How Does It Affect The Stars? Dylan Larkin on the Department of Player Safety, Alexis Lafrenière "learning" from being benched, and the 2024 World Juniors
But first: previewing tonight's Blues' game, a state of the victory green union through 32.
Dallas is in action versus the St. Louis Blues tonight. It’s been a bizarre series, with both contests going past regulation. The Stars took one, then the Blues returned fire. Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson were the shootout heroes in the season opener while Colton Parayko was the overtime hero in the December 16 bout.
By any measure, the Blues should be at or near the bottom of the standings. Per Micah Blake McCurdy’s model, at even strength, only six teams allow less expected goals-against per hour. Only four teams generate less expected goals-for per hour. They’re a minus-11 in the West.
And yet they’re only one point away from the final wild card spot.
The hope from St. Louis is that they’ll get the proverbial ‘new coach bump’ from interim head coach Drew Bannister. So far, it’s looking good. The Blues are 4-1 since firing Craig Berube. But how much of that is just noise? How much of that is, for example, Jordan Kyrou bouncing back finally, or the Blues shooting hot as a whole? (They scored 13 goals at even strength since firing Berube, which is tied for 7th during that stretch.)
The new coach bump is a real phenomenon of an otherwise hollow thesis. Yes, teams get better after firing their coaches. Since 2018, the difference between the prior coach’s record and the new coach is a points percentage of .535 versus .446. That’s a significant bump. But it’s drawing data from a flawed sample size; in this case, the flawed sample of collecting only data on coaches headed for the axe. John Hynes took over for Dean Evason. But who is the better coach? The jury’s still out on Bannister, but I have a hard time believing the coach bump is gonna produce a playoff birth. Unlike the Blues, Minnesota, Calgary, and Edmonton who are right behind them, their underlying metrics are a lot more impressive.
As for Dallas, their blueline will continue to dominate the fandom bandwidth and for good reason. It’s. Not. Good. Enough.
Looking at Dallas’ chances allowed off zone entries last year compared to this year, and seeing the massive dropoff, I don’t think there’s any one specific cause. But I do think there’s probably something to the fact that this year time last year, Miro Heiskanen was on his strongside playing with Colin Miller; and to the fact that the Stars had three pairs they could roll out and not shelter. Meanwhile, Nils Lundkvist and Joel Hanley barely get cameos when they’re in.
“But they’re first in the Central.”
Part of my job, at least the way I see it, is figuring out the climate versus the weather. In this case, we might say that the standings = the weather. But if I were to analyze the weather, then not only would I tell you that everything is okay because Dallas is first in the Central, but I’d also tell you the following:
Toronto is really good. They’re second in the Atlantic!
Carolina is really bad. They’re not even in a playoff spot!
Vancouver is the best team in the West. They’ve collected the most points!
You don’t even have to dig into any fancy stats to know how talking head-level shallow these claims are. You can just follow some of the contradictions, like looking at how many goals Toronto has allowed, Carolina’s save percentage, and Vancouver’s shooting percentage.
The Stars have picked up more wins than losses. It’s sunny outside! But will it still be sunny by Game 82? If the rain’s coming, when, and for how long? Those are my questions, and the answers are what this place is for.
Dylan Larkin, spitting fire at George Parros
“It's hard to feel safe out there.”
That was Dylan Larkin last week, reflecting on the Ottawa sequence that injured him, but that also led to David Perron’s suspension. The rest of Larkin’s quote is just as important.
“It's hard to know how to protect yourself. I truly believe that we have the best refs in the world in the sport of hockey...Our refs are good. I just think the message being sent down from the top—what is safe and what's not, how to discipline it—there's a lot of questions there, and it's kind of scary as a player."
For the most part, I think hockey fans recognize the Department of Player Safety ‘led’ by George Parros for what it is: an empty office. And I think most fans don’t want to see cheapshots in hockey. Sure, you have your Don Cherry types spouting off about hockey being too “soft” but nobody takes that position seriously.
