Stars Stuff: How the Central was won, lingering questions, and a look ahead at Dallas' 3rd consecutive Conference Final

Here we go again. Again.

If the third time really is a charm, then everything about this time to the Western Conference Finals certainly tracks.

In 2023, Dallas was armed with the additions of Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov. Thomas Harley was only averaging 16 minutes a night back then, and the Stars were still fresh off the 2022 run, in which it was patently clear that Jake Oettinger nearly stole the series from Calgary. Offense was supposed to take care of itself, but these things never do I guess. The offense started humming, but a combination of a thin blueline and Oettinger not living up to the hype of the Flames series saw the Stars lose to the eventual Cup winners (Vegas). Last year really seemed like the proverbial team of destiny, as the Stars were armed with arguably the best top four a team could boast. Turns out, Edmonton had other plans.

Things have changed. Harley is no longer a luxury, but an essential piece of Dallas’ blueline. While the defense is still something of an x-factor, Miro Heiskanen is up on opponents 46-13 in shot attempts, and 11-1 in high danger chances. An offense that used to be deep is now something better — outright deadly. And Oettinger? He’s playing the best hockey of his life.

It’s no wonder that Dallas has taken the lead as the Cup favorite according to some models. But wasn’t this the sound of the discourse going into Edmonton, last season? We’ll dig into that this week, but for now, both teams have momentum on their side, which either makes you uneasy, or confident depending on how you view the Stars’ success so far.

Let’s get nerdy: how Dallas beat Winnipeg

I found this series fascinating. It was a very different challenge than the one versus Colorado, and one that required the Stars to use brains over brawn, IMO. There were obviously a lot of key players. Alain Nasreddine and the penalty kill. Mikko Rantanen. Mikael Granlund. Thomas Harley. The latter three accounted for 69 percent of Dallas’ goals. It’s a nice accomplishment and all, but there must be an asterisk?

Not really, and sort of. While the math looks funny — Winnipeg outscored Dallas 14 to 13 in all situations — the Stars had a massive edge in expected goal share for the series.

Perhaps we can put away the “they don’t ask how, they ask how many?” chestnut once and for all. The Stars were a -1 and still won the series. How? That’s the important question isn’t it? It’s one of the reasons why chart huggers are interested in what is called ‘sequencing.’ For example (stealing this example from JFresh on Dimitri’s Discord), goal differential and points in the standings have a strong correlation. If you’re a +53, then chances are, you will make the playoffs, and are probably good. For Dallas, it was good enough to earn them second in the Central. So how did Tampa Bay, at +77, finish with less points? Sequencing. They lost games where the score was close, and won games where the score was not. Micah Blake McCurdy has a presentation on this.

“Just give me the TL;DR” version. Timing beats volume (?). Dallas scored more timely goals, and also had the massive edge in on the power play, 5-2. It was a nice departure from the Colorado series, where the Stars were massively outshot in both quantity and quality. So it was a team effort on special teams, and shot quality, but a one-man show when it came to sequencing. How, people!

Secondary scoring: what to expect when you (should be) expecting

I did a vibe check on Stars fans in the chat, and there was a common theme: where is everyone besides Team Finland?

For years now, Mason Marchment with Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin have been a holy trinity of regular season success. And for year(s) now, they have become something of an afterthought in the postseason. So far, they have three goals between the three of them across two playoff series. Should we expect that to change? Do they deserve better going into Edmonton?

Maybe. In the Jets series, Seguin and Duchene in particular were top five in expected goals.

As a group, they’ve been 53 percent in share of shot quality, which actually leads all trios. They’re shooting 5 percent, well below the Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston combos who are both above 13 percent at even-strength. In other words, regression is probably due.

This projects to be a big part of Dallas’ success moving forward. Whether or not that actually comes to fruition versus Edmonton is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t expect them to stay quiet. They’re fighting the puck luck demons a bit, and we know how that goes. However, they’re still fighting it in terms of possession (48 percent in shot attempt share). I suspect the increased presence of Miro Heiskanen, who quickly started looking like his old self, will help in this regard.

Programming Note

Thanks again subscribers. I’ll be a little more diligent this series in bringing the film room analysis, and some ‘Light Work’ features. Tomorrow will be a deep dive — and I do mean deep dive — for paid subscribers into the Edmonton series. I’ll have recaps up after each game, as well as at D Magazine with Robert Tiffin.

I’ve been more active during games on the Stars Discord channel, where anyone and everyone is invited (as long as you read the rules). In the meantime, for those that can spare a little extra, consider donating to Winnipeg’s True North Youth Foundation, which Mark Scheifele is a part of. You can donate here.

Now the real fun begins.