I Don't Know About You But I *Am* Celebrating After Just One Win
Victories can happen over ideas, and that's how I felt about Dallas' win over Nashville.
Let’s get personal.
I was all set to write a game recap for DBD and then my power went out, the second time in four days. I have an old house in an old neighborhood with old tech. It’s not as bad as the house in Barbarian, but close enough. Strong rains? Outage time. Strong thunder? Outage. An angry gust of wind, or an ant pissing on cotton? Boom.
It would have been an easy writeup too. What was last night’s game about if not Mason Marchment stomping a mudhole on Nashville? But last night’s win struck a chord with me. Why was I so excited about Dallas’ win? I didn’t know until it dawned on me: because I’ve been waiting five years for this.
The 2017-2018 Ken Hitchcock season genuinely tested my resolve as a fan. And no, not because I loved Lindy Ruff’s brand of “fuck it, let’s just score goals” hockey. Yes, I’d rather watch an exciting game over a boring one, but I was fine with Ruff hockey running its course. A fun game is great, but getting the win is just a little bit better, and Ruff wasn’t winning games. However, my problem with Hitch wasn’t just about making hockey less exciting. It was also about making the future less exciting.
Hitch’s mindset hadn’t moved on. He didn’t like some of the kids. He misunderstood public analytics*. The things he did like felt antiquated: Greg Pateryn in a top four role (oof), Jason Spezza in a limited role, and his approach to defense in general, which burned them on the road. Hitch has nothing to do with with Mike Babcock or the drama in Toronto, but I’m just ready for this ‘old guard’ — who preach accountability but don’t hold themselves up to the same standard — (in his exit interview, Hitch all but blamed the lost season on Ben Bishop’s injury) to GTFOff my wave.
Do I sound angry? Probably. Is it deserved? Probably not. Hitch, as far as I can tell, seemed like a good dude. Rick Bowness, who I threw chingasos at for days, seemed like a great dude. How you feel doesn’t always jive with what you think, but no matter how many histograms I post for you, I’m still a firm believer in giving you guys what I feel. So yea, I was hooting and hollering on Twitter. After all, how many of us have:
Wanted to see Miro Heiskanen back on his strongside.
Wanted to see a young prospect get the benefit of the doubt.
Wanted to see Jim Nill roll the dice on someone else’s mystery box and follow the analytic yellow brick road.
Wanted to see Dallas stop relying on Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin to fix each other’s broken wings.
Wanted to see real creativity in the forward lines.
Wanted to see Nill roll the dice on an unproven talent brimming with NHL potential.
Wanted to see a system that isn’t playing simply not to lose.
That’s why I was celebrating. It didn’t just feel like victory. It felt like vindication.
But…that’s not to say we’re out of the woods. It’s just one game. And it’s gonna be a long season. Maybe Miro moves back to his weakside. Maybe Johnston doesn’t stay up. Maybe the system isn’t good enough. Or maybe it is, but it’s not enough in a tough Western Conference. They say believe who people are the first time they show you, so yea, I’m celebrating. If this is how DeBoer chose to start the season, I trust that this is how he’ll try to end it, in victory or defeat. That, to me, is a five-year win in the making.
Stray Squirrels
My idea was to do a game recap for DBD called ‘Momentum Shift.’ A way to maybe key in on the subtle ways the tide is turned for one team’s fortunes. Unfortunately power outage + Marchment stealing the show made it obvious. However, I recommend reading Sean’s game recap, who does a great job of breaking down some of Marchment’s stick wizardry in particular.
Like I said, Marchment is such a breathe of fresh air, blue eyes, and violence that this team needs. Listen. You know me. I believe in a much more modern game, and getting crap like cheap hits, and pointless fighting out of the game. But there’s absolutely a psychological element certain players can leverage over the opposition, and Marchment is that element; something the Stars have lacked for years. There’s a saying in MMA about jiu jitsu artists: punch a black belt in the face, he becomes a purple belt. I believe the same is true in hockey. Even the most limited hockey players shine out in the open. Conversely, even the most talented players fold in the darkness. Marchment has the ability to back talent into a corner. Hockey’s a beautiful game, filled with poetry and brilliance. It’s also a game where sometimes you need to kick some ass too.
If you want to know why I’m so high on Mavrik Bourque, look at Marchment. While Marchment has a reach advantage Bourque will never have, Bourque has a first step that Marchment doesn’t. It doesn’t always take raw speed to create space. I had this discussion on Twitter, but we’re so overconditioned to think of elite centers as elite athletes (McDavid and MacKinnon) it’s easy to dismiss the players who have the DNA of O’Reilly and Backstrom. Bourque is gonna be fine, and you should absolutely be hyped if he’s called up this year.
Nils Lundkvist looked fantastic (even if the analytics weren’t nice to him). The jury’s out on that pairing with Esa Lindell (mother of god, Lindell botched a cross ice peace with no pressure for either d-man and I blew a blood vessel) but it’s probably better for Lundkvist than it is for Lindell, which is a net positive.
Tanking But Not Tanking Flyers under Tortorella blitzing New Jersey for five? Exactly what everyone expected!
Heiskanen with Colin Miller is an amusing pair (Miller had some gaffes during the preseason) but Heiskanen made it work with Roman Polak. Miller is a lot better, so I’m not worried, and quite like it.
Denis Gurianov will always be a source of consternation among fans because people’s brains hate a paradox: “how can a player be good at some things if he’s bad at others?” That’s not the question. The question is does the cost of Gury’s flaws when minimized outweigh the benefits of his strengths when maximized? Early returns look good. The Benn line is definitely a line that will need time to gel, especially as Benn enters the twilight of his career.
The DailyDallasHockey Twitter account made a really smart observation about Johnston. His goal isn’t what hockey people would call a goal scorer’s goal, but his movement is the kind of movement you’d expect out of a goal scorer. A lesser forward mind would have sniffed around for a rebound. Instead, Johnston made space. What’s ironic is that it’s Johnston’s passing that I think will ultimately earn him that second line center spot. Also:
Who doesn’t love a heartwarming moment?
The Stars PP was successful, but I would have liked to have seen better movement on the first unit.
Just so you know, I like a lot of hockey teams. Buffalo is definitely a team I’m paying attention to. I love Granato’s philosophy on development, and I love Peterka: one of the names I wanted to see get called at the 2020 draft along with Bourque. So it was great to see them win and look good doing so (what a sick third line).
It’s good to see the Hintz line get on board, but I thought they looked a bit rusty outside of some prime chances (thankfully, this line is so good they only need one chance to get on the box score).
I know Tyler Seguin got three points, and his effort was rewarded, but something to keep an eye on is whether or not this style holds up. I’m not a big fan of Seguin turning into a bit of a mucker, but I’m also not gonna complain if it allows him to find the scoreboard.
The blueline taking so many penalties is definitely something to watch out for. Hakanpaa and Miller play fiery games.
Important world update: the horror movie doll known as Chucky is beefing with the new horror movie doll in town. Just thought you should know.
Mike wrote a great preview for the Stars yesterday. We are not friends if you didn’t read it. Just kidding…no, I hate you…unless you’re just now catching up.
*Hitchcock famously defended Devin Shore’s terrible metrics to Shapiro based on his own “synergy stats.” I could another 7000 words about this, but this approach to analytics is fine if you’re a data analyst, but a hockey coach without a background in data analysis should learn the definition of ‘hubris’ first (which it was).
Last night was Fun. Good stuff David!