Light Work: Roster cuts and thoughts on Emil Hemming going to Cedar Park

Interesting move.

There were a predictable amount of players ‘cut’ from the Dallas Stars roster this weekend.

Tristan Bertucci, Emil Hemming (more on that in a bit). Gavin White, Curtis McKenzie, et cetera. For the most part, this is all standard operating procedure. As are the number of spots left, with Adam Erne, Justin Hryckowian and Arttu Hyry remaining on the forward side, and Alexander Petrovic and Vladislav Kolyachonok remaining on the defensive side.

It’s worth remembering that none of this really changes much. When the Stars start the season, this (or some variation) will be the lineup.

Data and visual courtesy of Louis Boulet.

Sam Steel will likely get bumped into the top six, which leaves some combination of Colin Blackwell or Oskar Bäck playing on that third line. Blackwell has spent most of his time in Dallas as a right wing, but he has experience at all forward positions, Dallas included (it was evident last season that it had been awhile since he last played center, as he went -6 in faceoff differential).

Blackwell makes the most sense since he has quite a few more offensive chops, and thus makes the most sense in the top nine. But that is only an assumption. Glen Gulutzan may want one of the more defensive fourth liners higher in the lineup.

One thing worth noting with Boulet’s model — well, two actually — is that without Benn, the roster drops three points in the standings. Again, it’s only a model. In the grand scheme of things, Benn will be back. Nonetheless, I find it worth noting. The other is that each line and each duo is given a chemistry boost. Steel next to Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin rates slightly higher in Boulet’s model, as does Benn next to Wyatt Johnston and Mavrik Bourque. Not much of a shocker, but still.

Fans on our Discord (still waiting for Gavin Spittle to fix his account) found some of the lingering names a bit odd, Erne especially. Erne had a couple of moments in the NHL where he was a slightly above replacement level forward — including a pair of 20 point seasons, one with Tampa Bay and one with Detroit — but that time has passed.

Need a casual fan’s guide to the graph above? Click here!

However, these issues aren’t always about which player is the best, but which player fits the role best.

With Erne, the expectation would be that he’s a healthy scratch forward. If he plays, he can give you an NHL shift given his NHL experience. Granted, this logic is hardly unassailable. Isn’t what happens within those shifts more important? I’d agree. But what happens to a player who is still developing like, Hyry, to be given none at all?

I suspect this is the challenge. Hyry has, to these eyes at least, been far and away the most impressive forward. I don’t think it’s close, and not just because I got googly eyes for his game versus Colorado. Nonetheless, a developing forward has to play shifts. ‘Fish gotta swim,’ to quote Omar. In which case, isn’t Hyry more valuable taking AHL shifts? The same argument could be made for Hryckowian, who was dynamite in the AHL last season, especially in the playoffs. If you believe these two players can develop further, then they need to play, period. This is not a case for Erne so much as it is a case for roles and context. And of course, the Stars are thin at left wing without Benn. Not right wing.

There’s also the discussion of how the Stars want to play the dynamic between Alex Petrovic and Vladislav Kolyachonok depending on whether or not they want to keep an extra forward. Hey, I told you not to blink.

Last but certainly not least is Hemming. This one took me by surprise.

I’ve documented Hemming’s game here, here — everywhere really. It’s a complicated one. By any definition, his season was a mixed bag at the absolute best. Did his strong finish negate his tough start? Even if it did, doesn’t that fuel the case for keeping him in the OHL? Shouldn’t Hemming prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that he was above the CHL? If so, it would have made sense to keep him there. Dallas chose not to.

What’s unique here is that there aren’t many case studies. Friend of the Discord and prospect writer Andrew Epps brought up Michael Bunting and Mason Marchment. Except Bunting scored 74 points in 57 games before he transitioned into the AHL. Hemming scored 48 in 60. Although Marchment is a good example of someone who didn’t put up big numbers, even as he transitioned into the AHL, Marchment is also an extremely rare case.

Is Dallas banking on Hemming doing something similar? I can certainly see the case. To clarify, I don’t have an issue with this move. I just find it curious, and atypical. Hemming certainly has the features of a player who doesn’t need to dominate the CHL in order to play a pro shift. He already has a pro frame. He’s got quickness, a strong shot, and his two-way play was evident when he played both sides of special teams — effectively — for the Colts. Dallas’ scouts have been nothing if not very good at identifying maturity, and Hemming is a mature player.

It should also be said that Dallas might have also seen something more nuanced in the game away from Hemming; namely that the Colts (despite being very good) were a poor offensive team. Cole Beaudoin and Kashawn Aitcheson were the only heavy hitters on the team, and one was a defensemen, with the other playing a somewhat generic two-way forward game. I could see the Stars not liking Hemming’s environment, and feeling like Barrie might get in the way of his development. Hemming is still a shooter by trade, and that team neither had nor has any playmakers to help him create; or for that matter, to create for others.

In Texas, Hemming may experience a significant step up in competition, but he’s also guaranteed to play with linemates who will get a lot more out of his offense. In other words, rather than be about Hemming in the broad strokes of his development, this move might represent a specific mission to improve his puckwork with players who know puck in the first place.

In addition, Texas is starting the season with a lot of injuries to the forward group, between Kyle McDonald, Cameron Hughes, and Chase Wheatcroft. This is a major vote of confidence in Hemming, in my view. This doesn’t mean we’ll see Hemming on an NHL roster sooner. It’s worth emphasizing that this move is not without risk. But it does mean that the Stars are looking to be proactive here about a player they believe in.