Stars Stuff: Joe Pavelski, leadership, getting ready for Traverse City, and the Heiskanen on his strongside debate

This weekend, hockey is officially back.

Hockey is back this weekend.

And no, not “technically.” Sure it’s not hockey at the highest levels, but it’s fun hockey. Just like in MMA, of course you want to see the best fight the best, but two fighters too evenly matched can be a snoozefest. Conversely, two terrible fighters can make magic. Not that the Traverse City players are “terrible” but you get the point.

For those used to seeing more teams, and more games, you may be wondering why there are only two games involving two teams. Simple: cost. The tournament itself has always been divisive for this reason. Thankfully everyone is doing their own thing, with the highlight this year being the 2024 Rookie Faceoff at the Toyota Sports Performance Center. I consider Macklin Celebrini the truth, so as soon as San Jose gets a serious NHL roster, Celebrini vs. Wyatt Johnston will be mandatory viewing.

Yesterday I wrote about the forwards at D Magazine because I think Dallas is in a fascinating spot where they’re primed to be elite, perhaps even moreso than last season, but given their ambition—they also can’t miss. That, to me, is the essence of the season: how its youthful core evolves, and takes over, not just as talented young players but as emerging leaders.

Not many contenders have stories like this, and that also explains why Traverse City will be pretty barren with forward talent. However, going back to the MMA analogy, that’s not to say we’ll end up seeing bad hockey.

On Joe Pavelski, philosophy, and leadership

I had a discussion on Twitter the other day about Joe Pavelski, and what his loss would mean for Dallas’ leadership. Jason, a fun and loyal follower, was sick and tired of me downplaying Pavelski’s absence (I’m kidding; he was a total sweetheart about it). And his argument was simple—one I hadn’t actually considered until then—was that whatever Pavelski was on the ice in the twilight of his career, or whatever those pesky little analytics argued, he was the quintessential player’s player: everybody respects him, everybody loves him, and everybody aspires to be a little (or a lot) like him. Is it any coincidence that Dallas’ deepest runs in the Jim Nill era have been under Pavelski’s watch? Won’t that, at minimum, hurt?

"You can’t measure a person’s heartbeat,” as Derek Jeter would say, having never heard of an electrode. But kidding aside, I get it. You need leaders, right? Or…do you? I’m not being funny either. There aren’t many Great Man Theories I subscribe to, not because there are no Great Men, but because I want to know the answer to the following question first: did a leader like Pavelski make these recent Dallas squads successful, or did these recent Dallas squads make Pavelski a leader? If we want to analyze what makes Pavelski a great leader, then we should first ask what on-ice conditions helped him become one for Dallas. To that end, it’s worth remembering who Pavelski was before being paired with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. In case you forgot, he was a 30-point player that provoked all kinds of questions about whether that contract was worth it. Then the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs happened.

And this is leaving aside types of leaders. Nikita Kucherov is probably not anyone’s idea of a leader, but he’s a puck psychopath who scored 66 points through two playoff runs that resulted in two Cups. So yes, Pavelski’s leadership will be missed, and time will tell just how much. But ‘Great Men’ don’t win Cups. Great Teams do.

Traverse City expectations

Traverse City is gonna be fun because it’s hockey, and we miss it, but if you’re looking for NHL quality talents, there’s Lian Bichsel, Emil Hemming, and that’s it. If you missed my rankings, then check it out.

If you’re Dallas’ pro scouts, you’re watching Bichsel closely. He’s such a fascinating, unique player, and we’ve broken his game down extensively here.

Tales From The Clipped: The 2023-2024 Lian Bichsel story

But if the team considers him an NHL option this season, they’re gonna watch with a critical eye. He’s good at a lot of things you wouldn’t expect from a self-proclaimed “gorilla” (his words not mine), but his biggest challenge will be his puck control. Can he make the simple play instead of the elegant one? I feel like I saw that in the Calder Cup playoffs following his Sweden run, but the challenge from here on out won’t be for him to stop using his instincts altogether, but how to integrate them into the NHL pace.

Beyond that, Emil Hemming will be the player to watch. He’s the only other first round pick on the Traverse City roster, and with Dallas’ track record, he’ll get to prove he’s further along in his development than others despite being one of the youngest. Christian Kyrou, Niilopekka Muhonen, Angus MacDonell, and Arttu Hyry will be the others worth keeping close tabs on. (The insanely diligent EPRinkside crew had Matthew Seminoff at #8 in their Stars prospect rankings. I didn’t have Seminoff in my top 15, but they know puck and I don’t, so feel free to highlight him too.)

A couple of invites caught my attention in 20-year old, left shot center Jake Karabela (Washington drafted him in the fifth round in 2022 but elected not to sign him this year), and recently-undrafted Kingston center Gabriel Frasca. I don’t know a thing about them, but I figured I’d see if Mitchell Brown had any three-zone data on them, and sure enough, he did!

Don’t know what you’re looking at and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Mitchell Brown’s tracking data.

Karabela looks like a multi-layered offensive center while Frasca looks generic good.

Data and visual courtesy of Mitchell Brown.

Gone are the days of a star-studded cast (well…only a year ago), but fun should be had by all.

Miro Heiskanen on his strongside

The DLLS show had a great segment on an old debate: should Heiskanen be on his strongside? It was particularly great to hear a player’s perspective. I’ve spilled too much blood on this topic, so I’m not gonna rage against this machine today, so let’s make this short and sweet.

How has Heiskanen’s offense rated in terms of:

• (blue) shift-to-shift goal generation above a healthy scratch defender when adjusted for minutes (xEVO per 60)

• (yellow) shift-to-shift goal generation above a healthy scratch defender when adjusted for minutes but combining even strength and the power play (xOff per 60)

• (green) And the bottom line net differential when weighed against defensive metrics as well (expected wins above replacement, adjusted for minutes)?

Don’t know what these numbers mean and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Evolving-Hockey’s Goals and Wins Above Replacement stat.

The data couldn’t be more stark in terms of offense. Heiskanen on his strongside hit career highs expected goals above replacement per 60, and expected total offense. However, after a “down” year his sophomore season, he slowly started to adjust, and in point of fact, his total value — owning to a very strong defensive performance (last season was his strongest when looking at defensive GAR — has never been stronger. However, how much of that is a function of getting better as a player versus being offensively and defensively unleashed on his weakside?

This is just the cliffsnotes version. This is by no means a deep dive. Nonetheless, it cuts to the heart of the debate: no one questions whether Heiskanen can be elite regardless of side. The real challenge is figuring out of certain elements of his game are somewhat neutralized. Given Heiskanen’s defensive improvement, I don’t believe there’s a clear answer, but I would say there is a statistically relevant influence on his shift to shift offense.

Will it matter when all is said and done? This season projects to be one of many that could answer that once and for all.

Spits and Suds

If you missed our latest episode, now you won’t!

Gavin Spittle does such a fantastic job bringing Stars fans consistent coverage, be sure to follow him. I take him to task for knowing more about hockey than me, which defeats the purpose of bringing in an “analyst” but the dude is a total sweetheart on and off the air, so please continue supporting him.