How Does It Affect the Stars? William Nylander's extension, and Anaheim and Philadelphia with a blockbuster trade
Plus a quick preview of Dallas' rematch with Minnesota.
The Dallas Stars finally had what felt like a hell of a night this Monday. Not only did they do the thing they needed to do since jump street — trust a player in their organization, which in this case was third string netminder, Matt Murray — but it felt like a complete performance beyond just being a 4-0 win without either Miro Heiskanen or Jake Oettinger.
Of course, the asterisk is that the Minnesota Wild are a bad team with their top player in Kirill Kaprizov, and even worse team without. Nonetheless, Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa kept their heads surprisingly above water despite going toe to toe with Minnesota’s top line of Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, and Mats Zuccarello. The penalty kill scored two goals, which is nuts, and Nils Lundkvist murked a Wild to buy himself some extra games. Tyler Seguin got on board because like I keep telling you: I come from the future. (We’ll ignore the less prophetic one about Wyatt Johnston. Although I’ll just say I stand by my argument for reasons I outlined in the piece.)
While a win over Minnesota is expected, that’s the key. Dallas is expected to take names, just like they’re expected to dominate. If the former comes, maybe the latter will too. I wouldn’t expect any changes other than seeing Scott Wedgewood draw back in. As much as I’d like to see Ty Dellandrea take Radek Faksa’s spot, Faksa scored a goal, so…good for Faksa, but yea. Most critically for Dallas, the win keeps them on pace with Colorado (who beat Boston thanks to a brilliant Devon Toews performance; to think this is Cale Makar gets to play with) and Winnipeg (who beat just predictably beat the brakes off Columbus).
Sticktap: Aaron Knodell wrote a really great, in-depth piece on the Hintz line’s struggles. I recommend reading it and giving him a follow. It goes deeper than I did to talk about their minutes with the defense pairs, along with their shift in competition they’re facing. I’m frankly, a little jealous, and somewhat annoyed I didn’t write that piece myself. Kudos, Aaron!
William Nylander extended, eight years, $11.5 million AAV
Pound for pound, Nylander may be one of the most talented offensive players in the game. He's a phenomenal talent, and one of the very very few players you'll see that can cause Miro Heiskanen some trouble. However my personal opinion is that this is just way too much. Nylander may be one of the most talented offensive players in the game, but he's not a complete player. We're talking about the second highest paid winger in the game. He makes more than David Pastrnak, Kirill Kaprizov, Johnny Gaudreau, and Nikita Kucherov. I mention those names because they’re top 15 in EV point production per 60 since 2015, when Nylander made his NHL debut. Nylander ranks 33rd in that time. That’s four players Toronto has making eight figures, all scoring forwards. That’s insane. (For reasons beyond just the money, as I’ve discussed before.)
As far as what this has to do with Dallas, JFresh posted Nylander's closest comp the other day. It was none other than Jamie Benn. As Steve Dangle pointed out, GMs have to stop fearing the market. Just because you’re worried about the potential return on a trade doesn’t mean you have to recover your loss all at once. It’s possible to win a trade and get worse (Calgary and Florida: I really felt like getting Huberdeau and Weegar was excellent value, and even though Huberdeau is already a full blown albatross, there’s life for him if they would put him next to the right players), just as it’s possible to lose a trade and get better (LA and Winnipeg re: Dubois for Vilardi, Iafallo and Kupari).
The other thing is this: GMs inevitably end up looking like donkeys (why is this a saying? Donkeys are beautiful creatures, unlike hockey GMs) precisely because they pay premium to the wrong side of a player's peak production curve. Keep in mind, this is not hindsight analysis or criticism. Every GM would have given Benn that contract following his Art Ross year. However, we know how aging curves work. If you want to pay for a player’s best years, ages 20-26 is the window for forwards. Paying peanuts for players beforehand, and rolling in the Brinks truck for the window after is a recipe for overpaying players and getting cap crunched by a lack of production.
Although we’re way ahead of ourselves, the Nylander extension may be instructive of Jason Robertson’s next contract. He’ll be the same age as Nylander by the time his contract is done. Will he get Pastrnak money, Nylander money, or perhaps something even bigger given that he’ll be getting his next contract in a less, flat cap world? It’s easy to be critical of Robertson’s future cap with the season he’s having, but let’s keep thinks in perspective: Robertson is having a down year yet he’s on pace for 81 points. How do you value Robertson if he’s closer to this year’s version than last season’s? Do you give him Nylander money if he plateaus but then abruptly explodes in his final contract year?
