Into the Weeds: An obnoxiously deep dive into the projected value of the 2025-2026 Dallas Stars defensemen
What's in store for the puck protection store?
There is no x-factor like Dallas’ blueline.
Truth be told, the Stars have a lot of contradictions to resolve. They boast some of the game’s best defenders, and yet the defensive core feels incomplete. They have puck movers and they don’t. They have shutdown defenders and they could use one or two more. Does this strange mix explain why the Stars were fourth-worst in exiting their own zone with a pass or a carry per Corey Sznajder’s tracking data for the 2024-2025 season? Maybe.
The Dallas blueline is hard to get a read on. Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley lead the way. Esa Lindell and Lian Bichsel cover varying degrees of defensive bases. And then there’s Nils Lundkvist and Ilya Lyubushkin. Are they a collective afterthought, or do they have their own value within their respective bubbles? That’s ultimately the question. Can the Stars pull their “weakest” links into the gravity of their best? Can they create a strong-link unit out their top six?
I’m not sure, and I don’t think I can answer that question. At least not yet. In case I’m being overly obtuse, consider the expected shot danger of what Dallas projects to allow. It’s pretty ordinary; hardly the profile of a team with an elite defensive squad.
In addition to the new system of Glen Gulutzan, Dallas is unique in that their blueline may have tricks up their sleeve. Not only can they mix and match pairs depending on the gamestate — reuniting Harley and Heiskanen for trailing situations, for example — but it’s possible that the blueline grows into a bigger asset than in previous season. Flawed or not, Dallas doesn’t have a weak link. Not like last season or the season before.
This assumes a few things, like Lundkvist’s development, but if teammate quality really is the prime mover of player performance, then nowhere will the defense be aided more than through who gets to be Batman’s Robin, and vice versa.
Just like last time, this article won’t be heavy on the data. Louis Boulet’s work goes a long towards giving you a lot of data, different buckets of data, but explaining that data with visuals to make things easier to understand. As with the forwards, we’ll look at the following categories for eight different projected defense pairs.
Generation (shot volume)
Transition Attack (speed with the puck)
Exits (puck support in the defensive zone)
Transition Defend (neutral zone defense)
Suppression (shot volume against)
Checking (wearing down the opposition)
Shooting (self-explanatory)
Passing (likewise)