Stars Stuff: Load management, shooting regression, an old blueline debate, Mavrik Bourque art, and (much) more!
Just because there's only a bit left doesn't mean it isn't loaded.
103 points is a lot. And not just because of the number, but because it represents two points ahead of Colorado, and five ahead of Vancouver for the top spot in the West. Their next seven games will only feature three playoff opponents. Needless to say, the Stars could very well finish as the best in the West, and potentially take home the President’s Trophy. (Currently tied with the Rangers, who have a higher points percentage.)
A lot of ink gets spilled over the Trophy’s “curse.” This is all plus-minus level gibberish to me. If Dallas wins the PT, is that supposed to be a bad thing? Should they intentionally drop games to avoid winning it? Teams do their best to win as many games as possible, and when it gets down to the marrow, they all lose in the end; everyone except one. Winning the PT doesn’t change this basic equation.
I get it. Statistically, PT winners don’t win Cups. And if we’re getting into the weeds of what it represents, it’s usually a sign of teams experiencing good health more than outright dominance. Hockey is, after all, quite luck-driven. In that context, the healthier you are, the more breaks you get. It’s a long season, hockey’s a grueling sport, etc etc. But Dallas can’t change any of this. If you want to play these meaningless game of superstitions, then why not consider that the last time Dallas won a Cup, they did so as PT winners?
Apologies for getting aggro, but this discussion is like taking a cheese grater to my brain. The only worthwhile discussion here is the concept of load management. Should teams play their superstars fewer minutes in the regular season? Should players get to take games off to better ensure optimal health? Maybe, maybe not. In terms of the science, some say the broad applications don’t prevent injuries, some sports show higher risk factors which makes it potentially applicable, and as far as hockey goes — it’s understudied. Regardless, that’s the interesting discussion here.
Interestingly, Dallas superficially plays like this discussion is part of the war room. No forward on the Stars plays more than 20 minutes a night.
Conversely, Colorado’s entire top six plays as much as Dallas’ top three, and Colorado’s top three might as well be defensemen.
The same holds true-ish of the Rangers.
And the Oilers.
Even a team you wouldn’t expect, like Carolina, has Aho and Jarvis playing upwards of 20 minutes a night.
Granted, I have no idea that Dallas factors any of this into their gameplan. Even if they did, I think we can safely say it’s a luxury. They’re arguably the deepest team in the league. They don’t need to play their top players super minutes, as any one of their top three lines can take over a shift. It also helps that they’re not carrying any dead weight. Much as I complain about Radek Faksa (mainly his contract and his offense), it’s also a luxury to have a fourth line you don’t need to give courtesy minutes like they do in New York with Rempe just so he can pick a fight. That line has been crushing their minutes, 53 percent in expected goal share, and outshooting opponents 160 to 102.
All in all, it’s a good gig for everyone involved. For now…
Nils Lundkvist keeps pleading his case (but it won’t matter)
I really enjoyed Robert Tiffin’s quote on Twitter.
I'm not particularly passionate about this, but the last couple weeks have convinced me that Ryan Suter needs Nils Lundkvist more than the penalty kill needs Jani Hakanpää.
I’ve never actually held out any sort of hope that Lundkvist will continue playing once Jani Hakanpaa returns. And I’ve done my best to give weight to Hakanpaa’s legitimacy. So I get it. We all get it. But this is the reality of a sport uninterested in “development.” You can be better than the man next to you, but if the man next to you fits a profile the coach personally likes more, then it doesn’t matter. Lundkvist has pulled himself up from his bootstraps, in my view. Unfortunately he’s wearing the wrong kind of bootstraps.
C’est la vie.
A reader’s modest proposal
First I want you to calm down. Second, one of my readers entered the chat with an immodest proposal: Roope Hintz for Tage Thompson.
I know, I know. Listen, I love this kind of stuff. No it doesn’t make sense and the logistics are their own unseen web, but it’s a lot of fun. Coming fresh off a piece that argued what Hintz is doing is actually quite amazing given his upgrade in tough minutes, well that’s just hopping right into the thunderdome armed with a spoon, and I love it.
Would I do it in this bizarro world? Meh. I’ve often used Thompson as an example of why defense in top centers is so critical; a counterpoint to why I think Lundkvist has an important role, however small — offense lower down the lineup matters. Buffalo has been a bad team, and I think Thompson’s lack of defensive ability has a causal factor. However, Thompson has also made huge strides defensively this year. (You’d see nothing but red on the defensive side in previous years.)
