How Does it Affect the Stars? The arms race in the West hits its crescendo (and it's not over)
And it's not good (for Dallas). Or will it even matter?
For Dallas, the question has never been about whether they qualify as good or even great, but whether they can endure multiple seven-round series against other great teams. Just look at the top teams in terms of goal differential. It’s brutal, with only two teams from the East in the top seven.
So far Jim Nill has done hreat. The trade for Chris Tanev is brilliant, and the drafting of Logan Stankoven may actually be the crown jewel when all is said and done ala Thomas Harley in last year’s playoffs.
But he’s also cramping his own style. Jani Hakanpaa was always intended as depth, and instead he’s untouchable to the current coaching staff. The player behind him cost a first round pick, further complicating any potential moves from here on out. After all, if you’re Nill and the Dallas org, there are bad optics (valid or not) to making a move that sidelines Lundkvist and Hakanpaa.
Before going to Sweden, Lian Bichsel was a player I thought deserved the same amount of attention as Stankoven and Bourque. His game is genuinely unique, and if Ryan Suter had been bought out (which would have made sense with or without Bichsel’s theoretical arrival) like he should have, it’s possible we end up in a world where the top six right now looks like: Heiskanen-Bichsel, Harley-Tanev, Lindell-Lundkvist. Granted, Bichsel isn’t a full time RHD, but still. Even if you’re not as high on Bichsel like I am, the point remains: Nill did the thing he needed to do, but did he do the thing that will prove enough?
I don’t know. I personally see a great team. It has gamebreakers of different stripes, hockey Barry Sanders, and is maybe one of the most well-rounded teams hockey has seen in years. But they’re also not getting the top line’s best as long as Pavelski remains up there, the system is a bit of an odd duck, and the blueline has just the right amount of weaknesses for elite teams to prey on.
If it makes it sound like we’re right back where we started, it’s only because no matter how much better Dallas is in certain areas, no amount of strengths can wash away bad goaltending. Outcomes change the perception of everything. Jake Oettinger is by no means a bad goalie. But he’s having a bad season, and it could prove costly if the roster isn’t 100%. How are the others doing?
Sean Walker and Casey Mittelstadt to Colorado
Colorado lost Bowen Byram, whose career remains shrouded in mystery despite being a critical blueline piece on a Cup-winning team. But they gain a solid puck moving defensemen, which is annoying for this one main reason…
(Besides Walker grading out insanely well)
As I noted, I’m a bit of a Walker skeptic. However, I am not skeptical of Colorado leaning into their identity as a transition team, and Walker helps in a big way. The other thing I love about what the Avalanche did is they weren’t afraid to add by subtracting. Ryan Johansen going back is huge, not only because he was an awful fit but because now there’s no question about where this leaves the other guy they got…
Mittelstadt was leading the Sabres in points, so Colorado absolutely gets the right player. While I think his production was a little juiced, he does a lot of things that will pay dividends for Colorado’s fast forwards. Like Valeri Nichushkin, he’s also an offensively potent player who has good defensive positioning. Colorado getting better at what they were already good at is a frightening sign. The matchup was already difficult for the Stars as is. For more on Mittelstadt’s fit, here’s Jack Han.
Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick to Edmonton
It’s fitting that Nill is a student of Ken Holland, as both have always been conservative at the trade deadline. That was the story for Edmonton, who everybody thought should get a goaltender. Instead they fortified their offensive depth by signing the veteran (sound familiar) forward. He’s not a difference maker at this point in his career, profiling like the bottom six forward he is at this point…
…but everyone and their moms has to always mention to the move Tampa made to bring in Blake Coleman and Barclaw Goodrow. Henrique fits that mold. If you’re the Stars, this move doesn’t warrant much reaction in a potential playoff series. Edmonton will live or die by its two superstars, and whether or not its goaltending holds up. It’s an aight move, but nothing that screams “oh damn.”
Which brings us to Vegas’ haul.
