Stars Stack Mailbag: Lots of Nils Lundkvist and Radek Faksa questions get answered
But don't worry, we cover other stuff.
No preamble, this time. Ya’ll put me in a jigsaw trap asking so many questions about Nils Lundkvist and Radek Faksa so let’s get right to the mailbag. Super quick: I noticed a modest influx of paid subscribers. For those who are new here I try to keep a rough schedule of two free posts, and one paid post per week. Sometimes I’ll post more, but never less. If you’re curious what paid posts look like, here’s a complete list of articles written for paid subscribers.
What pieces do you think are on the table come trade deadline? Picks, prospects, players, oh my!
In terms of pieces available, it's always hard to say with Jim Nill. He's not like most, if any other GM. That's why he's so well-respected. He's sympathetic to the human side of it all, which is why guys don't get moved just to make way for other moves. I have a hard time envisioning Radek Faksa (beyond just the inherent difficulty of his contract in a flat cap world) being moved just to be moved. However, we've seen Nill make moves against type over the last two years between trading a first round pick for Lundkvist, and the unceremonious kicking to the curb of Colin Miller.
If we're trying to be realistic about the pieces Nill could make available, here's what I think: Lundkvist, Hakanpaa (although not both at the same time), next year’s third round pick (Dallas doesn’t have a third rounder this year), and Ty Dellandrea. If Nill is up to his usual bag of tricks, then he’s gonna give up items around the edges. I could see Nill feeling like Lundkvist, no matter where he's headed development wise, won't be an option once the playoffs roll around. The writing is on the wall, and has been since last year. Hakanpaa is a guy I could see getting moved for someone like Tanev, or a Tanev type. Dallas needs a top four defender, and Hakanpaa is played like one despite not being one. Dellandrea, same story as Lundkvist. He's a player who teams will gladly take for nothing. I would argue that teams lacking forward depth would be insane not to be calling on. 27 points as a 22 year old ranks 209th out of 558 players of the age since 2007. It’s nothing earth shattering, but the names hovering around a point total like that are respectable: Jack McBain, Ryan Strome, Lars Eller, Lawson Crouse, and Ryan Hartmen just to name a few.
Is Mason Marchment an impact player on his line with Seguin and Duchene, or is he a passenger whose place could be taken without a significant decline in the lines productivity? I hate doing this but I get that it's probably easier for people to process so let's go.
Eye Test: I watched a lot of video of Mason Marchment last season and thus wrote an extensive film room review of him here at the Stack. If you haven’t read it or aren’t a paid subscriber then [insert sales goo about why should pay for my writing or whatever]
The verdict was that I felt like the elements were there in a vacuum. He's always been surprisingly good in transition thanks to his clever puck handling to offset his lack of footspeed, he has an above average shot, and he would need someone on his line to help him make that movement/shooting combo easier on his legs by dominating the neutral zone. Enter Matt Duchene, and voila! My long winded point here is that Marchment is not a player who can drive a line, but I think he can excel at capitalizing on the chances a line creates. Like a decent drummer who may lack the technical wizardry of his peers, but who can stay on beat, and crush those notes when they need punctuation. Like a Lars Ulrich!
Analytics: When it comes to performance, and the strict minutiae of what players accomplish on their own, I always feel like Corey Sznajder’s work does the trick. At least if we’re analyzing fast and loose.
In Florida, Marchment was a chance creator, fueled by successfully breaking into the opponent’s zone with control and heavy/effective on the forecheck.
In Dallas last season, Marchment was a heavy(ish) chance creator, fueled by successfully(ish) breaking into the opponent’s zone with control and heavy/effective at forcing uncontrolled exits on the forecheck, though less successful at retrieving the puck like he was in Florida. (See what Corey calls the “pressures per 60”.)
This season, Marchment is a chance creator, no longer fueled by successfully breaking into the opponent’s zone with control, or heavy/effective on the forecheck, but has gone bananas on creating chances off the forecheck.
So in answer to Mark’s question, no, I don’t think Marchment is essential to that line, but he does offer a specific contribution to it: namely his above average ability to transition and forecheck. Granted, that’s not happening this year, but I think there’s specific value that offsets the broad value he’s lacking; not enough to call him essential, but enough to say that he’s contributing beyond just Moar Goals.
Does the hockeyviz sG model for Faksa impact your evaluation of his value to the team.
No. For those that don’t know, here’s Faksa’s value per Micah Blake McCurdy’s synthetic goal model.
