Stray Observations (Game 32): With a hook to the ribs, Minnesota beats Dallas 5-2

At least they won the special teams battle.

I know a lot of the writing here is detached at times, but I can’t recall the last time I genuinely enjoyed a season on all levels. Perhaps that says more about me, and the sports grumpy lens through which I view hockey. But I want to read, write, and learn about all things puck. To that end, this season has brought me face to face with my own assumptions about hockey, not to mention, its constant evolution. For example, how much can special teams drive a group? This season will be a case study on if Dallas’ obnoxiously good power play can be that indication. Do teams need to choose between the rush or the cycle? Or is there a third option? But this also applies to the players; especially the way the AHL blue line has played like anything but.

So naturally, this would be the game to test that patience and good-nature. But not really. This isn’t the NFL, or the NBA. Great teams always look great in other sports. In hockey, great teams can and will lay an egg over an 82-game season. And that’s pretty what much what happened. Dallas laid an egg. It happens. And it almost happened how the analytics said it would.

There’s not a ton to dig deep into. This game was simultaneously predictable (it was a well-earned victory from Minnesota, who dominated for stretches), and off-balance. Miro Heiskanen and Zach Bogosian’s goals were on basically nothing plays. That Matt Boldy pass to Marcus Johansson? Certain things just can’t be defended. Kind of like Jason Robertson with a clean look.

I’m not trying to excuse anything. Like I’ve always said. We’re here to analyze and overthink stuff. The things Dallas struggled with I’ve already talked about, and the things they excelled at I’ve already talked about. For one night, a Central Division rival had all the juice, and the outcome reflected the process. There’s little reason to dwell of anything else, except to say that Jake Oettinger did his best.

The Stars have a few interesting games up next. Florida, then L.A.: two teams that are not what they seem (the Kings a total goofball team due for some negative regression, and the Panthers due for positive regression despite major injuries). Elite teams are not perfect teams. Thanks to the nature of hockey, they can even look like bad teams. But one game doesn’t make a team.

If only the injuries would stop…

Special imbalance

Dallas is 11-0 in the last 10 games on special teams. 11 goals on the power play, 0 goals against on the penalty kill. “You said you wouldn’t talk about their even-strength shot metrics, right? Right?!” I’m sorry. I know. I just wanted to say one more thing. Which is that their special teams dominance shows us a team that can be coached into shift-to-shift efficiency. Why isn’t the same true of their even-strength play? Even the PK was pretty good when they weren’t getting the right breaks. That’s ultimately my thing. It’s not that I think things won’t change. It’s that I don’t believe they have excuses.

A nerdonaut digression

Wait a second. I told you I’m a man of my word. The other day I posted one of these immediately following the Winnipeg game. One of my fellow nerdonauts noticed that the chart the day after was markedly different. The reason is because data that gets backfilled can be quite significant. For example, a shot that happened right after a giveaway, or a shot that was later registered as a tip. That last bit is important precisely because if a shot gets turned into a tip, that also changes the location, which is typically the variable that affects shot probability the most. I wanted to highlight this because the Bad Team Trying to Rationalize Their Bad Analytics piece that was posted yesterday reminded me how much credit these public models deserve for the care and upkeep that goes into them.

Matt Duchene’s place

It was good to see Duchene get a few shifts next to Mavrik Bourque and Justin Hryckowian. It’s a funny thing. Dallas has decent forward depth, but it’s a very specialist kind of depth, with offensive lines doing offensive things and defensive lines doing defensive things. There is no twain. Perhaps Duchene can merge the two. This is what makes the trade deadline particularly unique. If you listened to the show with Gavin yesterday, then you know I’m a bit of Jaden Schwartz stan. Is he a silver bullet? Obviously not. But I do think there’s something to adding to that ‘twain’ so to speak.

Meandering Strays

• I’m gonna have to disqualify Vladislav Kolyachonok from being mentioned in the strays since I always do, but while the slide on the 2-on-1 is usually a no no (I like the philosophy that a player should defend to their instincts, but I wish that instinct would be coached out of them so that their instincts weren’t to slide by default) but Kolyachonok did what he had to do and prevented Minnesota from even getting a shot on net.

• I’d like to see Justin Hryckowian get some of those top six shifts that Sam Steel has received. He has some real playmaking chops, but more than that, he has timing and a willingness to time his passes in traffic or against pressure due to his fearlessness. Steel is fearless too, but he’s not a natural playmaker.

• Roope Hintz with Jason Robertson and Jamie Benn were brutal. Granted, minutes had a lot to do with that, but there were shifts where the Joel Eriksson Ek had them for lunch and dinner.

• Another player that deserves a shoutout is Colin Blackwell. Continues to be aces on the PK, and like Hryckowian, is a player I think deserves a quick cameo with how much Steel has turned into Janmark (I don’t necessarily mean that as an insult).

• I don’t know if Minnesota will ever be a good offensive team. They probably won’t. But Danila Yurov, despite being just 21, looks for real and I thought he meshed well with Kaprizov and Tarasenko (who is simply washed, let’s face it).

• Edit: Forgot to talk about the Hintz injury. But then what can I say? It’s just yet another obstacle Dallas has to deal with that’s nobody’s fault. Tough break, but at least the Stars have a lot of breathing room in the standings.