Jamie Benn: A Top 10 Regression Candidate According to The Athletic, But to What End?

Is the the captain due for a fall, or will he just slow down?

Original artwork by Ryan Konzelman

With 78 points in 82 games, Jamie Benn had the fifth-most productive season of his 14-year career. He did it thanks to Wyatt Johnston, who doesn’t get enough credit for being more than a shooter. He did it thanks to Pete DeBoer’s system, which favored an actual attack instead of the previous systems that tried to be the mole in a game of Whac-A-Mole. He can thank Evgenii Dadonov and Ty Dellandrea a little too. But he wasn’t bad himself. And so the conditions were ripe for Benn to have a big year. But to shoot 17 percent, the highest of his career? The Bennassaince is due for a dark age.

That’s Harmen Dayal’s brief thesis at The Athletic, and why he considers Benn one of the top 10 candidates due for regression. As much as I’d love to sit here and tell you all that Dayal is wrong, I can’t. Not only is Dayal one of the sharper hockey analysts around, but I share that opinion. Hell, forget opinions: we’re talking about the reality.

For context, here’s Dayal breaking down the math.