While this might look a little weird — okay: SUPER weird — I understand what the data is saying. Basically, Faksa’s scheduled, shift-to-shift value is broadly as good as a second line center. Why? Because his defense is so good. It’s so good that no matter how bad he is offensively, he’ll always be a net plus. So why doesn’t this change my opinion of Faksa’s value?
Because first principles: a forward needs to have some level of offense just as a defensemen needs to have some level of defense. Faksa doesn’t play enough minutes for his defense to impact the game as disproportionately as the data suggests. The model respects his net rating in a vacuum, which is why Honka rated in sG as a first pairing defensemen. It’s probably not a coincidence that both played limited minutes. Notice how Faksa’s seasons under Bowness, when he was played like a second line center, completely cratered.
Gm David! With Faksa being scratched more often, it begs the question: When will the Stars have the cap room to call up Bourque and/or Stankoven? Would it require some “cap gymnastics”?
Is Radek on his way out? I don't know any other solution that he stays and they acquire someone at the deadline.
Why does everyone want to talk about Faksa?
To Clint’s question, per cap friendly, Dallas will have $1.9 million to work with come the deadline. So they won’t have to make any moves to bring up Stankoven and Bourque if they want. They would need to wait until after the deadline when a roster can exceed the normal 23 player max (currently at 22). The real question is who’s coming out?
To Mooterus4life’s point, I don’t think Faksa is on his way out. Nobody’s taking that contract.
i'd find some so let's go with this one. How'd you describe a Tyler Seguin's roster position in the years since covid season and now?
Seguin’s story is a unique one. In 2021, I thought he’d be the player he is now. With the right support, now he is. Seguin is the rare example of a player successfully remaking himself; from goal scorer to two-way role player. It was a transition forced on him due to injuries, but what a transition it’s been.
Based on the three games since Miro's injury. Do you think this was great for Nils and also my I add in there Suter? Nils is having some really good games and Sut seems...well...solid...in my Beer League experienced observation.
Lundkvist has been good in Heiskanen's absence. I would argue, Lundkvist has been fine all season, hence why I defend him: unlike Honka, who couldn't produce in limited minutes, Lundkvist is actually producing in limited minutes — in fact, he’s 15th in even strength points per hour among 228 defenders with at least 200 minutes — so why all the commotion? (Although Honka had a way different roster, and a way different system.)
I don't know. What I do know is that it's the first time Lundkvist appears to be separating himself from his reputation. The book on Lundkvist is the same as any depth puck mover: the offense needs to be strong enough to compensate for the lack of defense. That's why, until recently, even someone like Tony DeAngelo had a steady career despite bouncing around from team to team: his defense sucked. But he could rack up points in limited minutes.
Sometimes you get lucky, and that little engine that could is not only good at generating offense, but their defense is much better than anticipated, like noted Harrison Ford catcher, Sam Girard (Colorado). Sometimes you don't, and their adventurous impulses exceed their grasp, like Honka. Sometimes you get something in between, like Travis Dermott, who fell out of favor in Toronto, and Vancouver, but who is experiencing a minor renaissance in Arizona. I don't know where Lundkvist fits into these PMD categories but he’s playing like he belongs on the everyday roster.
With the very good performance of Nils last night do you think it moved the needle much for the coaching staff.
No. I think they’re happy with his performance, but Lundkvist can’t just change the weather (having a good game instead of a bad game). He has to change the climate (rewiring the reputation the coaches have of him).
do nils and Suter have something or is the sample size not enough? If that pairing works, I think it would open up some options for a better whole D-corp.
Hilariously, Suter with Lundkvist are 65 percent in expected goal share in their 49 minutes together. They were 54 percent in expected goal share in 447 minutes last year. The issue, unfortunately, is that it’s all loaded by their chance creation when on ice. Defensively, they’re poor.
What’s up David, MBTendy from HF
Have you heard anything about what the Stars plan on doing next season with their uniforms? I believe this szn is Adidas’ last before moving on to fanatics
Yo yo! (For those don’t know, I get around. Beyond just my Discord channel, you’ll find me posting on DBD, Twitter obviously, Reddit, and even the sassy HFboards. I grew up on internet forums, both large and small, and have always found comfort — and outrage — in community discussion.)
I’m a tough sell when it comes to jerseys. For one, I wouldn’t spend money on clothing I can only wear once. Second, jersey designs mostly bore me. Three, Fanatics charges $200 for a regular ass jersey. And then there’s the jersey quality, which The Hockey Guy did a good job of comparing re: Fanatics vs. Adidas. The Noche Mexicana jerseys were slick though. Those should be made available. I should probably ask Al! Who I interviewed in 2021.
