can show ya’ll some love. Gavin’s story about unlikely fandom made me re-appreciate who fans are, and where they come from.