Into The Weeds: The Dallas Stars are not the defensive team you think they are

As that a good thing. Or a bad thing?

It drives me crazy. Goals against is not a defensive stat. Goals against is not a defensive stat. Goals against is not a defensive stat. Goals against is not a sefensive dat. Goals against sis naf denestrat.

I don’t think I’m asking for much here, or being pedantic. Goaltending is a very distinct position from defensemen, just as defensemen are distinct positions from goaltending. You could argue that there is some loose overlap, but is that loose overlap between defenders and goalies any more or less loose than the defensive overlap between defenders and forwards? Are forwards not tasked with defensive responsibilities too?

I respect that defense and goaltending share a specific bottom line: preventing goals. But again, so do forwards. In fact, with the shift in positionless hockey, we routinely have forwards who are better defensively than some defensemen, just as we have defensemen who are better offensively than some forwards.

Now, can goals against be indicative of good defense? Of course. Take the Los Angeles Kings for example. L.A. is 2nd in goals against (GA) with 136 goals allowed. Is it because of goaltending? Not really. In all situations, their goaltending ranks 9th, and 10th at even-strength. It’s good work by David Rittich and Darcy Kuemper, but who thinks of Rittich and Kuemper as really good goaltenders? Defensively, on the other hand, L.A. is dynamite. They rank 1st in shot quality allowed (or expected goals against at EV, adjusted for minutes). When shorthanded, they rank 2nd in expected goals against per 60. In other words, Rittich and Kuemper’s jobs are not hard compared to their peers. So the formula for goals against is clear but distinct: elite team defense + serviceable goaltending = elite goal suppression.

So what about Dallas? They’re an odd duck. Despite the dramatic title, I am not alluding to the Stars being “bad, actually.” Rather, they’re extremely peculiar as a defensive team. There’s a lot of nuance in parts of the game you wouldn’t expect, strengths in places you wouldn’t expect, and weaknesses you wouldn’t expect. Could this peculiarity tell us about their future?

As always, big thanks to Corey Sznajder for the data you simply can’t get anywhere else.