How Does It Affect the Dallas Stars? The 2024 NHL Draft Bonanza Edition

Rankings, fallers, honorable mentions, moral drama, and draft philosophy!

It doesn’t seem like much. What good is this year’s draft when they only have three picks? My opinion: really good, thanks to having a first rounder in a very deep first round.

To recap, Dallas traded away this year’s second round pick as part of the Chris Tanev trade. This year’s third rounder went to Nashville for last year’s third rounder when they drafted Brad Gardiner (don’t look up the stats on the other available forwards like Luca Cagnoni and Denver Barkey; and no this is not a hindsight complaint). The fourth rounder is residue from the Vladislav Namestnikov deadline add. And lastly: this year’s six rounder is the other pick that went to Nashville so that Dallas could move up in last year’s draft.

With so few picks Dallas will need to make the draft count. But before we get into the weeds — my top 32, whether Dallas should move up, the Trevor Connelly situation, and honorable mentions (a lot of players have potential to help Dallas beyond those I’ve profiled IMO, even at 29th overall) — let’s talk about that old, artificial BPA vs. Need debate.

It’s time to throw it out.

At the Tier 1 level of the draft, I think it’s loosely instructive. For example, if you’re picking in the top 15, and someone like Berkly Catton or Zeev Buium are still there, yet you’re not sure about picking them because you already have a lot of offensive centers or puck movers — then yes, you’re doing this wrong. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a reach in this draft who might go higher in retrospect (Alfons Freij and Adam Jiricek are good examples), that someone rated higher won’t go lower in retrospect (Carter Yakemchuk and Zayne Parekh?) or that Catton and Buium are sure things; just that if you’re not sure about the future, you should be sure about your philosophy. So to the extent that BPA vs. Need is a worthwhile discussion, it’s worthwhile for the highest tiers where it’s patently obvious where players should broadly rank.

Dallas is not picking in that tier where it’s obvious who the best player available is. So they’re well-positioned, and in a pretty sweet spot: there are a lot of right-handed defenders of various profiles and talents, and talented wingers to pick from at the end of this first. This draft doesn’t have a lot of star power, but it’s incredibly deep kind of like 2014, except instead of a bunch of forwards with potential, it’s heavy on quality defenders. As I mentioned on Twitter, it’s unique in that a lot of the higher ranked players have extremely low floors, and players late in the first round are the opposite — high floors, relatively low ceilings.

So I’m excited. Granted, I always am for this stuff, but this year carries a little more weight because Stars fans have never been more confident that Jim Nill and his scouting staff won’t be able to find a quality player even this low in the draft, just as they have in recent years with Jason Robertson, Logan Stankoven, and Mavrik Bourque.

But first, let’s get serious.

A digression: the Trevor Connelly story

In my rankings I’m leaving out clear-cut first round talent in Trevor Connelly.

If you don’t know his story, you should. It’s fantastic reporting from Katie Strang and Corey Pronman. While the swastika incident will be the thing highlighted by most people, the Connelly story is not about one incident but an identifiable pattern. There’s the credible accusation of him using a racial slur, urinating on a classmate’s property, punching teammates (corroborated by multiple parents on more than one occasion), slew footing, and getting ejected from the U18 Worlds for an illegal hit to the head. These actions aren’t just problematic; he was kicked off multiple teams for his behavior — teams that had a vested interest in keeping their most talented forward.

Jim Nill is unique in that part of the Dallas Stars culture is treating people the right way. Yes, that narrative is slightly gassed when framed against the Horseshit Saga but Nill himself has never been described as anything other than the worthy personification of Manners Maketh Man. Drafting Connelly, which The Athletic has Dallas inexplicably doing in one of their Mock Drafts, just seems like an unnecessary defenestration against the ethical house that Nill has built.

There is definitely a path forward for Connelly. But it runs deeper than “let’s draft him anyway and hope he changes.” I know some will be quick to point out well, we all did stupid things as kids! First, piss off — I guarantee you I did dumber things than you as a teenager. Second, not all us were million-dollar talents as kids, which is why stories like Connelly are actually few and far between. In fact, the history of ‘headcases’ at the draft has awful averages: Tony DeAngelo, Josh Ho-Sang (Sean’s story about Ho-Sang is a must-read), Kirill Kabanov, Mitchell Miller, Ryan Merkley, Logan Mailloux and Oliver Kylington. That’s most of them and most either washed out or are on their way. That’s not to group their indiscretions as the same; only to point out the broad history. (I’d also argue that anyone doing this modus ponens style of half-assed checking for logical consistency in a debate that can’t be reduced to a tetris of syllogisms isn’t actually interested in a good faith discussion; they simply want to leverage the echo chamber in their favor.)

Because of that, I want to emphasize that this is my personal opinion about drafting Connelly. Connelly’s story is about a lot of things, but if I’m a scout, I’m not looking at Connelly like he’s beyond redemption or a bad kid. Hockey culture shoulders the bulk of this problem too, with their “the NHL is not development league” BS (just ask Winnipeg if this is a sensible mantra). It’s hard to imagine a way forward for him if the adults themselves can’t show him a mature mirror through which he can grow. That doesn’t mean he needs an angel on one shoulder at all times. Moral perfection is a useless concept. But development is not, and he’s gonna need more than most.

Here’s the other piece: in-the-wild, I’m looking at him within his cohort. There are plenty of talented players who deserve to be picked, and very very few of them sabotaged their own privilege, abandoned multiple teams with selfish behavior, or gave me pause to question their dedication. Just like Kevin Costner, if I had to choose between ‘Bo Callahan’ (Trevor Connelly), ‘Vonte Mack’ (E.J. Emery), or ‘Ray Jennings’ (Jett Luchanko, who feels like the next Stankoven IMO — we’ll talk more about him in the later), I know who tops my list.

The draft is difficult enough as is. The point is to pick someone who adds answers to your team’s future; not someone who adds questions.

“Stick to sports will you!”

My bad!

If you’re not into the draft but wouldn’t mind hearing from the best public draft minds talking a little bit about their process and scouting in general, I definitely recommend giving this a watch.

Also, Bob McKenzie is back for the 2024 draft (final rankings)! Bob’s rankings are usually pretty on point, as he’s the best insider the business ever has. I mention that because it’s interesting to note that he also doesn’t have Connelly in the first round, which I think reflects what the scouting community largely thinks of his pattern of behavior.