Real Talk: Training Camp Battles to Watch, Jim Nill's Comments, And An Observation About Last Season

As they say in Mortal Kombat. "It has begun!"

Hockey hasn’t officially started, but informally, it’s cooking. One thing I want to do before we get this show started is to thank each and every subscriber. Honestly, I didn’t expect the Traverse City coverage to do much more than give the hardcore fans a little red meat. Instead I saw a massive — well, for a podunk hockey Substack like mine anyway — influx of subscribers, which was awesome, if a little unexpected.

Does that mean anything special for Stars Stack coverage? What’s clear besides this little train-that-could exceeding my expectations is not only that there’s an appetite for the deepest cut of hockey coverage (five posts about a three-game, live-streamed prospect tournament), but also how whole Stars fans want their hockey coverage to be. You don’t just want to read thoughts about Logan Stankoven in victory green. You want to watch his story unfold, starting with Traverse City. And that’s awesome.

You get that, I appreciate it, and now I’m gonna deliver. Because of that, I’ll be covering the Texas Stars here too. It won’t be on Stephen Meserve’s level, but I’ll be doing a weekly report. (Speaking of, if you’re not following him, please do so.) There’s a ton of young talent on that team, Stankoven, Bourque, and Bichsel included, so now is as good a time as any to keep tabs on Dallas’ brightest young talent. I’ll have some general prospect coverage as well. While Dallas had most their top prospects in Traverse City, Aram Minnetian and Ayrton Martino are two of the better players in the system. Needless to say, we should be following them too.

I don’t know where this is all going, but I know this much: there’s no such thing as halfway coverage at this place.

His name…is Horace.

What’s the training camp battle to watch?

Here’s the official training camp roster.

Sidebar: the presence of Jordie Benn and Derrick Pouliot is fascinating, but don’t read much into it.

Don’t expect much out of training camp. This one of those rare years where Dallas has prospects that are primed to make a difference, but not so ready that the Stars can’t afford to let them cook in the AHL. All of their top prospects will be just an I-35 away (people make it sound next door, but we’re talking about a three-hour drive that is the opposite of fun).

Oddly enough, the real training camp battles are on the NHL roster. Starting with the fourth line, it’s Sam Steel, Ty Dellandrea, and Craig Smith duking it out for two spots. Most of just assume that Smith is guaranteed a roster spot. And he will. But it’s worth remembering that Smith won’t be on the PP, and he’s not a penalty killer. If his performance starts to wane, don’t be surprised if he’s the odd man out by the trade deadline. I wouldn’t expect it and I’m not saying it, but Steel and Dellandrea both need to be playing, and they’re oddly more well-rounded despite the experience Smith has on them.

There are only two other battles. The first is how set in stone the Tyler Seguin line is. Pairing him with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene is probably the right move. Duchene may even be just what the puck doctor ordered. With his speed, the line finally has legs. But defensively, they’re gonna have their nose open.

Sidebar: I know I poo poo defense when it comes to forwards, but it’s really about roles. In the bottom six, I don’t like defensive forwards because due to lack of minutes, I don’t think their defensive ability is the asset it’s assumed to be since they don’t play enough…whereas if your best forwards in your biggest minutes are a liability, well that’s different.

In fact, during my in-depth chart back in July, using JFresh’s WAR roster builder, the Seguin line graded out as the worst defensively by a solid margin. If they struggle at all, don’t be surprised if the lines get juggled. DeBoer and his staff may also opt for more of a classic lineup, turning the bottom six into goulash, and creating two veritable scoring lines with the Hintz and friends, and Benn-Johnston-Duchene. If Johnston has a next level, why not further capitalize on it?

The other one revolves around Lian Bichsel.

If you haven’t read Sean’s piece on him at EPRinkside, do it.

Nobody is saying that Bichsel will start the year in victory green, or even that he’s ready (though I would argue, he is). For one, it would suggest that Dallas is willing to bounce Nils Lundkvist (the only viable target) yet again. Nill paid a heavy price to get him, and everyone sounds like they’re on the same page when it comes to letting him develop. Plus, apparently, he’s on that Lou Ferrigno diet.

But here’s the thing: Lundkvist offers Dallas an upgrade from a position of abundance (offense). Bichsel offers Dallas an upgrade from a position of shortage (defense). The team already has a script for this. It’s the same one they used for Thomas Harley, which paid massive dividends if his performance is any indication. Obviously, Lundkvist should be nowhere near the crosshairs if he’s playing well. And even if he weren’t, I could think of somebody else to take his place (cough, Suter), but just saying: there might be more blueline flux than we thought. Maybe not right out the gate, but eventually.

Thoughts on Jim Nill’s Thoughts

Nill was available to (what’s left) of Dallas Stars media.

On the whole it was nothing terribly revealing or even interesting. That’s not a criticism, but just a reality of the business and a reflection of Nill’s character. He’s not out to be the center of attention, and to the extent that he is, it’s to make sure people want to watch a competitive team chase Lord Stanley.

But now you know the drill.

We like where we’re at. Kids will get chances if they earn it. We’re happy with our roster. Coaches have done a good job. We can win. But we have to be prepared.

Et cetera.

Usually, these interviews are more interesting for what’s not said. But this is not the first time Nill has talked about injuries. At his end-of-year conference, he brought up — unprompted — how blessed Dallas was to be almost entirely healthy. I do wonder if the little sweatbeads are forming on Nill’s forehead, thinking about the 2016-2017 season all over again. That was the follow-up year to a season in which Dallas was the best in the West…at least until they ran into the St. Louis Blues.

To clarify, I don’t believe Nill is skeptical at all about Dallas’ prospects. The Stars are an elite team. Scratch that: one of the best teams in the league. But he’s been in the business long enough to know how easily the best laid plans can crumble. Hell, we saw it last year with the Boston Bruins. Despite setting historical records and only losing 12 games all year, they were ousted in the first round against a Florida team that was lucky just to make it, as Pittsburgh shit the bed down the stretch (Buffalo was never expected to make it but they too needed just one win to kick the Panthers out of the placeoff race). The point? In MMA, the best fighters don’t always win. In hockey, the best teams don’t always win. Better to be lucky than good, etc.

Nill knows what’s up. He’s not afraid. He’s just not counting his chickens before they hatch. Speaking of, let’s talk about those chickens from last year.

What happened to Dallas in the final 20 games?

Because Dallas such a complete team, it was hard to notice that they kind of cratered at the end…before the playoffs ever started.

Notice the trend on the bottom two charts?

Data and visuals courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy

The final stretch there at the end saw an all-out defensive bloodletting. Of course, if you’re a diligent reader, you already know why. Nobody had the insane workload that Jake Oettinger had. Dallas’ even strength save percentage in the last 20 games of the regular season ranked 22nd. Meanwhile, their expected goals-for ranked 23rd. And yet…their expected goals-against during that stretch ranked fourth overall.

In other words: they were good defensively, bad offensively, and had porous netminding. It’s the last two that deserve emphasis. Dallas was 21st in medium danger goals against, and 21st in low danger goals against. So Oettinger was slowing down before the playoffs ever started.

That’ll be the challenge for DeBoer, and really, the Dallas organization. I’ve talked at length about Dallas’ offense being a semi-mirage thanks to a blueline that mutes its potential. These are nitpicks really, but that’s how Vegas beat them: nitpicking Miro Heiskanen, who couldn’t defer to a capable partner, as well as a forward group that is extremely dangerous, but not necessarily well-rounded.

Of course, the other challenge being willing to trust their capable backup talent, and not run Oettinger into an overworked brickwall.