Anthony Mantha and Noah Hanifan to Vegas
But first…
A digression: about cap loopholes and LTIR
I’m the last person to defend hockey’s braintrust. I’ve got no love for hockey’s culture or the authorities I’m supposed to trust just because they have lanyards. Having said that, I’m also a hard sell when it comes to conspiracy. For those that don’t know, the GM’s discussed this very issue in a crucial three-hour meeting in 2022…for 30 whole minutes. In other words, GMs don’t care, and the players don’t care, because this loophole is an agreed upon rule of engagement for everyone involved.
Beyond that there’s a process. The deputy commissioner has to get medical records and an independent medical expert has to confirm the status of the player so that LTIR can be used. Yes, we’re talking about a league that still sounds clueless about concussions, but there’s also no incentive to be without a great player for an extend amount of time before a playoff push, and to intentionally sabotage other advantages like home-ice. “But the money.” Sure, but consider how the situation would play out without the loophole.
Trade deadline’s coming up. Dallas is in the hunt. Days before Dallas loses Jason Robertson to a knee injury. Boom: out for the year. Now they can’t trade for anyone to help fill the void because LTIR can’t be used in this alternate universe.
Injuries happen all the time, and teams that just happen to suffer injuries late in the season would be punished disproportionately. “Versus teams that get rewarded disproportionately?” Define reward. Am I to believe that some extra cap was the secret ingredient to winning the Cup for Chicago, Tampa, and Vegas — or were these just monster rosters to begin with?
I’m not saying I suddenly trust hockey people. But just because I don’t trust them doesn’t mean they’re always wrong, or that something they’re involved with is always suspect. As is, Dallas would be wise to exploit the “unlimited roster size” part of the cap rule. This will give them access to Mavrik Bourque and Lian Bichsel. Nill would never do it, but he can. As is, it’s about damn time the black aces were used for more than just moviegoers.
Back to Mantha and Hanifin for Vegas
Damn, I did it again! (Spelled Hanifin ‘Hanifan’) Mantha is gonna be good for Vegas.
And so will Hanifin for obvious reasons. However, the real question is whether or not it’s enough for a Vegas repeat. Honestly, I don’t think so. Mantha and Hanifin are really good adds, but they’re not superstars. The worry for Stars fans is that a team that won the Cup got better. Which is true.
But Vegas was also an overachiever last year. As Dom at The Athletic noted last year, the average Cup champion scores on 8.4 percent of their chances and saves 93 percent of the shots faces (a PDO — the oft-considered ‘luck’ stat — of 101.4). Vegas scored on 12.5 percent of their chances, and saved 94 percent (for a PDO of 106.5). They’re due for some regression. I don’t think these two moves keeps them off that PDO cliff, so Vegas certainly has the ability to repeat, but I don’t believe they get there.
For those that want to know Dallas’ playoff stats last year, they didn’t get the bounces. They were below the average Cup champ’s shooting percentage at 8.1, and well below the average save percentage with an 89.5 save percentage.
The moves were big and brash, and the teams got better in the West, but it’s still an evenly-matched bloodbath at the end of the day. To me Dallas’ biggest moves are gonna be finding the right mixture in their lineup.
I don’t dig the Lindell-Tanev pair because I don’t think a dedicated shutdown pair is what you want for 20 minutes a game. It’s possible a new combo unlocks their efficiency from the backend, and then there’s the potential addition of Bourque. Is he every bit as good as Stankoven? No…
And yet he comes damn close. But I’ll talk all about him tomorrow! (Paid subscribers)
I believe that they are holding Nils out because they don’t want him to get too many points …… If he scores 55 points over 2 years ( I believe he currently has 31 )their 4th Round pick to NYR ( now the Kraken ) converts to a 3rd round pick . That is my CONSPIRACY THEORY and I’m Stickin’ to it
I think the Nils trade came from a desire to grow a "new Klinberg". He is okay in regular season sheltered minutes, but I doubt he ever develops past a third pairing option. I doubt Hakanpaa is here next year. So the RD problem will remain. Would love a trade for Ferraro of San Jose, or another decent puck moving non-rental right shot d-man.