Precap: Dallas vs. Winnipeg, why it matters, and why it doesn't

This is not your typical matchup. Or is it?

Do they build these molds out of Barney Rubble’s face?

There’s an element of comedy to it all. The Dallas Stars are the third best team in the league. And yet everyone is shaking in their boots over a potential first-round matchup with the team they’re ranked (well) above. Sounds cheesy, right?

Not really. There are many different minds on this. The Stars are an incredible team, with the kind of shooting talent that can outscore any problem. The Stars are also a loose defensive team whose blueline will be exploited even worse than it has already if they can’t avoid a first-round matchup with Colorado — who might be getting a (potentially) crucial reinforcement no less. The Stars also have goalies who can keep Dallas in any game. Et cetera.

I’ve said my peace, ad nauseum. Regardless, a regulation loss more or less guarantees a first-round matchup with Colorado now that St. Louis can’t catch the Avs (Colorado beat Vegas 3-2 the other night). A win makes things a bit more interesting, but Winnipeg’s schedule after Dallas is Chicago, Edmonton, and Anaheim. So the Stars would need to win the rest of their matchups (Detroit, Utah, and Nashville) and hope the Jets drop two. The math is technically more complicated, but it’s probably safe to call this one.

Why it matters

A lot has been made about how past Cup winners have also “backed into” the playoffs too. Dallas in 2020 famously did so too. But there’s a difference between lagging behind and suffering the fatigue of an 82-game season, and — like the current Stars — simply getting outplayed on a nightly basis.

In terms of broad possession (or share of shot attempts), that’s exactly what’s happening.

For the Stars, the concern should be less about who plays who, and more about who they are. Whether it’s round one, two or three, at some point you have to wonder how long the current bad habits will continue to follow them. This is a team with aspirations of winning a Cup, not surviving a round.

For context, only the top line is winning the shot quality battle, and they’re doing it by a hair of 51 percent. That’s a massive departure from the top line with Joe Pavelski several years ago who controlled 59 percent of Dallas’ expected goal share and led the league. The same is true of the defense pairs. Only the Lian Bichsel-Matt Dumba pair is avoiding the shot share abyss. Esa Lindell with Codi Ceci are particularly heinous, with shots in favor of the opponent 115-177 at even-strength when they’re on the ice.

In other words, this game matters because Dallas’ chemistries need to start clicking. This is not a group that needs to ‘bounce back’ in order to be back in the black. They need to reinvent themselves. Quickly. Yes, they’re a top three team in the league. But one of the teams above them they’ll likely play in the second round if they make it, and the team they’ll likely play in the first round is only behind them three spots.

Why it doesn’t

The Stars are in the playoffs, where all bets are off.

They’re still an elite team when it comes to goal-differential because they have so many ways to outscore their opponent: better goaltending, better shooting percentage, and better shot quality.

If anything, a case could be made — and apologies to the person whose point I stole this from — that it’s time to wind down. Loosen up, mix up the defense pairs, try new forward trios, and maybe even ease up on the minutes.

These are dumb suggestions from a know-nothing non-coach, but regular season games shouldn’t carry with them a life-or-death importance. Dallas has a lot to be proud of, regardless of the recent stretch, and a lot of players should welcome the clean slate. Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley have only just begun their already-sterling careers. Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz have found their necessary gears, Mavrik Bourque and Lian Bichsel have exceeded expectations despite their inexperience, and Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith know their respective roles.

None of this is to gloss over Dallas’ very real problems. On the contrary, we have every reason to expect Dallas’ problems to follow them. But tonight’s contest should reflect neither highs nor lows.

Rather. Just another dance before the prizefight.