Let's (really) talk about Colorado's 5-4 win over Dallas
Stray observations on what Dallas' loss really means. Plus my final word on the Valeri Nichushkin debate.
I didn’t intend on writing anything for the Dallas vs. Colorado game. That’s what my exhaustive preview was for: something evergreen. I picked Dallas to win because Colorado has a really bad (for a competitive team at least) record on the road thanks to a really bad (for a national hockey league team) save percentage. I felt like Colorado was and is, however, the better team broadly speaking. Both teams, on the other hand, are just shy of being elite. One team would win, the other team would lose, life would go on, and so would I.
Instead the shit hit the fan. Dallas once again blew a multigoal lead late in the game. Miro Heiskanen got injured on a play that was happening all too often, with Colorado isolating Dallas defenders on rush attacks. Sean Shapiro brought back 20/20, Gavin Spittle invited me to Spits and Suds (which I couldn’t make because life, like this Colorado game, sucks), and Bob Sturm even got back in the game to write a thoughtful recap. To top it off, everybody is revisiting the Valeri Nichushkin discussion! Of course I had to write something.
I’m not gonna say too much about the game’s broad implications. I think my preview was sufficient. Dallas, even WITH Heiskanen, has struggled to play past their flaws. They often struggle to find a rhythm, hence the issues with slow starts and late collapses, and the momentum they do create tends to be built by individual performances rather than a cohesive system. In that sense, the Avalanche are instructive here. Their depth sucks, but how similarly does each line look on the rush? Conversely, when you watch Dallas, you know exactly which lines are on the ice, for better and for worse. The difference, as discussed in the preview, is Colorado has a mobile blueline who can facilitate the puck up ice, making breakouts and thus zone entries more effective while Dallas’s blueline lobs grenades into the neutral zone for forwards to handle.
The good news, insofar as there is any, is that Dallas has a “easy” schedule ahead of them. Granted, we saw what that was worth versus Montreal, but still. If Dallas is at all more than the sum of one player on their blueline, then the next stretch of games won’t be disastrous.
Both teams shy of being elite
While I think Colorado is a very good team, I don’t think they’re as good as LA or Vegas. In fact, Winnipeg is making a strong case for themselves as the team in the Central.
Sidenote: blue bar is the percentage of goals loosely attributed to shot rates above (or below) replacement level, yellow for shot quality, green for shooting, and pink for saves.
To me this was the biggest highlight of the evening. It was a fun game, but it reminded me of an action fight between two UFC fighters who aren’t quite championship caliber, and thus deliver us excitement in place of mastery. Dallas struggles to drag their blueline up by their bootstraps while Colorado struggles to be more than top heavy. However these two teams match up in the postseason, it’s hard to imagine them getting through the top dog in the Pacific.
Just saying.
The Seguinlightenment continues
Tyler Seguin continues to be one of the most consistent players for Dallas, which is an odd thing to say, because most of us wrote him off. Even now I think a lot of fans probably couldn’t tell you what he’s actually doing right. They just know he shows up, looks good, and good stuff sometimes happens with him on the ice. Yes, Matt Duchene, etc. But as I’ve said before, he’s doing a lot of quiet things well that he doesn’t get credit for. So it’s nice to see him get some not-so-quiet rewards for the work he puts in.
Wyatt Johnston, building momentum at last
Do not be surprised if Johnston has a massive second half. While I feel like his teammates have dragged him down, it’s clear that he hasn’t been phased by it. He still performs at a high level. I can probably only list a handful of games I thought he couldn’t have scored at least one goal in. Granted, there’s more to efficiency than goal scoring, but he’s been building momentum for some time, and I suspect it’ll continue for the month of January.
Sidenote: Not for nothing but I suspect Logan Stankoven is gonna be the answer next season. He does something similar to Dadonov, only at a higher and more consistent level in the way he’s so effective on the rush delivering the puck to others. He’s also not a liability defensively, which means the line will no longer either a) get stuck in their own zone or b) get caught constantly overpursuing.
A digression: Valeri Nichushkin
And here I thought I was minding my own business on Twitter…and then I hear Sean bring my name into the Valeri Nichushkin discussion on Spits and Suds, and then Bob Sturm talked about it (!). First off, I love you all, and I appreciate the lively debate. This is part of what I appreciate about Stars coverage, and why we should count our blessings: it may not be what it should be, but what exists is a passionate, educated group who can cover every puck nook and cranny for casual and hardcore fans alike.
