Game 67 Stray Observations: Florida scores three in the third to beat Dallas 4-3
Everything looked great...until it wasn't.
You win some, you lose some.
That should be the biggest takeaway from Dallas’ 4-3 loss to Florida. That first period was maybe the Stars’ best all year. Not only did they end the opening salvo with a 1-0 lead, but they had the Panthers (top team in the NHL in case you hadn’t noticed) on the ropes. They were forcing Florida to defend, and take penalties, and everything seemed lined up — Dallas was getting goals, saves, and great performances…and it wasn’t enough.
There’s something to be said for the natural ebbs and flows of a game between two great teams (whether or not you think Dallas qualifies, they’re 5th in the league). You think Ali didn’t take any shots to beat Frazier? That’s a little much given how deep the quest is for the Cup, but you get the point. Great teams can make any roster look problematic because games like that are won or lost in the moments rather than the broad totals of plus-minus, shot possession, and Game Score.
And that’s where Dallas lost: in the moments. Or rather: in the final period. Dallas played a masterful first two periods. And it really was. I thought the Stars played their best period of the year in the first, and had an even better second.
Then it went to shit.
There are a lot of reasons why: Mason Marchment’s penalty, Jani Hakanpaa’s play on the penalty kill, Jake Oettinger, etc. But for now, let’s consider the big pic: Dallas lost a close game in which they played well versus the best team in the league. That won’t be a consolation for most fans, but the Stars continue getting closer and closer to a first round matchup with Nashville, which is a good thing! (Less of a good thing that they’re technically more likely to play Colorado in the first round.)
Joe Pavelski on a heater
We’ve talked about Pavelski, and I want to re-emphasize my analogy of a fighter losing their power last, because I think it’s fitting while also be useful in protecting from the anti-analytics crowd. Bad numbers do not = bad player. They simply identify bad impacts on team shots from shift to shift; a point that deserves emphasis given that Pavelski had two turnovers in one shift early in the game, plus a few more in the third where he seemed to struggle controlling the puck at times. (I’m glad I didn’t tweet about it otherwise I would have been roasted) The thing is, Pavelski doesn’t need to be great in the playoffs. He just needs to be dangerous. And he still is.
Also, what a postgame quote.
Robertson and Hintz looking more like Robertson and Hintz
I thought this was one of their best games as a duo in some time. Granted, unlike some, I don’t think they’re having a bad season. I just think they’re failing to dominate as a group like they used to. However, if tonight was any indication, they’re on the mend. Hintz in particular was as dangerous as he’s looked all year. It’s all the more impressive given the fact that Florida is a fast team, and even they seemed to have trouble with Hintz’ flow. If you ever wanted to question the defensive “analytics” of Robertson, this game was a template. It’s easy to get caught up in Defense = Defensive Zone Work, but Robertson did a lot this game in the neutral zone to keep plays going back the other way.
Endless Forward (Logan Stankoven)
I’m always talking about Stankoven (and I’ll do it some more as I’ll be on the Spits and Suds podcast later), so rather than write about him, I’m just gonna leave these excellent analysis of Stankoven by two actual experts (Dimitri Filipovic and Darryl Belfry) here.
Hakanpaa and Suter: a problem?
Listen. I don’t like them together. Because neither can break the puck out of the zone, their worst traits are on consistent display. Suter’s hurried chip along the boards is a good example. But whether we like it or not, special teams play a major factor. The fact that Suter and Hakanpaa play on the PK is the reason, and the reason alone that Lundkvist will never draw in, and why the coaching staff is willing to live with their consistent mistakes. It’s not the most convincing argument — how do you weigh even strength efficiency versus special teams safety? — but there’s at least a logic. I’m not one to give up on an armchair battle, but coaches will always err on the side of caution, and I’m willing to accept it for now. I have a hard time believing a sheltered third-pair will single(double)-handedly lose them a playoff series.
Editor’s note: Yes, I wrote this before the end of the game when Dallas seemed destined for comfortable win. The end result doesn’t necessarily change things, but it certainly changes the tone of the argument. Another thing I’ll say in defense of critical fans: in addition to the fact that we need to stop talking about playing special teams like it’s an a priori good thing. What happens within those minutes should be judged just as thoroughly as what happens at even strength.
However, I think the Hakanpaa vs. Lundkvist debate will come down to what Jim Nill should have done at the deadline, which was to make an additional move. Even the best teams aren’t perfect, so I don’t want to go down that rabbit hole just yet, but I’m right there with those who feel like a perfect world was Nill making a hockey trade for a third pairing defender — someone the coach could trust over Lundkvist, but also someone that we know can be effective in a third pairing role. It’s a moot point, but it still needs to be said.
The Florida perspective
I mentioned on Twitter that I’ve never seen a team move with such speed in tandem. Even when players bobble pucks, it never seems to slow them down. It’s because of that speed that they’re the top team in the NHL, not to mention, one of the best quality possession teams.
If you believe the Stars have what it takes this year, don’t be shocked if the team left standing in the East is Florida. They did it last year, after all. However, their penalties have been more than a problem just this game, but all year.
The road (err, home) ahead
Dallas has an interesting schedule with New Jersey and LA in the immediate crosshairs. Those are both good tests in many ways to see how much of this game was a hiccup. But for most people, it’ll be a test to see how well Jake Oettinger can play down the stretch.
My in-the-wild reaction is that Dallas really gave up some grade A chances. But also, goalies need to make the tough save too. My personal thoughts on Oettinger is that if he breaks out, it’s gonna happen gradually. As I’ve said before, even the best goalies give you bad seasons. Just look at Florida’s netminder for what a turnaround can look like. So evaluating him from game to game feels moot, at least for me.
Oettinger will be Dallas’ most important player when the playoffs begin. But whether he can retain his previous form will be up to the hockey gods. It’s the only x-factor Dallas has to worry about.
Speaking of PK, why does Hakanpaa still gets to go on the first PK unit instead of Tanev? This when the opposition is usually sending their Top power play unit.
We traded for the best defensive D there was at the TDL and we are still sending an AHL D in these crucial moments.
And don’t tell me it’s because of the chemistry between Hakanpaa and Lindell. I cannot believe that Vets like Tanev and Lindell would not adapt quickly together in PK situations.
I'm not sure how anyone blames Otter for this one. Three deflected goals against that he had covered if they weren't deflected.