I don’t like to imagine life without Robertson. And to be sure, there’s an element of optics. Why should players want to sign with your team if you don’t develop a reputation of paying your players? But at the end of the day, money needs to make way for the right support, and it’s hard to do that if you’re always overpaying. That’s the lesson Toronto’s management group doesn’t seem to get: Matthews/Nylander/Marner/Tavares are all worth what they’re being paid. (Ignoring the lowkey botched negotiations on Kyle Dubas’ part.) But when they’re all getting paid on the same team, you end up shopping at the bargain bin for other key positions. 1) Support doesn’t nor should it come cheap and 2) the forward position isn’t the only position of investment. At least Dallas doesn’t have have those problems.
Cutter Gauthier for Jamie Drysdale
For casual fans who don’t know, this is not a typical prospect trade. It’s not Jonathan Drouin for Mikhail Sergachev. Gauthier is not a player Philly would have traded under any other circumstances. He was drafted by the current regime, and having a hell of a season. Insiders suggested that Gauthier, the power forward drafted 5th overall from 2022, wasn’t gonna sign with Philly, hence the trade.
On the surface, it definitely feels like a win-win. While Philly would have preferred to keep Gauthier, they traded a blue chip second line center for a blue chip second pairing defender. The circumstances surrounding the trade basically forced both team’s hands, but it’s still something that I would like to see teams do more of; not to mention something teams can likely benefit from. This is the counterargument to the idea of “drafting for need.” After all, needs change. Remember when Dallas needed centers in their pipeline, and all they had was Jason Dickinson and Devin Shore? Now they’re flush with them, boasting Wyatt Johnston and Mavrik Bourque behind Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin.
This is particularly relevant for Dallas regarding Lian Bichsel. (I know it’s on your mind, but I am skipping any and all speculation about Bichsel, the personality.) Bichsel is a fantastic player. He’s been one of my favorite players to analyze because I find his game so incredibly, thoroughly, and wonderfully textured. As long as Dallas makes the appropriate room for him, he’s gonna be a big part of the organization for a long time.
However, needs change. Thomas Harley has arrived. If Dallas ever gets serious about constructing the blueline from here on out, Heiskanen and Harley will be manning the top four. Bichsel doesn’t actively play on his weakside. Any suggestion to the contrary is just wish fulfillment. Yes, he’s taken shifts on his weakside, but he’s a natural lefty, just as he was in the SEL, and just as he was with the Texas Stars. If his ultimate place on the roster is on the left side, on the third pair, then why not trade him for a right-handed defensemen that can play in the top four? Not only does this fill the top four, but it helps maximize one of Heiskanen and Harley. This hurts to say because I’m a big believer in Bichsel.
The idea of “drafting for need” is not crazy to me. If your roster is missing a type of player, you need to find players for that type of roster spot. What’s crazy is using the draft itself for your needs. The Gauthier/Drysdale trade, accidentally or not, illustrates how you can draft for need away from the draft table.
Granted, I have no idea what a Bichsel trade would look like. Probably Bichsel for Vancouver’s Tom Willander? There are very very few RHD prospects on Bichsel’s level, and Willander’s about it (this is also says something about RHD prospects on the whole, I think). Keep in mind, I don’t want to see Bichsel traded nor am I advocating for it (nor would it make sense for Vancouver who have needed RHD as badly as Dallas, not to mention, the whole ownership drama). I’m just saying that CONCEPTUALLY — I wouldn’t be against the idea. And the same goes for the rest of Dallas’ prospects.
Previewing tonight’s game vs. Minnesota
Should we expect another bloodletting? Probably.
However, Minnesota’s defense is still pretty good even with Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon on the shelf. In fact, I don’t know when this happened, but the Wild are ranked second in expected goals against per hour. Behind who? Believe it or not the team they’re playing tonight: the Dallas Stars. But that’s according to Evolving-Hockey. Micah Blake McCurdy has Carolina ranked higher, with Dallas second.
The Stars have quietly risen the ranks, even if it hasn’t always felt like it. I’d be shocked of Dallas didn’t win.
I have been yelling for DeBoer to play Murray. To don’t wear Wedgewood like he did Otter last year. I don’t think he would have played Murray if Wedgewood could have gone. I think Rayzor said Wedgewoodvwasn’t even the backup. Play the guys you have don’t wear players down because you don’t trust them. If you don’t trust them move them out don’t feed them nachos
Drafting for need is pretty lousy. You just pointed out one key reason, because roles change. The timeline for players is usually a few years, even for high end players. Were the oilers really going to draft defense when mcdavid was on the board? Sure if you need to split the difference go with need. But also take a few lottery picks with your 5th rounder.