Six stats that need a resolution in 2024
Happy new year, Stars fans! Now let's get right back to business.
Did the real Stars finally show up? We can forego the role of discerning critic for now because really, that was as dominant a win as it gets. Assuming Colorado beats San Jose (with Winnipeg beating Minnesota), it’ll likely leave them at third in the Central. It’s tight at the top, but that’s usually how the top three spots in the division work. (Well, except for the Metro.)
The best sign was seeing who got involved. Sam Steel had two goals, which was big. Steel has already earned cred from the Stars fanbase. Everyone knew when he won the spot over Ty Dellandrea. However, with consistency well established, now he’s making an impact. What more can be said? Scott Wedgewood. Matt Duchene becoming The Big Hurt. Nils Lundkvist with two assists in his last two. The top line coming alive. It’s all coming together right?
Well let’s certainly hope so. Because there’s a lot that needs to continue going right for Dallas to end up with a better playoff seed for the new year.
On the surface, Dallas is a solid team. They’re quite above average, even. But they’re also quite complicated.
There’s a lot more blue than red, which is a good sign. But they’re not elite in any one category. And that’s what the numbers we’re about to get to are all about.
Before I forget: Happy New Year! I like to think of this place as our place. Pretty sweet week we got lined up so as long you keep reading, I’ll keep writing. I’m thankful for each and every one of you, and while I don’t believe in this resolution mumbo jumbo, I do hope you’re taking it one day at a time.
11.318 chances off zone entries per 60
The Dallas Stars are a bizarre contradiction, defensively. They have a reputation for being good defensively. Are they? I don’t know. By the lazy metric of Goals Against, they don’t. They’re 22nd (!) in goals against per 60. Conversely, nerdonauts will traditionally look at expected goals-against per hour to broadly measure team defense. After all, it’s a shift-to-shift assessment of shot quality allowed. By that metric, Dallas ranks 4th (!). So which is it?
This reminds me of those Rick Bowness years, and how Dallas would rate extremely well in terms of expected goals-for, yet had an extremely low shooting percentage. My theory as to why remains — there are levels to shot quality, so if a team is taking high quality shots using low percentage methods (like rebounds from point shots instead of rush attacks), then there you have it. I’m not sure it’s correct, but it feels correct.
I mention this because I suspect this is why Dallas rates so well of keeping shot quality down, yet so low in keeping the goals down. Conceding low and medium danger shots is better than allowing a high danger chance, but if teams are generating those chances with high percentage methods, then all accounts are balanced in the end?
That seems to be the case per Corey Sznajder’s tracking data. Dallas allows 11.318 chances off zone entries per 60. That ranks 22nd in the NHL.
So am I saying their expected goals against a lie? Am I questioning the math? Yes and no. In the same way I feel like those Bowness teams were more conservative than their shot quality indicated, I think what we’re seeing is a defense that’s a little more volatile than their shot suppression indicates.
Working theory or not, this needs to change.
16:34 per game
Speaking of change, that’s Thomas Harley’s icetime per game in all situations. It’s been trending up.
But we should be past this at this point. Harley is easily Dallas’ second best three-zone defender right now.
That doesn’t mean I think Harley is perfect. If you go back to my lengthy video analysis of him, you’ll notice that not a ton has changed, despite some noted improvements. However, I wouldn’t expect a ton to change. It was only months ago that Harley became a top six fixture on this blueline.
However, that’s what the challenge is for. Challenge Harley to be better in the defensive zone with more DZO shifts, or more shifts on the PK. Harley is being groomed to take over Esa Lindell’s job. He’s gonna need to start taking some of Lindell’s shifts.
2.68 expected goals-for per hour
This ranks 17th in the NHL. It’s odd, but Dallas is a surprisingly average offensive team. I don’t know what the fix is here except that a better blueline might help the breakouts, which in turn, will help the entries. But I’ll expand a bit on this with my piece this week for D Magazine on the top line, who haven’t quite exorcized their devil-lets.
$3.2 million annual average salary
Radek Faksa was once again a healthy scratch. However, he was the healthy scratch on a night in which the fourth line earned three points. What are the chances DeBoer screws with that anytime soon? If Dallas wants to make a serious move to improve the blueline, they absolutely have to move his contract out. Of course, who is taking on that contract is the question. San Jose makes some sense. Grier seems to like players like Faksa, and they have too much money coming off this season, which means they need some players with term. This wouldn’t be a move for someone on San Jose’s roster. Just a move to clear cap, like Colorado did with Tomas Tatar. Nill’s not the type to do this, but he should be. Especially since it’s wasting away in the pressbox anyway.
Minus-4
That’s the Wyatt Johnston line’s even strength plus minus. I don’t know that there’s an easy fix. Even my personal rec, that it should Craig Smith, doesn’t feel like a long term solution. That’s what makes moving Faksa’s contract so urgent. Beyond just the cap flexibility, you also open a window to bring Logan Stankoven up. Speaking of!
76 points
That’s how many points Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque have. Both have 38 a piece through 28 games. I don’t want to sound the #FreeCedarPark alarm. There’s nothing wrong giving a prospect a full seasons worth of AHL action the way Columbus did for David Jiricek, or Buffalo with Jiri Kulich despite them proving that they’re too good for the AHL. Stankoven and Bourque are too good for the AHL. But that doesn’t mean a full season won’t do them some good.
What it does mean is that you can’t keep them there for long. That means in 2024, Dallas will have to likely decide between Pavelski or Duchene. I know we’re getting ahead of ourselves. But so are Stankoven and Bourque. You can’t fall behind an inch in a quest for Lord Stanley. When it gets down to the marrow, will the wonder twins get to join that quest? To me that’s the most fascinating question of 2024.
I just want to say that Scott Wedgewood has totally surprised me. I didn’t think he was near good enough to be a everyday net minder. Boy was I wrong. It looks like he just needed the reps he wasn’t getting in practice. I know how this is going to sound but he has looked better than Otter before Otter got hurt. I am not saying Wedgewood should be the starter but we should not see anymore stretches of Otter starting 10 in a row. I am thinking maybe Wedgewood should get 2 out of 5 at least. And before you wear Wedgewood out give Murray a start. See who he is.
I can think of several reasons to let Duchene walk after this year (age, cost, possibility of waning motivation), but he is the driving force behind Seguin and Marchment's strong showings. Pavelski is arguably the most important part of the leadership core. In a perfect world, both take team friendly contracts.
Trading Bourque, Stankoven, or Bischel for a top 4 RD that is not a rental would be painful, but necessary. I put Bischel in there because he seems like a high ceiling headache. After he was drafted, he surprised everyone by not going to world junior training camp because he "needed a break". This year he went back to Europe despite the fact that the place to learn to play NHL style jockey is the AHL. Most assumed he wanted to represent Switzerland in World Junior, which would have shown against the best of his age group, but no again. I see Val N. 2.0. He will mature and succeed after he and The Stars have already burned too many bridges.