Do you believe Nill’s attachment to Suter and Faksa will preclude Dallas from any significant upgrades? Any way I shake it, they can’t add a Tanev/Savard type to the backend without moving one of 20/12/2, and moving 2 just creates a new hole.
Pretty much. But for different reasons. Suter they literally can’t trade, and Faksa they figuratively can’t. Buying out Suter this summer should have been the move, but what’s done is done. Basically, don’t expect anything drastic.
If you could go back in time and stop Nill from offering a contract to a player, whose would it be? Pick one from the current roster and then another from Nills entire tenure with the Stars.
Oh man. This is juicy! Thanks for the heater, Cameron.
Nill’s entire tenure: This one’s easy for me, and I know it’s gonna prompt some gasps but the correct answer is Esa Lindell. First let me say that my opinions about Lindell have evolved. From the minute Lindy Ruff lazily stapled him next to John Klingberg’s hip, I questioned the wisdom of “symmetry over chemistry” at DBD, which is what that pair was. That pair wasn’t some respect for the two player’s interlinking skills the way it is for Devon Toews and Cale Makar. No, it was a zippity doo dah “offensive guy with defensive guy” logic. I’ve always been critical of Lindell for the organization thinking Lindell is actually Ekholm, or diet Slavin. However, it’s hard to argue with his defensive impacts, analytically, and so I think I’ve reached a place where I believe Lindell is Mary in the Black and White Room: Lindell a black and white scientist forced into a world filled with color. So needless to say, my feelings about Lindell are complex. So why is this so easy?
Because I think defensemen who know a world filled with color are much more valuable. Think about Lindell’s contract, think about his NMC clause, and then consider how things could have been different when…Jakob Chychrun was available, or Mattias Ekholm himself? How does the Nils Lundkvist experiment look if he’s playing next to one of the above, or even Noah Hanifan, who’s currently on the trade block? Sure, this is wishful thinking. But it’s also illustrative of De Niro’s principle in Heat: do not get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.
Lindell’s contract should be reserved for players who can not only play the PK, and can drive play. It’s not the worst contract in the league, nor do I believe Lindell is a bad player. I just don’t believe he was ever the staple Dallas treated him as.
Nill’s current roster: This is also an easy one. Well, sort of. The correct answer is Ryan Suter. But I’m gonna talk about Evgenii Dadonov instead. To me the thing with Dadonov is that he filled a need at a good time. But so did Max Domi. Why the pressure to sign Dadonov? Dadonov helped Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston, but this wasn’t like the Matt Duchene situation. That’s the thing: it’s not like the Johnston line with Ty Dellandrea was even bad. Dellandrea was just too young to maximize them in a competitive window. But if you assume that prospects tend to get better while veterans tend to decline, then why the need to bring Dadonov back? Hell they could have simply used Craig Smith in the Dadonov role if they were skeptical of Dellandrea. Dadonov was and is a classic case of the anchoring effect.
How many 40 goal scorers will this team have at the seasons end? Four, five, possibly six? You tell me David…
I’m gonna say this: none. Even Roope Hintz, who has the most goals, would have been on pace for 36 goals through a full season. However, that doesn’t have to be discouraging for reasons I wrote about in late November. But I like this question because I think it poses a philosophical question:
If you had the choice between six 20 goals scorers and no 40 goals scorers, and three 40 goal scorers and no 20 goal scorers, which would you choose?
The Ben/Johnny/Daddy line is offensively broken. Any chance that Bourque is called up to replace Daddy and provide some shakeup.
Bourque’s not the player who’s gonna get that position. Stankoven is. Bourque is a natural center, and yes, it’s entirely possible he plays right wing to start given the center depth Dallas has, and will continue to have for awhile. But I just think Stankoven is the type of player Benn and Johnston need. I’m also a little higher on Bourque, however, so who knows.
How much does the COVID enforced flat cap affect your selection of Esa as the worst signing? I felt at the time with the expected cap growth that it would age well but with the flat cap it definitely is an overpay.
Same theme, different spin. Does Miro being out expose Hanley? Even though he was the top line D-pair the other night with Harley, he's still skating the fewest minutes. It is apparent that they know his limitations, but does this sink in to them? Or is this just a case of knowing to not exceed 55mph on the spare tire but that it is handy give its relatively small size/cap hit.