Let's talk about something else: the threat level in the West

Should the Dallas Stars be looking over their shoulder?

Dallas is gonna be fine. Even if they had lost to the Islanders last night, they’d be fine. Even without Roope Hintz, they’ll be fine. Why? For the most part, the Western Conference sucks. Chicago, Anaheim, Arizona, and San Jose are here for one thing: Connor Bedard. As they should be. Bedard is a generational talent. Hell, I’d argue his shot is already better than anyone in the NHL. His underlying analytics before he went super saiyan this year is bonkers.

Why compare Bedard to Bourque? Because I want to remind Stars fans just how damn good Bourque still is.

“But Mavrik’s AHL numbers.” Piss on that. It’s well-known that playmakers don’t produce well in the AHL. Just look at Hintz, who I think is one of the game’s most assertive, quick-strike passers. His assist totals were straight up mediocre in Texas. The AHL is a north-south league minus the north-south talent. Players like Matias Maccelli (ignore The Athletic for ignoring Maccelli on their Calder last month; when healthy, Maccelli is right there with Beniers as one of the game’s top rookies) are the exception, not the rule. Bourque will be fine.

A lot of teams are shitting the bed hard for Bedard, and they’re mostly in the West. Vancouver will be added to that list as soon as they sell Bo Horvat. St. Louis might not be a darkhorse for the 2023 tankathon, but Binnington could burn the house down at any moment. If they aren’t, Nashville might take their place, given the fact that they’re a mediocre team with one of their best defenseman suddenly available. See? Bedard is so good even the long shots want to play the odds.

Where am I going with all this? Dallas plays most of their games from here on out against the Western Conference. Like I said, they’ll be fine. At least in the standings. Look beyond wins and losses, however, and things aren’t quite what they seem.

The Pacific isn’t the joke people think it is.

Three bottom feeders, and a clash of non-kings; that’s the Pacific for you. But kings get taken by pawns all the time (at least the kings in my games). Vegas is a fantastic team. They’ve controlling an average of 54 percent in expected goal share, which ranks 4th in the league, and they’re not even shooting hot, ranking 20th in SH%. That’s a damn good team with room to get better.

Calgary hasn’t been the juggernaut they were unexpectedly expected to be, but they’re 3rd in corsi for percentage, and 8th in expected goals for. This is still very much a Sutter-coached team, and they’ve been without Oliver Kylington. Calgary, like Vegas, isn’t getting shooting luck from the hockey gods. They may not be the team they were last year, but it’s worth remembering how they were considered last year: the real deal. (Did I call it or did I call it?) Nobody expected Markstrom to self-detonate against Edmonton. He hasn’t been great, but the Flames have also had the toughest schedule of any team through the first half.

Where Vegas and Calgary are models of stability, Edmonton and LA are models of instability that Dallas might have to one day fear. The Oilers are not good. All of their underlying numbers are middle of the road. However, the trade deadline projects to be a big deal, as Edmonton is rumored to be in on Chychrun. The Oilers have to go nuclear this year. McDavid is too good to just limp forward with the current group and hope something happens during magic hour. Edmonton has to be a contender. Any team with McDavid is gonna be a team to respect if they make the playoffs. A healthy Evander Kane won’t hurt either. As poorly managed as the team is, just imagine if they weaponize the deadline into a team that starts giving up less goals. Know your enemy, people.

Then there’s LA. The Kings are downright bizarre if you’re looking strictly at their goal differential. But they have strong underlying numbers, and they finally did the right thing and put Quinton Byfield on the top line. They’re insanely deep, with blue chip offensive talents like Kevin Fiala, Gabriel Vilardi, and Arthur Kaliyev (the game’s most underrated young goal scorer) in their middle six. Just as critically, they have a blueline nobody respects but should; Drew Doughty and Sean Durzi might get the press but Mikey Anderson and Matt Roy are strong-to-decent modern day shutdown defenders.

What I fear about these teams is that they feel like one or two moves away from contending. LA with elite goaltending should scare you. Vegas adding a blue chip forward should scare you. Calgary getting mana from the hockey heavens (or Markstrom just becoming good again) is terrifying. Edmonton letting somebody with brains do Ken Holland’s job for him should send shivers down your spine. All four of these teams, by the by, are top 15 in goals for percentage. They may be flawed, but they’re dangerous. The trade deadline will be brimming with strong additions to the Western arms race.

I know I left out Seattle. They’re sneaky good. I only left them out because I think the above four Pacific teams have the potential to get better whereas Seattle, even if they don’t regress, likely aren’t looking to add. Still, underestimate them at your own peril.

In the Central, it’s just Dallas (as long as they stay healthy) and everyone else until Colorado gets healthy.

The Central might look stronger if we’re looking at points percentage, but looking at rolling averages for expected goal share, and we get a much different picture. Basically, they’ve all been pretty average as possession teams. Here’s each of the Central’s top four in terms of shot attempt control (all situations):

• Colorado: 6th

• Dallas: 8th

• Minnesota: 11th

• Winnipeg: 20th

And here’s their expected goal share:

• Colorado: 15th

• Dallas: 6th

• Minnesota: 10th

• Winnipeg: 19th

I’m not convinced the Central is all that, and certainly not the MDK division of yesteryear. Dallas is the only one profiling like they’ve got their shit together. Colorado, meanwhile, is primed for a brilliant second half. The fact that they’ve controlled the shot attempt share with the amount of injuries they’ve had all year is kind of insane; only six players who have played each game, they’re currently missing half their blueline’s top four, and have had two-thirds of their Cup-winning playoff line (Nichushkin-MacKinnon-Rantanen) play together for just 13 minutes.

That doesn’t mean these other teams don’t deserve respect. With Ehlers back (in terms of raw physical talent, and mechanics, Ehlers tops my personal list of most talented players), Winnipeg has one of the league’s best top sixes in the game. Minnesota always lingers around contention. But it’s not the teams themselves. It’s the fact that the common theme in assessing the threat level is the trade deadline; and everyone else seems to have more room to make a splash than Dallas.

That doesn’t mean Jim Nill can’t. Just that he would have to get creative and aggressive. Dallas doesn’t have any cap room, and they don’t have any dead weight they can easily offload. Radek Faksa has an NTC, and we’ve seen unique talents like Jakub Vrana and Eeli Tolvanen pass through waivers which makes Gurianov a non starter. And yes, the Stars do have problems. Analytically, and Watching The Game puts on full display what a problem Ryan Suter is becoming this year. With Hintz out, we saw first hand what this offense looked like without its top center. We (and I) talk lovingly about how bright the future is. But Dallas only has this year and next to capitalize on Joe Pavelski’s rare combination of off and on-ice value. What’s the Pavelski Window worth? Whether you think Dallas should go all-in or isn’t the point. Can this roster be better? Can Dallas be better at wing? Or on the blueline?

Watching the Islanders game, I saw all the usual: Jason Robertson being one of the game’s elite shooters; the new Wyatt Earp/BMW line (any of these sticking?) driving play; Nils Lundkvist improving; Frederik Olofsson proving he belongs; Miro Heiskanen doing what he does (although he was fighting it last night); and Jake Oettinger proving himself to be one of the best. But there’s still something missing: the defense when Heiskanen wasn’t out there to defend Mathew Barzal; the forwards failing to catch Noah Dobson and Alex Romanov when they activated; and watching depth forwards Zach Parise and Jean-Gabriel Pageau from the opponent actually drive play while the Stars’ bottom six were silent as a crypt.

Dallas may not have holes, but they do have leaks. How easily the latter can turn into the former when your enemies sharpen their knives.

Get out the whetstone, Nill. You’re gonna need it.