Let's yap about a (potential) Star: Jaden Schwartz

What's wrong with more talented Justin Hryckowian?

Let’s give it up to Justin Hryckowian. A rookie and a prayer to make the roster out of camp, he literally fought and played his way onto the top 12, and not only has he proven himself capable — he’s actually proven himself to be the best option next to Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen. Sure, the line hasn’t popped off in terms of production but their underlying numbers are downright scary.

But that’s only one reading of Dallas’ situation. The other way to look at Hryckowian’s presence in the top six is that Dallas doesn’t have a top six real enough to push a bottom six player into the bottom six where he belongs. I don’t know if that’s fair or not, but what I do know is that no NHL team will be satisfied with a mystery box rookie in their top six. Especially if they can upgrade.

And no NHL team loves to upgrade like upgrading with a player past their prime. Of course, that can be a cynical way to look at things. Speaking for myself, I would certainly like to believe that old does not equal bad (well, my back on the other hand…). And that brings us to a veteran who still has the juice. Seattle forward and former Blue — and for the purpose of fitting into Dallas’ push without breaking the bank, an impending UFA — Jaden Schwartz.

I’ve long been a fan of Schwartz. He’s one of those classic subtle players whose production doesn’t do justice to all the little things he does from shift to shift. While he’s fully in the twilight of his career, he yet to fade to black. The way I’ve always thought of Schwartz is Patrick Eaves if Eaves had been a playmaker.

Right now, Schwartz is still showing that he’s a proper two-way forward. Which is important, since that added defensive support is exactly what the duo with Johnston and Rantanen could use (in part because both players have extremely poor defensive impacts this year, as well as last). However, he sort of fits in offensively too as a player who can finish.

Below is Schwartz’ Goals Above Replacement chart. This is essentially the same thing — a stew of mathematical work to assess Schwartz’ EV offense, EV defense, special teams, and penalty differential to weigh against his fellow cohort — but in plus/minus form. For some people, plus/minus is more intuitive.

Same story: strong defensive impacts, strong on the PK, and won’t put his team shorthanded.

Part of where Schwartz really adds to the texture of Dallas’ forward lineup is that he’s a lot better than either Steel and Hryckowian as a puck protector, which makes him much more effective and able to sustain an attack with elite forwards during pressure on the cycle. He's also faster; slowed as he’s aged, sure, but certainly faster than most of Dallas’ forwards.

His scheduled value won’t wow you, but it will help drive play.

Again, I love that Schwartz has so many layers. He adds offense to the rush, but where I think he makes the perfect Hryckowian replacement is in how Schwartz is still effective on the forecheck as well. This is a player who is totally blue collar, but not without white collar skill.

In fact, Schwartz’ shot appears to be more durable than ever, as he’s near his career high in getting pucks on net (literally), and wiring shots that are less likely to be blocked.

The path for Schwartz is very obvious here: he’s a veteran forward who actively upgrades a position (left wing) that Dallas needs to upgrade in the first place. In fact, I would go so far as to argue that finding the perfect winger for Johnston and Rantanen is priority number one; yes, above finding a top four defender next to Thomas Harley.

Before you start typing something angry in the comments, keep in mind I am only saying that with the assumption that Dallas can only choose one or the other given their assets. Also, I am starting from the assumption that Dallas’ offense is a bigger problem than their defense. Go beyond the team’s goals-for total (did the losing streak exposing the previous PDO bender they were on not teach us anything?), and look at possession and shot quality and it’s all but black and white: Dallas’ defense is sustainable. Their offense is not. Ergo…make the offense sustainable.

Is Schwartz the fix, though? Probably not. In addition to the fact that Schwartz is almost never healthy.

In the context of a player who can win games, he’s not that kind of player. However, I feel like this misunderstands the Dallas problem. I don’t believe the Stars need another big name. They need to improve the margins; one of the reason why I consider Zach Whitecloud so perfect as a blue line add. Right now they have role players playing the role they were not acquired for instead of players in roles they excel at. Schwartz excels as a middle six, two-way playmaker (it’s worth noting that the Kraken always juggling their top six, he’s also done it without any real lineup consistency from season to season). In many ways, Schwartz is the player Mikael Granlund’s publicist told us he was: playmaker, can finish, hard on the forecheck, good defense, and a red-light performer (Schwartz being a Cup champ who scored 20 points in 26 games on the way to a Blues championship).

Is Schwartz all that at this stage of his career? No. But he didn’t disappear either. Besides, if he were that guy, he’d be a very expensive guy. Thankfully for Dallas, he’s not. It’s a classic case of low risk, high(ish) reward.