Let's Talk About a Stinker: Why Stars Lost 5-4 to the Sharks
Do you "burn the tape" on this one?
I don’t subscribe much to the notion of “lessons learned” after a single game. If you’ve ever seen me complain about the UFC commentary booth of Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier, and Dominick Reyes, you know why: adopting the early narrative is what creates hot takes, bad takes, and all the talking head bluster that accompanies lazy analysis.
Example: Listen how quickly the booth talks up Justin Gaethje’s leg kicks are, and how much that shapes the narrative that Gaethje has the advantage from round to round — since most of you are sane, and correctly find the UFC barbaric, here’s the spoiler: Dustin Poirier counters a Gaethje leg kick seconds into the fourth round, and knocks him the fuck out. When you analyze something at the expense of everything else, it’s no longer analysis.
But…you don’t want to adopt the narrative too late either. Otherwise what insight are you really offering? Why should people take your opinion seriously if you’re not willing to work hard to have one?
Are my insecurities showing?
The time to “burn the tape” was against Winnipeg. But losing 5-4 to a bad team (San Jose) after a two-day rest might be the time to start Asking Questions. About whether or not they’re a good team? No. But I do think we’re getting clarity in some places, mostly for better, some for worse.
Jamie Benn is back (…as long as he stays on the Power Play)
Benn had his best game of the season. We’ll never get Sochi Benn back, but if he can possess the ghost of Sochi Benn every now and then, that’ll be plenty. He had two goals, led the team in shot attempts, and even fed Logan Couture a left hand to let him know what a real two-piece and a biscuit tastes like.
“There’s a ‘but’ isn’t there?”
Yes. More half of his points are on the power play. Granted, that’s not a bad thing. But for 75 percent of the game, his linemates are Wyatt Johnston and Ty Dellandrea—not Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. I mention that because the Johnston line has an expected goal different of 48 percent: second lowest among the six line trios with at least 20 minutes together. That split comes from being second among those six trios in xGoals for…but it also comes from being tied for last in xGoals against.
Does that mean Pete DeBoer should split them up? No. There’s a perfectly reasonable explanation for the line losing the possession battle: Johnston is a rookie, and Dellandrea is basically a rookie himself. It’s possible they just need more time. As they develop, it’s also possible the trend reverses. But as a group, they’re allowing way too many chances. If Benn starts to fall back down to earth, I’d bet we start looking at the source of his even strength struggles, and his line will probably be the best explanation (assuming they don’t turn it around).
Where are you going Mr. Suter?
I realize Ryan Suter is a lightning rod for Stars fans. I’m not here to analyze who he is as a whole (even in his prime he didn’t fit the profile of a typical number one). But if we’re gonna put every Gurianov turnover under a microscope, a veteran who should know better should be fair game. And boy what a game. First, the second goal.
This goal isn’t on him, but he clearly tried to shortcut here, trying to bat down the puck by keeping it from crossing over instead of backing up with a forechecker already behind him. Now, the second goal.
This play looks worse than it is because Suter appears to get clipped by a stick. I won’t criticize him for this one, but that doesn’t mean he played it great. There’s no reason why he should have been in Hintz’ grill to begin with. The way he play unfolds, it’s understandable, but if doesn’t crowd Hintz, he’s never in position to get clipped, which means he’s never out of the position completely when the shot goes off. And lastly, the third goal, which is baffling.
There’s no reason for Suter to bite that hard on the strongside. He’s got reinforcements. Even if he were afraid that Johnston won’t catch up to his man, there’s no reason for him to end up angling himself out of the play.
That’s ‘I’m Gonna Blow This Dude Up Derian Hatcher Style’ posture. Except he doesn’t throw a hit. He just abandons his post for a stickcheck he could have just as easily accomplished doing what he was already doing instead of abruptly skating towards I-35. In Suter’s defense, Johnston and Dellandrea could have been backup. In their defense, they probably expected more from Suter.
Remember that thing I wrote?
This one: about modern scoring creating the modern comeback.
I bring it up because Dallas is a rush team. And rush teams struggle when trailing (it’s easy to see why: you’re more likely to give up odd man rushes the other way in the quest to generate odd man rushes of your own). It’ll be interesting to see how this trend plays out for them. While I believe teams are allowed random bed wettings like the Stars did against Winnipeg, it’s worth noting that when Dallas tried to get back in the game, they were stifled at every turn. Should we expect this? I’m not sure. But we should absolutely be paying attention.
Stray squirrels
Jake Oettinger may or may not have been ready, but all of those shots he faced were perfectly placed from players who had time.
Esa Lindell played 16 minutes (fifth among defenders), and Dallas’ shot attempt percentage increased by 28 points without him (-28 CF%Rel). Nobody will ever write about it (the perception of who he is has outgrown his actual on-ice impact), but his contract is an albatross.
I know. John Klingberg has looked awful in Anaheim. Perhaps they both needed each other.
Tough game for Mason Marchment. Didn’t register a single shot or shot attempt, and only recoded two-dump ins…neither of which were retrieved.
Matej Blumel looked good! We didn’t see him much, and granted, he kind of disappeared after that breakaway, but I liked what I saw. There’s probably a good chance he takes over Denis Gurianov’s spot if a) Gurianov struggles or b) Blumel starts scoring while he’s injured but I say this as a biased-as-all-hell fan of Gury who recognizes his time is running out and it’s currently on him—I’d still argue there are forwards worth taking out before Gury.
I’m putting this here so I don’t have to deal with the blowback. What’s the over/under on when I get to revisit the ‘don’t dismiss my modest proposal’ topic?
Erik Karlsson is phenomenal.
I’ll be starting a Discord server for Stars fans in the next couple of days. If you’re fairly tech-savvy and wouldn’t mind doing cool shit like hosting watch parties, feel free to DM me or leave a comment (I’ll need some moderators too). I’m not leaving Twitter, but I use Discord to play Magic: The Gathering (laugh it up fuzzball) anyway, and never thought how much potential fun it could be as a place for all things Stars. Could be fun!