The position people do take seriously is the one articulated by John Tortorella, and the other half of the Spits and Suds podcast, Craig Ludwig: teaching players how to take a hit. There’s nothing wrong with this argument. The problem is not with the logic, but with what it fixes. Would you see less injuries if players knew how to take hits better? Maybe. But how does teaching players how to better take hits fix the Give-A-Shit meter that’s been broken in the DoPS?
There’s never gonna be an easy fix, but the right laws can be moral messages in and of themselves. If you get ejected for an illegal hit — as Brandon Duhaime did to Thomas Harley — why isn’t that an automatic suspension as it is for leaving the penalty box?
There’s nothing tough about getting suckered, or learning how to take a cheapshot. Nobody tells prizefighters that they need to avoid DQ’s by learning how to get punched in the nuts. The NHL’s failure to establish a language for these violations explains why its own players have the language to so easily articulate why they don’t feel safe.
“I learned from (the benching)…”
That was New York Ranger winger Alexis Lafrenière on his benching from Gerard Gallant this time last year. There’s such an ad hoc logic to this — as if we would ever know what not benching him could do for his development — but what’s especially funny about this line is that Gallant is no longer there.
However, beyond my issue with why benching is only ever reserved for young players, and especially young offensive-oriented players, the reason I keep going back to this concept of development, is that more than just not making sense under the most basic scrutiny, the line “the NHL is not a development league” creates a culture that’s openly hostile to the idea of development. This poses its own challenge, which is that it prevents development from happening to veterans.
Lafrenière is particularly relevant to Dallas because arguably their best forward this year, Matt Duchene, is a case study in veteran development. Lafrenière struggled because that’s what young players do but also because it wasn’t until this year under Peter Laviolette that New York switched him from left to right wing, much like Duchene was switched from center to right wing under John Hynes in Nashville, and given much better partners (what a shocker; playing with Artemi Panarin has helped!). Three of Duchene’s best five seasons — in terms of individual expected goals per hour — happened with his move to wing. The way his speed shines in the corner, threatening with his shot on the offwing, was a boon to his game. He may have started his career as a center, but he’s developed into a premier right winger.
I’m reading Belfry Hockey by well, Darryl Belfry. It’s largely about skill development, and as someone who’s worked with some of the game’s most skilled players (Auston Matthews, Patrick Kane, and John Tavares), nobody knows better. He has a great line in the book that punctuates this discussion so well, and highlights why development isn’t tolerated, even if it should be.
Development is the manipulation of risk and trying to win the game is the management of risk.
There’s no reason why there can’t be room for both.
BTW, in the summer I’d like to start doing book reviews, and Belfry Hockey will probably be the first.
World Juniors 2024
Unfortunately there’s only one representative for the Dallas Stars at the World Juniors and that’s this year’s fourth rounder, Aram Minnetian. Unfortunately, he’s only an extra skater. So there’s not a whole lot to talk about.
Unless you think there’s something wrong with Lian Bichsel opting not to go and represent Team Switzerland. I’m not one of those people, despite wondering aloud if his choice to go back to Rogle was so that he could play in the World Juniors. However, I’ve seen some internet chatter about Bichsel’s personality. I think the only reason people create mountains out of molehills over this stuff is because players are so rarely encouraged to be prime movers, and to assert their own agency. Until we know why Bichsel chose to not to represent his country for the World Juniors, what’s the point in speculating?
Besides, if you’ve been reading this place, then you know that Bichsel is gonna A okay.
Very good article especially about Dylan Larkin. I have always thought what he said made sense. If it an illegal hit it should not only be a suspension but the suspension should last until the player that got hurt comes back if it causes him to miss games. If they would enact that it wouldn’t take but a couple of those to change things. I am still of the mind that somehow we have to get Miro back on his strong side or he is never going to be considered for the Norris.
Perhaps a ‘little birdie’ told Bichsel to hang loose - that a call up was forthcoming ? Just a thought....