How Does It Affect The Stars? The Philip Broberg drama, Tyson Barrie talking to other teams, and Vegas' spot in the Pacific
All-things hockey through the second week of December through a victory-green lens.
How Does It Affect the Stars will be weekly column from here on out. It’ll be a little like Elliotte Friedman’s 32 Thoughts, but with the Dallas Stars at the center of the universe. I’ve been tinkering with various “features” I know, but expect this one to stick.
The weekend for Dallas was a tough one, as they lost 6-1 to the Vegas Golden Knights. There was a lot of frustration. In response, there was also a lot of rank pulling when it comes to criticism. “The team is expected to fix the problem; second in the Central; it’s a long season; ebbs and flows.” This is a thirty-year old fanbase that knows a Stanley Cup, and bankruptcy: they’re not idiots, and these cliches don’t fly.
There was a moment in the Vegas game when the Stars were pressing and in the hole. Miro Heiskanen was on his strongside for a moment, and if memory serves correctly, he appeared to be almost shrugging (?) his shoulders. Whether he was actually doing that is not the point. And because I can’t clip it because blackouts are dumb, that’s also beside the point. His body language said everything, which is what prompted my comment on Twitter.
Heiskanen has a lot on the line. He’s the one who initiated his own Norris campaign. And he’s a proud player. It’s an important clue, IMO, to consider because it feels like Heiskanen knows what the fans know: this team isn’t living up to expectations. Dallas is a Cup favorite and they haven’t experienced a single stretch of sustained dominance all season. Certainly not like LA’s unbeaten road streak (11-0-1), or Boston’s home record (10-2-1). If we’re going by goal differential, the Stars only amount to 7th in the Western Conference, which feels more appropriate given their performance.
In writing about Nils Lundkvist last week at D Magazine, I was really writing about the blueline. However, other issues are creeping up, like Jake Oettinger’s erratic play, and the top line not showing out. There’s a place to discuss all of those on their own, but for now, here’s the rundown: Vegas is 7-2 over Dallas in their last nine meetings. Misleading? Yes, as many went beyond regulation. However, I’ll never forget Corey Sznajder’s observation (in his recap of the Dallas vs. Vegas playoff series) about Bruce Cassidy fixing Vegas’ offense following Pete DeBoer’s tenure.
None of this is to overreact to an evolving season; only to emphasize the need for Dallas to evolve faster into the team we know they can be.
Philip Broberg; a modest scandal
A 6’3, smooth-skating defender. What’s not to like? If you’re a contending team like Edmonton, the answer is ‘not much.’ However, Broberg himself mirrors the Nils Lundkvist drama in that Dallas wants to compete, but they can’t wait for his development. Whether he’s the next Nichushkin, or the next Honka, it doesn’t matter. This, among many other things, has always been my issue with player development. Let’s ignore the broad topic of who develops, how it happens, and leaving the ultimate arbiter in the hands of someone completely disconnected from the player’s history, profile, and evolution — the head coach (which itself a problem). There’s also the matter of teams aligning their own development as contenders with players aligning within that development. If you have a contending roster with no space for rookies, then why fit a square peg into a round hole? If Montreal were a contending team, I guarantee you Slafkovsky wouldn’t be playing. But they’re not in a space where his mistakes will hurt them.
Since this is about Dallas, I’d absolutely take a flyer on Broberg. Let’s get this out the way: Broberg profiles now very similarly to when he was drafted; a big, fast defensemen who break out and transitions but can’t do anything else. David St-Louis has a great breakdown at EPRinkside. However, in a perfect world having Broberg below Heiskanen and Harley on the depth chart would be phenomenal.
A depth defender doesn’t need to be a brilliant problem-solver, puck mover, or shutdown guy; they just need to be visible in transition, and control territory in sheltered minutes. I do think Lundkvist will develop into a more offensively potent defender. Broberg doesn’t have the vision or the shot once he’s in the offensive zone, but defensively and in the neutral, there’s more to work with. For a team like Dallas that needs speed from the backend, I’d certainly be calling.
Tyson Barrie, up for sale
On the flipside of the Broberg coin is someone you don’t have to flip at all: veteran puck mover, Tyson Barrie. By his own words, Nashville hasn’t been a great fit for him. In February, I called for Dallas to trade for Erik Karlsson for obvious reasons. But also because being able to attack with speed in all three zones means starting in the defensive zone with speed, and Dallas doesn’t have that. In fact, they’re downright slow. If DeBoer isn’t gonna trust a prospect to add offense from the backend, then a veteran “makes sense.”
