Let's talk about a nailbiter: Stars lose 5-4 to the Lightning
Sweet game. Despite losing...
Razor has never described a hockey game as a “punch in the face contest” but if he ever referred to a game in one of his flowery pugilism euphemisms, Dallas’ 5-4 loss to Tampa Bay would have qualified. The Lightning began the season slow, but at 6-3-1 in their last 10, it’s safe to say they’re finally starting to wake up. Dallas has cooled down lately, but the point they gained tonight still keeps them first in the Central with a 9-5-2 record. (Colorado, like Tampa, is also beginning to wake up so Dallas should mind the gap.)
The Lightning dominated the first period, tallying 20 shot attempts, and giving up 14 for a 58 percent CF. Despite that, Jake Oettinger kept the Lightning at bay after a defensive breakdown early in the game gave Tampa the lead. In a running theme for the night, fortunes would change hands when Mason Marchment tied the game in the first (one of four leads that would be exchanged). He did it on the Power Play. There’s a lot to say about the Power Play. Just kidding:
But I’ll say some stuff anyway. The power play is a wagon, and I don’t expect it to be stopped. While Robertson rightfully gets all the press because he’s the guy scoring goals, nobody’s talking about the wonders Miro Heiskanen has installed upon taking over first unit duties with his movement and entries. In fact, his impact on the PP is even greater than Robertson’s, with Dallas 65 percent more likely to score with him on the ice at 5 on 4.
What Dallas is doing on the power play is bonkers, and I’m sorry I ever questioned you Steve Spott.
Oh right, there was a game.
Dallas almost took the lead in the first. Wyatt Johnston has been relatively quiet over the last few games, but boy did he have himself a shift late in the first.
I’ve got a lot to say about Johnston’s game overall, and what I think of his line, but he has shifts like this a lot for a rookie - shifts where he just seems a step ahead of everyone on the ice, and a scoring chance seems to drop from the ether. No matter how much he cools down, these moments are gonna happen more and more, and when they begin to happen consistently…[/Insert Infamous Jeremy Irons Dungeons and Dragons Clip Here.]
Overall this game was a great back and forth war of wits and hits. Dallas took over the shot attempt differential in the second. Former Stars prospect Nick Paul (traded off in the Jason Spezza trade, remember!) scored on the PP, and then Dallas’ hyper-lethal PP answered right back with one of the smoothest puckjacks you’ll ever see from Joe Pavelski.
Pavelski casually notched his 10th assist on Dallas’ third goal, which gave them the lead for a few minutes.
Listen. There’s a reason why I sifted through a bunch of CSV files to write about the nature of the modern lead, and how tenuous it is nowadays: and it’s because the nature of the modern lead is such that it’s extremely tenuous nowadays. So naturally, Steven Stamkos tied it up.
I thought for sure Dallas was done after the Ian Cole goal in the third. The hockey gods decided to band together to beat Kelly Forbes, but then they shifted to terrorizing Sergachev instead.
This was a well-earned win for Tampa, who had the edge in the shot quality battle. But a great performance from Dallas in enemy territory. Plus they sent a sensible lineup in OT. Sometimes it’s the little things…
Stray squirrels
Nils Lundkvist quietly had a good game. I’m not just starting with him because I’m writing about him in D on Thursday. Maybe I am. But still, 57 CF% to lead all defenders, made some strong defensive plays, and some strong efforts offensively…thanks Chris Drury!
I’ve been watching Matej Blumel closely, and I feel like he has these fantastic early moments, only to fade somewhat. That’s not a criticism, just an observation. He’s young, and on a pretty specific line, *and* he already has a goal…I’d just like to see the same thing he seems to offer every first shift - but for all shifts. Is that really so much to ask?
I have strong opinions about Ryan Suter, but I don’t consider him a bad defenseman by any stretch because he’s not. But he’s had some real blunders over this recent stretch. The first goal basically began because he got caught flatfooted, and when the dust settled, even let his man get a shot off. That sequence led to the faceoff the Lightning would win, which led to the goal. I realize that’s dumping a lot of blame on Suter, but it’s a great example of how mistakes can have ripple effects. And right now, his mistakes have some residue.
One player to keep an eye on his Seguin. As you know, I don’t pick on Seguin or Benn. It’s not in my personal brand handbook. They’ve given too much for too long to be talked about as players who magically “don’t care.” DeBoer has done everything he can to get more out of them, but if they hit a wall, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
This is…not good.
Data per Patrick Bacon and visual per JFreshHockey
Hope Ty Dellandrea is okay. Took a brutal (but legal) hit from Ross Colton, and then a Stamkos slapshot to the ankle. He took another shift in the game
The officiating was bad, but I’m not the type to complain about it. Because I’m above it? Hardly. Thing is, officials aren’t there to enforce the details of the rulebook. They’re there to manage score effects. To ensure parity. To “not impact the game” - ya know…by failing to make decisions that impact the game. But inaction is easier to tolerate, now matter how heinous or illogical, than action. It’s a cognitive bias as old as time. So yea, it sucked. But no, it’s not worth discussing.
It’s too early to talk about the 2023 draft but not here! One of the names to watch out for likely to fall in the second is Maxim Strbak. Here’s Corey Pronman’s rundown.
Video highlights here. I’m tired of getting burned on these “good defensively but not enough offense at the NHL level” type defenseman. Dallas is still thin on the right side long term.
No rest for the wicked. Dallas has Florida on Thursday; another team that started out slow, but is currently finding their stride.
No rest for the wicked x2. The games after that? NYI, COL, CHI (inexplicably .500), WPG, COL, STL. Four are at home, but this stretch will tell us a lot about Dallas’ place in the Central. Puck Luck Analytics currently has them projected to finish third.
Buckle up.