With that out the way, let me clarify about what this is not. For me, this is not about whether Dallas could have salvaged Nuke. This isn’t about the cap, and it’s not about apportioning blame. I concede that Nill believed he couldn’t sign Joe Pavelski without buying out Nichushkin, and that Nichushkin was never gonna be the player for Dallas that he is now. That’s not with this discussion is about for me. Nichushkin couldn’t help his development. After all, development can be rapid, as it was for Wyatt Johnston, or it can be gradual, as it was for Nuke. However, Dallas could help their approach to his development, but refused to even try. Isn’t that the implication to the obnoxious “the NHL is not a development league” mantra? That’s what this has always been about for me. Because the Nichushkin discussion is not a Nichushkin discussion. It’s the Gurianov discussion. It’s the Honka discussion. It’s the Lundkvist discussion, which itself is the Dellandrea discussion. And these discussions are also about Anthony Duclair, Jack Roslovic, pretty much every damn prospect in Columbus, and on and on.
NHL teams have bad and middling players on their roster all the time. Just look (sorry old boy) at Radek Faksa. There are a lot of reasons for why Dallas lost, but you could timestamp at least one of those reasons when Faksa, even at center ice, couldn’t hit an empty net. That’s bad. Your position is forward: you should be able to do forward things. The point here is that if you can have space for bad or middling players, you can have space for imperfect/developing ones. And you can stop treating them like convenient scapegoats. I’m sick of young prospects being the only demographic to be held accountable for their hockey crimes.
“So you’re saying these guys can suck with no repercussions?”
I’m saying they should be given the same benefit of the doubt as veteran players.
“But they haven’t earned the same benefit of the doubt.”
This is insane. Of course they have! Dallas passed up on Shea Theodore to draft Nichushkin. They passed on Barzal to draft Gurianov, Larkin for Honka, and they paid a first round pick to bring Lundkvist on board. How many veteran players on Dallas’ squad right now would bring back a first round pick? A big portion of the team’s payroll was dedicated to ignoring hundreds of other talented players in favor of the one they picked. The absolute least teams can do is learn everything possible about who this player is, and not leave anything to chance; like whether or not the head coach has googly eyes for players with no future on the team (cough, Greg Pateryn). That’s why I brought up Nichushkin. Beyond being skilled in the arts of dead horse fu, I know this discussion will continue. Because it’s not actually about Nichushkin.
TL;DR I want to see development strategies, not development plans.
Please bring Dellandrea and Lundkvist back
They might not be world beaters, but Dellandrea at least has an offensive tailbone that Faksa completely lacks, while Lundkvist has some offensive chops that Joel Hanley can’t approximate.
Dallas’ defense without Heiskanen
It goes without saying, doesn’t it? That the Stars defense without Heiskanen is absolutely buck naked. Thomas Harley is the only one who can drive offense from all three zones. My hope is that the following stretch makes clear (as if it weren’t already) to the organization how dire things are. Remember Sean’s story about how the Horseshit rant really opened the org’s eyes to the fact that Benn and Seguin were no longer the top dawgs, and how they had to remodel their approach to building the team?
This should be that moment for the Stars top brass. This should be that Oh Shit moment, where they realize Heiskanen needs to be on the left side, that Esa Lindell is overpaid for what he does, since he only does one thing; where they realize Ryan Suter needs to be sheltered more; that Lundkvist should probably play more (even if the writing is on the wall); and that Dallas could stand to lose half of its blueline overnight, and be better off with the right approach. Another way of saying this is that right now, they should be brainstorming how to build around Heiskanen on pair one, and Harley on the left on pair two. Like this:
Miro Heiskanen — TK
Thomas Harley — TK
TK — TK
That should be the big brainstorm board in their war room. There should be no discussions about extending Lindell. There should no discussions about keeping Heiskanen on his weakside. (Imagine Cale Makar taking last night’s shots from his weakside, and tell me with a straight face he would have been as effective.) Nothing. This is it. Just Heiskanen and Harley. That should be the foundation for everything else. That should be the lens through which they make their future moves. Anything less is just management malfeasance.
Agree passionately on a couple things. One, player development model in the NHL makes no sense to me. Two, just because Heiskanen is so good that you can play him on his weak side doesn’t mean you should - for years.
Miro and Harley then ............... Crickets ...... Pretty Much