Barrie works — at least on paper — for many reasons. He’s a player coaches will trust. And perhaps more critically…he can run a power play; more effectively than Heiskanen even.
Watching Heiskanen look frustrated in the Vegas game, I couldn’t help but wonder:
What would Heiskanen look like if he wasn’t the Number One Everything (kind of like when he first started in this league)? What if he were put back on his strongside, and next to a right shot number one? What if his partner pulled the heavy offensive lifting, and Heiskanen got to be who he’s always been: a shutdown defender in a puck mover’s body?
Barrie, of course, wouldn’t change that. But I could see Barrie looking like the solution to a bunch of hockey men who don’t question each other’s perspective or challenge each other’s philosophy: “we need more offense from the backend, so let’s get someone with offense AND experience.” It’s a simple formula with familiar results, but I could see how he might turn up on Dallas’ radar with Lundkvist stuck in a corner, living off kibble.
Nashville is on an odd place. They’re not a contending team but they’re keeping their head above water and currently in the top wild card spot thanks to Filip Forsberg leveling up (on the topic of prioritizing veterans over prospects, never forget Forsberg was had for Martin Erat!), Ryan O’Reilly becoming a much better fit than he was in Toronto, and some of their forward prospects developing into everyday’ers. They could easily retain half of Barrie’s salary to get a better deal too.
Let me just say — in case those ornery little nuggets weren’t enough — that I would absolute hate this theoretical deal. But Dallas would have a better blueline, at least on paper, and that’s usually how these things are calculated; by the optics.
What did Vegas’ win over Dallas do?
There’s a silver lining to Vegas’ win over Dallas: the Pacific is gonna eat each other. Looking at goal components (finishing = green / shot volume rates = blue / shot quality rates = yellow / save percentage = light purple) Vegas, LA, and Vancouver rate as the top three teams in the league.
Which means one of them is getting ousted in the first round. We’ve only just now hit the quarter mark of the regular season, but what I find interesting about this chart is how no one major factor is truly going backwards. In some ways this is reassuring: Dallas is bending, but they’re not breaking — at least in statistical terms.
However, there’s just one small problem: they’re in a similar spot as Vegas, with Winnipeg and Colorado just above them as a goal differential team (there’s a better term or set of terms to describe this chart but I’m having trouble right now, so forgive me). Winnipeg’s in a tough spot losing Kyle Connor to injury, but they’ve been able to play through them to their credit.
Stars Stack Programming Notes
I owe paid subscribers a paid post so this week you’re gonna get two.
Tuesday: The Other Stars, Texas Stars report w/ Video
Wednesday: Tales From the Clipped — Why Doesn’t DeBoer Trust Nils Lundkvist? (Paid)
Thursday: Heiskanen and Suter — An analytic deep dive w/ Video (Paid)
Friday: Another Edition of How Does it Affect the Stars?
As we move into the holiday break I want to get away from the strict game reports, not because they’re leaving entirely, but because what I’ll start doing is saving them for the Notes section. There I’ll post some stray observations, and ya’ll can join in! This will give me time to focus on the the stuff I started this place for to begin with — deeper discussions on all things Stars related rather than perfunctory breakdowns/news.
A feature like this allows me to still fit in game recaps without mutating my articles into half-measures.
Watching every game so far this season makes me think we are going to finish 6th or 7th in the playoff race unless some changes are made. The changes need to not only be personnel but also,philosophical. You can’t be what you’re personnel won’t support. I think last year the team was so happy that they had a chance to score instead of play “Bones” defense that it helped every aspect of the team. Now the NHL has watched film and can stop their offense so De Boer has to make changes to the scheme.
Great run down of where they are. I agree the Stars are much too predictable and teams are defending us by not letting us get our breakout going so we have to resort to the flip out... Harley seems the best at skating thru the strong forechecks (not 4).
I’d add Robo to the list of frustrated looking players. The last couple of years he showed more enthusiasm and positivity (remember his “whoooop!” When he scored?). I also remember him digging more pucks and winning more board battles using his size and reach. Is he avoiding those now? Hurt shoulder maybe? Did somebody tell him he’s a sniper now, just sit and wait for a pass???