Starscasting: What the Blues loss "says" about Dallas' future
Spitballing the Stars future.
I feel like the series of gamestates versus St. Louis on Saturday night was a perfect encapsulation of the Dallas Stars season. The 2-0 lead represents the first stretch of the season when they started out 10-3-1. The 3-2 deficit represents their constantly trailing through the year (they’re 19th in time spent trailing per game), with the 4-3 overtime outcome representing a team that’s on the cusp of being who we think they are, but falling just short of expectation.
The Stars are, of course, a good team. They’re third in the Central, and they have a lot of players who can take over a game. Not enough was said about that passing sequence from the Duchene line on that first Blues goal. On Sportsnet’s YouTube channel, we get a thousand different angles on some by-the-number Leafs goal, but nothing on the filth sauce between Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, and Mason Marchment? Of course, this line’s unexpected brilliance has been evident since Game 1, but I appreciated how much it felt like a dagger to my Duchene: Prime Mover argument with all three playing essential roles on the goal.
It was also good to see Ty Dellandrea get on board. He’s been something of a modest lightning rod for fans who think he’s nothing more than a depth forward. While I disagree, I get the skepticism. Unlike Nils Lundkvist, Dellandrea’s non-NHL replacements have gamebreaking talent. And even now with the way Craig Smith and Sam Steel have played, you could easily argue that he’s Dallas’ 13th-best forward (whereas Lundkvist belongs in the top six no matter how many mistakes he makes) — although I would counter that Dellandrea, having been drafted as a center, could easily take Radek Faksa’s place.
Nonetheless, Dellandrea showed enough last year that he deserves a heavier look, assuming he knocks that penalty crap off. All in all, it was a good stretch for Dallas given the Jake Oettinger injury. But good is not the standard; especially against a team like St. Louis, who never stopped pressing once they took the lead, whereas Dallas...
All in all though, Dallas being a good team doesn’t get us any closer to finding out if they’re a great team.
The future of the offense
It’s been awhile since I dedicated time to watching some MMA. This weekend was UFC 296. The event was nothing to write home about except for Josh Emmett’s brilliant KO of Bryce Mitchell. I bring up Emmett in particular because Dallas’ offense is a lot like a knockout artist: always dangerous. However, watch Emmett versus Ilia Topuria and you see the difference between a knockout artist and a process-oriented knockout artist. Topuria, unlike Emmett, has a jab to setup his biggest punches, movement to progress or deaccelerate his attack, and the defensive maneuvering to attack comfortably without losing the fight to his opponent’s power. Dallas is more like Emmett than Topuria — who I would liken to a Vegas or an LA.
It’s quite visible in their even strength share of shot quality.
That’s not to cast judgment — well, it is. Dallas has knockout power. But they don’t have much of a process. And I think that explains why this team, like last year, will always be a team that swings harder when they have the momentum of the power play on their side. The trade deadline could change things, but unless Nill is able to swing an unheard-of deal, don’t expect much movement.
To clarify, this is largely about the team’s offense. As you can see, their defense rates quite highly.
The future of the defense
“If the defense rates so highly, then why do we complain about the blueline?”
It’s always been important, for me at least, to emphasize the problem with Dallas’ blueline. It was the thesis of my article on Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell in September. Defensively, they rate highly as a group. Out of 123 pairs with at least one hundred minutes together, the top two pairs are 29th and 37th in expected goals against. Again, that’s purely expected goals against.
Why is that important? Because if you look at the differential or expected goals versus expected goals against — or expected goal share — they drop to 31st and 72nd. You can probably guess why. Being good and being dynamic are two different things.
Breaking out of the zone is kind of a big deal, and one of the things I’d argue is connected to the offense not being process-oriented. In other words, when three-quarters of your blueline go in reverse rather than like this, you’re not gonna gain offensive territory, which is key to sustainable offense. And just in case you’re sick of looking at charts, Darryl Belfry has a lot of good clips on the art of exiting. Between Drew Doughty…
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And Jordan Spence…
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That Kings team has it figured out. It’s something you’ll hear me go back to again and again: Dallas can punch hard. But can they box?
Goaltending
I’ve said before, but I don’t believe we need to have the Jake Oettinger discussion; just a Jake Oettinger discussion.
This year has been brutal, and there are no two ways about it. What’s even more bizarre is that he’s been elite on the PK, and one of the reasons why Dallas’ PK is top 5 (the other being Scott Wedgewood, who’s also been good on the PK).
Quick note: each bar is important but for the layfan’s sanity, the last bar to the right is the most crucial, as blue bars mean a goalie is overperforming while the orange bars mean a goalie is underperforming in proportion to the shots they should be expected to save. Although funny story if you’re not familiar with this stuff: Evolving-Hockey uses Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) because the NHL doesn’t actually track where a shot was taken if it’s blocked.
However, here’s Oettinger last year.
And the year before.
I’m optimistic that Oettinger will eventually regain his form. However, it’s not unheard of for good goalies to have difficult years. Throw in the injury, and there’s definitely room for pessimism. But for the most part, I’d expect Oettinger to be fine once the playoffs are around the corner. He’s been one of the top goalies for the last three years when you look at goals save above expected. However, the asterisk I’d add is that he’s just shy of the truly elite. Unfortunately Dallas is getting the worst version of him this season, but the silver lining is that they haven’t been getting consistent EV goaltending, and yet are still top three in the Central.
Quick preview versus Seattle
Not a whole lot to say about Seattle. Missing Brakovsky, Schwartz, Eberle, Schultz, and Grubauer, they’ve managed to play really strong defense, and jack shit else. It sucks to see Matty Beniers struggle because I think he’s fun to watch when he’s on, but it should be a layup for Dallas. Granted, we saw what layups like Ottawa and St. Louis looked like, but you never know.
The most difficult part of navigating these waters is that the race to get a wild card matchup rather than Colorado in Round 1 will be how these teams treat these “winnable” matchups.
Heskanen lost his man on the overtime goal. I’m not the only one one who’s noticed that he never plays the man, he plays the puck, so opposing forwards with speed just skate outside him, behind the net with possession, or like in overtime right across the goalie’s face. This is not a rare occurrence. Yes, the actual goal scorer was supposed to be covered by Seguin, who probably should have had some popcorn and a seat while he only watched the play.
I’m not saying Heskanen isn’t really good, I’m saying he isn’t really good when his world class stick misses, and opponents are learning how to avoid that stick. That’s not fatigue, that’s not Suter. That’s how he plays, soft.
I am "happy" to read someone like you saying, with better words and content, that this team is not yet a Cup contender. I know you did not use that term specifically but my guess is that it was what you meant by "Good instead of Great".
Jim Nill needs to go the extra mile here and add that Top 4 D that will put this team in the "Great" category. A part of me wants that Top 4 D just to see how they will handle the "Suter" realignment in the lineup.
On another subject, it seem like you are taking punches in The Athletic comments section. What is going on there?