I’m an easy sell on this idea because Thompson is one of my favorite players to watch. At his best, he’s a cheat code. At his worst, he scores a lot and doesn’t defend. Him developing defensively will probably earn Buffalo a spot to the playoffs next year (we say that every year, but I think the Sabres finally break through next season — helps that the East sucks.)
Is there a reason why I’m giving this silly proposal oxygen beyond just showing a reader some respect? Yea: I think it shows how much even Stars fans underrate Hintz. Take away his speed, and not much stands out; at least not for an elite player. He’s good defensively, but he’s not physical. He’s a good passer, but his puck handling is only functional rather than high level. He does more damage in the winger’s lanes than in the center of the ice, and he seems quiet on nights when he’s not scoring. But all of that ignores all the little things he does well. It’s worth remembering that he was drafted for his two-way ability. His off-puck movement and spatial awareness in all three zones has stayed with him. He’s a blue collar forward in a sports car body. That makes his shift to shift impact one of a kind, regardless of how we think we perceive him.
Shooting regression: a digression
“Regression” is probably a word that means many different things to many different people; at least in sports terms. A team that wins a lot and then suddenly stops winning = regression. A player scoring lots of goals and then suddenly not scoring lots of goals = regression. Vice, and versa.
Is Dallas due for some offensive regression? It would seem so.
Out of the top five teams in goals above expected, only Colorado is what I would consider truly legit. So what does this mean? Can we expect Dallas to stop scoring? Will the goals run dry, and as a direct result, so will the losses? Will they…regress?
Probably.
But it’s important to remember how Oxford defines regression to begin with: a return to a former or less developed state.
There are all sorts of positive takeaways from this; namely that Dallas has a lot of shooting talent on the team. There are also some negatives — namely that Edmonton should scare you a little. But at the end of the day, this is simply a raw stat that gives us a little insight into what’s driving Dallas’ finishing rates. It doesn’t tell us anything about how their goal-scoring is sequenced.
Thankfully, Micah Blake McCurdy (taken from Prashanth Iyer) has a handy chart to show how that goal scoring sequences out from period to period. Dallas plays tight in the first period, but they’re all momentum from then on out.
Sidenote: How Washington is in a playoff spot is one of the most bizarre hockey stories of all time.
Something else worth pointing out is that outside of Carolina, they have what I would consider the ideal sequencing. Winnipeg keeps the game too tight for two periods. Vegas doesn’t seem to truly ahead pull ahead outside of an outburst. Colorado and Edmonton are pure third acts. Dallas is always pressing, always consistent.
Then there’s this.
If luck is a pendulum, then one swing in one area might result in a swing in another area. Stars fans have known this better than most. How many years did the Stars experience extreme ‘unluck’ when it came to shooting? Granted, we know why. There were absolutely factors that influenced Dallas’ shooting inability. I wrote extensively about it. Likewise, there are factors influencing their breaks (more a designed attack rather than something loosely planned). Point being, the foundation is already there.
In some ways, these charts are a look at the statistical breaks (and not breaks) teams have received.
Regression doesn’t mean “getting worse.” Returning to a former state for Dallas can mean returning to a “less shooty version of the Stars” which does not imply that they will lose.
Programming note
This is kind of a dick move.
But I just want paid subscribers to know that they’ll get to see the Mavrik Bourque artwork for my ‘The Other Stars’ paid post tomorrow. It’ll have clips from this weekend’s games in Cedar Park, the usual ramblings of a wannabe professional, but with Logan Stankoven called up and never going down, I’ll turn ‘The Other Stars’ into a broad prospect rundown. After all, we have Lian Bichsel to talk about too! Also, there are a lot of new faces in Cedar Park that are worth highlighting.
I get it. I know plenty of readers who either aren’t interested, or don’t believe in the very concept of a paid subscription. But you wouldn’t walk into a bookstore and expect to take home a piece of writing for free would you?
Just saying. Given the current crop of paid work, it’s not like ‘writing books’ is for lack of trying on my part.
16 wins in a row with Lundkvist in the lineup!
Is it more because of the presence of Lundkvist (making Suter better) or more because of the absence of Hakanpaa (making Suter worst)?
Since we are always hearing about NHL coaches that wants to win far more that they want to "develop", maybe it's time to walk the talk?
I appreciate the breakdown on Thompson. Statistically he is defending better than I expected. I would absolutely love to have him but not at the cost of Hintz. In my limited exposure to him he feels like a Super Saiyan version of Mush