Game 61 Stray Observations: Colorado beats Dallas, 5-1
Dallas lost big. But it's not all bad news...just mostly bad news.
There was some positive to this game, but not a whole lot. I wouldn’t expect much on a back-to-back against an elite team like Colorado — but also, Dallas is supposed to be an elite team too. How well should an excuse hold up against a higher standard?
I don’t know. To be fair, it seemed like the Stars had plenty of chances. Problem is that Colorado had way more. In fact, the Avalanche had the lopsided edge in high danger chances with 10 to Dallas’ 4 in the first period. There’s certainly a story (a familiar one at that) about Jake Oettinger, but that’s what we call open floodgates, and in that respect, one failure (team defense) led to another (Oettinger’s glove hand). Plus this is Nathan MacKinnon we’re talking about…who has 98 points (!!!). Just an absolute psychopath.
Big pic: the loss puts Colorado two points behind Dallas, now pushing Dallas down to second in the Central behind Winnipeg (who beat St. Louis tonight). Nobody said the Central race would be easy. But I don’t think that’s what discerning Stars fans are worried about. They’re worried about the Stars getting destroyed like they did. The MacKinnon vs. Lindell-Hakanpaa pair isn’t going anywhere. Unless…
The trade deadline is next Friday, which makes whatever move or moves, plural, that Jim Nill has planned more critical than ever. Safe to say, whatever happens will be blueline-specific. There is something wrong with the forward group (which we’ll get to), but it’s not something they can necessarily change. If anything, whatever happens should require a lot of addition by substraction. While the focus is on Logan Stankoven, it’s important to remember that Mavrik Bourque was directly in Stankoven’s orbit. Imagine Dallas adding "another” Stankoven.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Onto the strays!
Logan Stankoven: elite
On September 19, 2023 I made a modest claim: Stankoven is NHL ready. Granted, I cheesed myself out with my own stupid sense of diplomacy, but it was emphatic enough.
I think he’s ready as an emerging player. I think it might not click for him right away, and he might not produce out the gate (lol: emphasis mine), but he would adjust in time. I look at the film, and his game looks like precisely the kind of work that gets better with higher quality linemates; not worse. I imagine his interlinking skills in an NHL context, and they are precisely what succeeds at the NHL level, “ready or not.”
This is not Alex Chiasson getting good bounces. This is a forward with complete command of his movement along the exterior and interior of the ice with the talent to control territory and finish plays.
I know the “Thomas Harley: elite” thing gets a lot of likes on Twitter despite it feeling a little like a shitpost, but I only said it because I had a feeling…that’s right, no graphs or histograms…just a feeling that Harley was and would be elite. That’s the feeling I get when watching Stankoven.
The “top” line
The most underreported story in Dallas is the borderline absence of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski. This is not a criticism of them on their own. Robertson is transforming into something else…possibly even something more. Hintz to me is still the tip of this offensive spear. But Pavelski is the real story. In terms of shift-to-shift impact, he’s having the worst season of his career.
It’s important to emphasize what this chart is focused on: it’s focused on his net rating from shift to shift, at even strength. It says nothing about his production, special teams, or his on-ice talents. This chart doesn’t suggest that he’s bad; it suggests that his production is held together by a thin thread. What happens when that last thread finally unravels? Much will be made about Oettinger, and the blueline, but seeing Colorado’s top line put the Stars in a blender while Dallas’ version trundled around should be just as eye-opening.
Colorado vs. Dallas’ blueline
I never understood why the injuries to Jani Hakanpaa and Nils Lundkvist was seen as a “big loss.” Maybe that’s a bit of a strawman, but here’s the thing: Hakanpaa has simply not been good enough, and Lundkvist is not good enough for the coaches. Derrick Pouliot, and Joel Hanley may seem like significant downgrades but broadly speaking, I would say they’re not.
By all accounts Jim Nill is expected to get aggressive at the trade deadline. But I’m curious to know what that means. Are we talking aggressive, or just aggressive by hockey GM standards? (Don’t bring up Ryan Suter. He’s one of Dallas’ weak links, yes, but the team loves him and DeBoer will never scratch him.) Anything other than a borderline transformation doesn’t feel like it’ll be enough.
Tactics talk
If you didn’t get a chance to check out my talk with Jack Han, please do. Watching this Colorado game, I couldn’t help but feel like the Avalanche were playing more tactically than usual, overloading the slot to prevent Dallas’ usual entries. It’s just one game, and my eyes could be deceiving me, but any potential seven-game series between the two will involve quite a few headgames.
Et tu, Otter?
I’ve already talked about it. Oettinger didn’t have a good night, but he hasn’t a good season. One great game won’t reverse a trend just like one bad night won’t confirm it. I don’t know what to say other than that even the best goaltenders are owed down years. Do I think Oettinger is gonna be the reason Dallas won’t win the Cup this season? No. It’s possible he’ll factor into a series loss if they do, but consider the things we’ve talked about: the top line underperforming and a blueline that even when healthy, barely outperforms its AHL replacements — kind of hard to point the finger at Oettinger when the team still clearly has holes. Again, this team is still a contender. And I don’t want that to get lost in something of an overreaction to one loss.
But the holes are there. The rest is on Nill.
Dellandrea + 2nd round pick for Tanev
Bring Bourque up while Seguin is injured and get Steel off of that line
Waive Hanley since no team will pick him up so close to the TDL
Both Stankoven and Bourque were ready in December and both players improves the team.
Isn't that the goal?
Just. Do. It.
Ok I am not sure how to say this other than Ottinger has not been elite much this year. Mostly he has been no more than middle pack. I hear people say the defense let him down but I see the same thing happening on the other end and those goalies are not giving up goals. Wedgewood out played Ottinger while he was in those 10 or so games he played . Put him back in. Let Ottinger get his head right or work with the goalie Coach and try to get him back on track. The other thing is the first line last year they were one of the top 3 ones in the NHL. Robo isn’t even going to be a point a game guy this year if something doesn’t change quick. An$ don’t try to blame it on Joe because don’t see him as being any different than last year. Rant over